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NC-08: Hayes Leads Kissell by 5 in New Poll

by: James L.

Tue Sep 02, 2008 at 2:05 PM EDT


Public Policy Polling (8/25-27, likely voters, 7/2-5 in parens):

Larry Kissell (D): 39 (36)
Robin Hayes (R-inc): 44 (43)
Thomas Hill (L): 4 (7)
(MoE: ±3.2%)

Hayes still maintains the edge, on account of his strength among Democrats (19% to Kissell's 69%), Republicans (83-8) and Independents (43-27). But he's still well under 50%, and there are ominous signs up the ballot in this R+3 district: Kay Hagan is leading Dole by 45-41 in the state's U.S. Senate race, and Obama and McCain't are tied at 43% each.

This one is gonna be a slugfest.

James L. :: NC-08: Hayes Leads Kissell by 5 in New Poll
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Poll: glass half full and rising
Kissell is closing in on Hayes, up 3 points while Hayes gains 1 point, Kissell slashes gap almost by half.

About that large Undecided vote in the Presidential, fully 14% Undecided: There's nothing to be Undecided about. Except that Obama is black. He started this race black. He is still black. He will be black on November 4. Those voters are trying to decide if they can get over their lifelong prejudices and vote for the better man for the job. I think they can. The fact that they are Undecided now, and not fully committed to McSame, is very positive.

Obama will carry the state in November, Hagan will become the new Senator, and Larry Kissell will be elected to the House.


I'm a southerner, more
of a Southerner than North Carolina. I live in Louisiana, I've talked to hundreds of white people about this election. For nobody has it been as simple as Obama is black. Many people dislike for reasons related to that, but none just because he's black, many have misinformed reasons, about his racial views and religion. Most are undecided because they don't like McCAin but don't feel comfortable with Obama because of his inexperience and percieved lack of concrete ideas, they have this idea that all Obama is is a bunch of talk.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

[ Parent ]
what I mean is
feel free to talk when you know what you're talking about. If there is any racism involved, it's subconcious, people are harder on Obama than they would be if he were white, more skeptical, and they don't even realize they are, but that's a lot different than actually having trouble voting for him because of his race.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

[ Parent ]
I think this is true
...but the difficulty is that subliminal racism is much harder to push back against.  People will reach for the inexperienced or just talk arguments to rationalize their dislike rather than the other way around.  I do think racism plays a part in that but even the person doing it does not acknowledge it (not even to themselves).

[ Parent ]
I'm a great-grandson of a Colonel in the Confederate Army
I grew up in Texas, and attended segregated schools until my junior year in high school, when the first black male and three black females transferred into the white school from the black school on the other side of town. I went to an all-white religious college that didn't need to announce that it was "desegregating" as some Trustees earnestly explained to a few of us, because no black had ever applied, so none ever refused, so it had never been segregated. I sat with others in a dorm room bull session listening to David explain how they played "ni@@erknocking" in his hometown. In that game you and your friends drive down the road with a 2x4 in the back seat. When you see a ni@@er walking along the side of the road, you push the 2x4 out the window and smack him in the back of the head with it as you drive past.

And while I live in NYC now, I go home for in a total of two months every year. I've talked to dozens of white friends and family members there about this election. For only a few has it been as simply expressed as that Obama is black. But back before the primaries, I asked an 80ish friend of my mother who she liked. Her husband recently retired from president of the local Democratic Club, and they are both lifelong Dems. I was not surprised that she said she liked Edwards, in part because he was against the war, but Hillary would be O.K. Then I pressed her a bit asking, Well, what about this Obama guy, he was against the war back when Edwards voted for it. And she replied, "Once a ni@@er, always a ni@@er." The good news is that last month he told me that they are Undecided.

I agree that many people also say they dislike Obama for reasons tangentially related to his race, but they are less outspoken about the essential underlying reason. Instead they fasten onto "misinformed" reasons, about his views and religion, his "inexperience" and alleged lack of concrete ideas, and the other talking points they pick up from listening to hate talk radio or to those who do listen to the dog whistles.

I believe that most of the Undecided friends and family members that I have spoken to don't like McSame, Bush, or the Repubs this year, yet they don't feel comfortable with Obama because of his race, bottom line. I think many of them will get over it by Election Day. They are good people, and the experience will make them better people.

And son, wipe the snot from your nose. You have no right to assert that I don't know what I am talking about here.


[ Parent ]
I had you pegged
as another lifetime northerner talking out of your ass about racism in the south.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

[ Parent ]
Well, now that we've cleared that up
I do defend myself but I don't hold grudges. And I generally appreciate your comments here and look forward to more.

[ Parent ]
If Obama and Hagan
are doing that well in this district, I think Kissell may just pull it out in the end.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

Support among Dems
The reason Hayes must be drawing fairly well amongst Dems must be name identification or am I wrong?  Larry has been doing everything he can from what I can tell.  I guess if some Dems want to believe that Robin Hayes isn't selling them out that's their choice.  It really is sad though because there aren't many votes like the CAFTA votes where a member of Congress knows the result will directly harm their constituents and gets away with it.  

Please donate to amcharities.org to help build more after school centers in the Miami area.  

23, Democrat, IA-2


Name ID
but also Dixiecrat overhang. PPP put out a recent study that shows that native NC Democrats are far more likely to vote for Republicans up and down the ballot than "migrant" Dems in NC are.

[ Parent ]
Enthusiam
Enthusiasm is also going to play a big part in this.  In 2006 the Kissell campaign almost pulled it out by having a bigger and better ground game.

This year, with Obama on the ticket, with more resources, and with more staff they are going to continue to have a big edge on "game day", while Hayes is simply trying to buy another election through tv advertising.

If Larry is within the MOE on November 3rd his team will put him in office on election day.  

"Keep the Faith"


What's the chance that there are a lot of people that are underpolled?
Are there such people in NC-08?  e.g. any universities, bastions of young people, people who don't have land lines for whatever reason, or anything like that?

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

The 8th
One thing I'm not sure about but would be interested to know is how well Hayes does among black voters, particularly those in the northwest corner of the 8th.  Concord is Hayes hometown, more famous for being the home of Lowe's Motor Speedway and Kannapolis is another town in the same vicinity, they both have a pretty decent size of black voters and I wonder what kind of shape he is in with them. As for colleges there are only two small, private schools that I am aware of Barber-Scotia College a small, predominantly black school which lost its accredidation in 2004 but reopened this year and St. Andrews Presbyterian College a small liberal arts school in the southeast corner of the district.  On the whole this region is pretty poor and hit hard by job loss because of free trade.  I really want to get involved in volunteering for his campaign to some extent, but I simply don't have the time.  I live in the semi-adjacent 10th and go to school in this 8th district, but life as a college athlete for a freshman has been a tough adjustment so far.

[ Parent ]
Hey! Volunteer in the 10th!
We're going to need more help there than in NC-08!

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
I know
If I was a year younger I would most definitely be, but as I said being a college athlete makes that damn near impossible, I have fall break off from October 3 - 9, that's it.  I have donated to both campaigns however.

[ Parent ]
Obama - racism
I live in western Pennsylvania and I can tell you that some people openly admit that they will NOT vote for Obama because he is black.  They say he will only work for blacks or other lame excuses.  Others really think he is a secret Muslim.  Since this whole area is and has always been lily white, these ideas are a puzzle.  Governor Rendell said Obama's race will probably cost him 3-5 percentage points but that on the whole, people who won't vote for him because he is black were not going to vote for a Democrat anyway.  Rendell is a really smart politician and I am confident that he will see to it that Obama wins Penssylvania even if he loses the central areas.

I think Rendell's statement is the real truth here.
The non-supporters based on overt racism are from all regions of the country and would not vote for Hillary, Kerry, Gore, Biden or anyone the Democrat would run president in recent years.

The subliminal problem voters may be a little different in one voting segment, senior citizens.  Many of these would vote for the types of other Democrats I listed but do have an inner voice holding them back on Barack.  

I was really pleased watching CSPAN today covering Biden in-front of an almost all Jewish audience in Deerfield Beach FL.  They have struggled a great deal to get past the Black thing and were in some cases willing to use the Obama Bad on Israel meme to provide them cover.  I felt that Biden, who these elderly seem to trust, got to their better angels within very effectively.  I am optimistic about this years voters.


[ Parent ]
The Yankees!
My first experience living outside the South was in Butler, Pennsylvania. It's a beautiful region with good people and I loved it. But I did encounter some racist talk up close. Probably because my mouth was just drippin' with "y'all" and "m'am" while I was swallowin' every final 'g' some folks felt free to share with me their anti-black hostility. This was at a time when the Civil Rights Movement was often on the news and Civil Rights legislation was pending in Congress.

I was spending a summer living with my aunt and uncle, both in their 60s. My Yankee uncle had gone down to Texas after college -- Go West, young man! -- many many years before, and he'd met and married my aunt in Austin. Came the Depression, they moved back to PA to save what was left of the family business. By the time I got there, 30 years later, I was able to go to work in their busy little candy factory where the mostly women workers were all of East European ancestry.

The town had very few blacks, far fewer than any place I'd ever seen in my part of Texas. The first black person I met was Mrs. White, the washerwoman who took the dirty laundry from my aunt and returned it clean and folded a week later. They'd had this business relationship for most of the 30 years that my aunt had been keeping the books and running the office at the candy factory. So when Mrs. White asked my aunt if she could help her son get a job, it was a very personal request. My aunt discussed it with my uncle and they agreed that the muscular young man -- heading off to college in the fall on a football scholarship -- could work like the other man, in the cook room, the hottest, heaviest, hardest job in the place.

That position meant the black guy would be out of the way of the other workers for a lot of the time as he worked up a batch of the liquid sugar concoction. That was until he came over to chop it into bits that fell onto a moving belt that delivered them to the ladies who shaped and wrapped the candy.

The young black man's first day at work caused a commotion. When he went to work in the cook room, the first lady on the moving belt, a longtime employee with some crew boss responsibilities, marched herself to the office and angrily informed my aunt, "I ain't working with no ni@@er!"

My mouth popped open. All around my Texas hometown I knew places where blacks worked alongside whites. My aunt did not approach the matter as an issue of custom or fairness. She took it as a challenge to her management prerogatives, and shot back, "I do the hiring and firing around here. If you want to quit, I can hire somebody to take your place. Now go back to work." Well, that ended that.

I'm sure the young Mr. White had a hard summer with his coworkers (I was too shy and intimidated to talk to him much), but he stuck it out. Going off to college broke would have been harder no doubt. (He eventually became a fireman in Western Pennsylvania. Bet that wasn't so easy either, but maybe the candy factory experience helped to prepare him.)

My aunt often spoke about the ni@@er woman who did her wash for years, and her son, the ni@@er who worked for her that one hot summer. Even then the word made me cringe because my mother had taught me NEVER to use such offensive terms.

Then years later, working in NYC, I had a boss who I heard twice -- yes, two times -- check with some staffers about the currently correct terminology regarding blacks, African-Americans, People of Color. But he never hired or promoted a ni@@er -- nor a black nor an African-American. His language was always carefully correct but his actions were terribly wrong.

That boss always made me think of my aunt some 10 or 20 years before, stuck using the offensive word of a passing era, but doing the right thing. A lesson learned in Western Pennsylvania, not to judge a book by its cover, or to judge people by their language alone.


[ Parent ]
I remember hearing someone comment that the North was more racist than the South
for some reason.  Any truth to that?

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
Different
The racial stuff comes out differently.

Southern whites historically were comfortable having black people live close by, and in the small towns that is still true. So when Southern school districts finally did away with racial segregation, in the towns and smaller cities the classrooms were filled with mixes of whites kids and black kids who quickly got along pretty well.

The big Southern cities, alas, have become more like the Northern cities, where the races are divided in their neighborhoods (and therefore their schools), by zoning and redlining and steering by real estate agents. That residential and educational segregation has been very very slow to change in the North, and to my eye shows no sign of easing in the Southern cities.


[ Parent ]
Good points
Probably the worst cases of desegregation occured in big northern cities like Boston where bussing of students often turned very violent.

[ Parent ]
From the Kissell playbook
Segall is running an ad about CAFTA in AL 3

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...


But how does he feel...
...about SHAFTA?

[ Parent ]

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