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AK-Gov: Palinmania

by: Crisitunity

Fri Aug 29, 2008 at 12:24 PM EDT


In case you haven't heard yet, John McCain's out-of-the-box Vice-Presidential pick is Sarah Palin, the governor of Alaska. Now let me start by saying: I'm baffled, because her lack of experience (two years as governor of one of the nation's smallest, and, let's face it, most unusual states... and prior to that, mayor of a town of about 7,000) dramatically undercuts his ability to hit Obama on the not-ready-to-lead charge.

On top of that, there's the mini-scandal associated with Trooper-gate, which revealed a rather vindictive and not so squeaky-clean Palin going after the head trooper who wouldn't fire her screw-up ex-brother-in-law. There's also the not-so-small matter of Alaska having only 3 electoral votes, although it does legitimately qualify as a swing state this year. Maybe after the Dem convention, the Republicans have realized the not-ready-to-lead thing just isn't going to work on Obama, and, despite the pleasant whiff of unity coming out of Denver, are banking on peeling off a few points' worth of PUMAs who may be attracted to a female pick (and Palin is one of the few prominent Republican women conservative enough that she won't irritate the base).

Anyway, let's step away from the Presidential politics; this is Swing State Project, after all! Here's the hypothetical: what if, for some reason, McCain/Palin wins? The next person in line is Lt. Gov. Sean Parnell. If the current vote count in the AK-AL race holds, it looks like Parnell might have his schedule free to take over as governor after all.

On the other hand, what if Parnell manages to squeak past Don Young in the recount (and since the person in charge of administering Alaskan elections is none other than Parnell, don't rule it out!), and then makes it past Ethan Berkowitz in the general? We discussed this very possibility, remote as it seemed at the time, in our VP Vacancy Speculation thread a few months ago. It turns out that the Alaska constitution and election statutes don't specify who the #3 person in the line of succession is, but an Attorney General opinion Alaska law allows the governor to designate a third person. The currently designated person is Republican Attorney General Talis Colberg.

There's one more possibility: what if Parnell wins AK-AL, but put in the position of being able to choose between being governor or representative, chooses the power of governor over the potential longevity of representative? Then, as far as I can tell, we'd be in immediate special election territory for the vacant House seat.

Your thoughts?

UPDATE: In this video (from several weeks ago), Palin admits that she doesn't really know what the VP does every day. Try doing that at your next job interview!

Crisitunity :: AK-Gov: Palinmania
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AK-Gov: Palinmania | 58 comments
Palin who?
I'm sure that's what most average Americans are thinking.  Once they realize the extent of her experience is being  Governor for less than 2 years after being Mayor of an obscure small town before that I doubt many will take the pick as anything more than pandering.

And as for drawing women to McCain?  Doubt it.  Once they realize she's foaming at the mouth anti-choice I doubt she'll play well with women.

They don't have the $ or the time
To tell her story with only 67 days to go...
[ Parent ]
My first concern
is what this does to the AK-Sen, AK-AL, and AK-Pres races.

I'm hoping that this doesn't damage our chances at AK-Sen and AK-AL, at least.

However, we had better start beating Palin over the head with Troopergate, and reminding people how this is yet another scandal.

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...

Not just Troppergate
Another useful thing we need to talk about is Gov. Palin's seemingly extremist views on social issues.  She's very anti-abortion, which isn't that big of a deal (It is as a wrong-headed position on an important issue, we're used to that from Republicans).  More disturbingly is that she seems to be a strong supporter of "intelligent design" -- basically a glossed-over creationism to teach in the public schools.  I wonder how that's going to go over with the centrist Hillary supporters this VP pick was meant to appeal to?  As a church-going Democrat, nothing makes me more angry than when people like Sarah Palin pervert the meaning of place and religion and bring it into politics and education in this way.  They're a bunch of science-denying nutjobs.
[ Parent ]
McCain passed over a Mormon and a Jew for a
creationist????????
Good grief
[ Parent ]
both Change and Experience arguments will continue...
McCain won't give up the "experience" argument after choosing Palin any more that Obama gave up the "change" argument after choosing Biden.  Both sides will just claim that the other undermined their own campaign with their VP selection, then voters will remember that they really don't care about the #2 spot and the focus will go back to the top of the tickets, like always.
Total wildcard
She could really exceed expectations, or she could be a bit of a misfire. It was a gamble, for sure, but when you're John McCain't, you can't play it safe this year.

In another sense, this was probably the only pick (Lieberman aside) that could have completely taken the oxygen out of the buzz surrounding Barack's amazing speech last night -- and it has.

Right on
It's a completely perplexing pick.  I myself am not sure what to make of it.  I think to myself, if he wanted to win with a woman, why didn't he go with my senator Kay Bailey Hutchison or one of the corporate twins (or Lindsey Graham heh heh)?  Or a governor like Charlie Crist (if I was Republican, I would want him), or Tim Pawlenty?

It definitley took the buzz away from Obama.  It reminded me of something strange that happened when I was 8. I was just picking up magic (yes I was a magic nerd) and I put on a show for my friends at school and they loved it and applauded.  Then my friend Todd immediately ripped the loudest fart conceivable and they started laughing and applauding him.  Sarah Palin is the "thunder" that interrupted Obama's magic.

[ Parent ]
That
is one fuckin' funny story.
[ Parent ]
Buzz
I don't agree with the buzz comment.  Here at work folks have been talking about Obama's speech all day.  Other than an occasional "Who's Palin?" comment the McCain pick has been completely overshadowed.

Note that I'm talking about real people here, not the media or the internet.  :-)

[ Parent ]
Buzz
I was in an office in NYC and the pick generated an immediate hugely favorable buzz.  She may not have much experience but she seems to have a lot of political clout in Alaska.  She overturned the current Senate leader and may have placed an empty suit lt gov in to replace a 35 year incumbent congressman.  Add to that, she held Frank Murkowski to a pathetic 19% in his campaign for re-election as governor.

The interesting point is what was behind the pick?  OK, a woman.  Linda Lingle had a similar background but more experience (Mayor of Kaui IIRC and Gov in her second term), Kay Bailey Hutchison and Olympia Snowe have a lot more going for them.  Interesting to find out the other reasons.  

[ Parent ]
Big Four
I might be making things up (or my 12-year-old mind back then was playing tricks on me), but didn't W. begin to leak in the fall of 2000 a few of the big names for his potential cabinet?  Or at least in a wink/nudge fashion?  I seem to remember his campaign letting it be known that Colin Powell would be Sec of State, during the final stretch of the campaign.

Is it possible that Obama's campaign might do something similar to garner support and excite different demographics, such as leaking Napolitano as AG, especially to counter Palin and assure folks that some of our very talented Democratic women will be in very powerful positions in an Obama administration?  Not sure which other Democratic women are in the running for the Big Four (State, Defense, AG, Treasury), maybe Claudia Kennedy as SecDef, perhaps?  Richardson probably has State, though.  I really don't know, but I was curious if this would be something that actually has a chance to happen.

I'm not as worried about this pick as I was this morning waking up for class (now mainly just concerned about the consequences this will have on Begich and Berkowitz), but thought possibly leaking a few names would be something that might help.

Sarah Palin = Dan Quayle of the North
She named two of her daughters after the witches in WB's Charmed.
Hey, hey, let's not make a huge deal about Quayle here
Since he actually won.

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...
[ Parent ]
seriously?
Show some class and leave her kids out of it. Sheesh!
[ Parent ]
Well she named her last one Trigg
Is she trying to make his life in school miserable?  
[ Parent ]
You're right...
she should have given him a normal name, like "Barack".
[ Parent ]
You get three McCain points for that zinger!

[ Parent ]
The one thing I don't understand
is...why not K.B. Hutchison?  Why Palin instead of Hutchison?

(I mean, I can see why not Ridge, Romney, Huckabee, or Lieberman.  Even if I add in the consideration of gender (which I do NOT like to do), I can understand why not Pawlenty.  But why Palin, of all people?)

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...

Palin is younger and prettier


Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
I guy I work with
we joke about that's how his wife is going to look like in 15 years (she is a cutie).  I was awoken by a text message saying "John McCain is proud to announce he has selected (wife's name) to be his Vice President."
[ Parent ]
Hutchison has her future planned out I'm guessing
1. We all know she is going to primary Rick Perry in 2010.  For a Republican, his approval ratings and popularity in Texas are abysmal.  She and he defy the rule that governors are more popular than senators.  That's how bad of a job he is doing, and how good of a job she is doing.  

2. Serve as governor for 6-8 years.  If she doesn't have any serious f*** ups, she would be set for a solid presidential run in 2016 or 2020.  Texas is the second largest state.  Being from their would bring a mountain of financial support if she manages to maintain her popularity.  

[ Parent ]
Primary
I don't think primary is a verb.  :-)
[ Parent ]
It has become one.
Just like "bork" and "swiftboat" have become verbs.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Actually ...
I don't consider those to be verbs either!  :-)
[ Parent ]
Language evolves with its users
Since when did "band-aid" refer to a bandage?  Or "google" refer to doing an internet search?

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...
[ Parent ]
Kay Bailey Hutchison's plans?
Serve as governor for 6-8 years.  If she doesn't have any serious f*** ups, she would be set for a solid presidential run in 2016 or 2020.  

Kay Bailey Hutchison is 65 years old. I don't expect to see her bid for higher office in 2016. Before anyone brings up McCain as a counter-example, let's recall that this is not his first attempt at the Presidency - it's his last.  

[ Parent ]
I think Hutchison has a somewhat pro-choice record
I do recall her being one of a few repubs in the Senate to vote for a measure in support of Roe V. Wade awhile back.  That should hurt her with the base of the party.
[ Parent ]
Hutchison's voting record
is not necessarily for abortion rights but more towards access to contraception and women's health care.  If McCain really wanted to steal Hillary's votes, he should've picked Kay.  It would've been a guaranteed win.
[ Parent ]
Palin
I know exactly why McCain picked her.  He felt that to win, he needed a woman.  I don't think that he needs a woman, but apparently he and his advisors came to that decision.  So he's left with two choices.  He can choose from a moderate, Pro-choice woman to appeal to swing-state suburban women, such as C. T. Whitman.  Or, he could choose a fringe, far-right, woman such as Palin, or K. B. Hutchison.  After the Ridge//Lieberman leaks fiasco, it became apparent that he couldnot choose a pro-choice veep unless he wanted an all out convention floor fight, so he turns to the far right women.  He looks at his choices, and he chooses Palin, because unlike Hutchison, Palin is literally totally unknown in every state but Alaska.  This is to his advantage because it gives him the opportunity to define her as a maverick reformer.  See, for Hutchison, her voting record is out in the open, and the media knows her.  There's no way he could pass her off as a moderate to appeal to suburban moms, but with Palin, he can hide her record, and point to her efforts to "clean up Alaska" (great job on that one), her compelling life story, and her young age, and BAM!  He thinks he has a perfect and winning candidate.  Now it's up to Obama-Biden to put her voting record out into the open, as well as her complete and total lack of experience, and this pick turns into a mistake.  Whether or not they can do it is yet to be seen, but we can all hope so.

"[Rush Limbaugh] is a sorry excuse for a human being and a has-been hypocrite loser who was more lucid when he was a drug addict." Congressman Alan Grayson (D-FL)
[ Parent ]
Waaaaait a minute...
Didn't I hear some GOP talking heads blast Obama for vacationing in that far off place called Hawaii recently?  Then McCain picks a running mate from Alaska and the same folks keep their mouth shut?    
yep...
Those tropic Alaskan vacations sure are appealing!
[ Parent ]
Hopefully this whole diary will be moot
and Biden becomes VP and Palin goes back to being Gov.

But what isn't moot is: what will the impact (if any) be on the AK House & Senate races- potentially greatly increased AK voter turnout in Nov.?
She had a near 90% approval rating as Gov. (tho not sure what it is now post-Troopergate investigation)

The most recent
Ivan Moore poll had Berkowitz up over Young by 10 and Begich winning by 17. I don't know whether there are enough dormant Republicans to be brought out of the woodwork in Alaska by the Palin selection to close up those gaps. (Off the top of my head, I think Palin's approval ratings fell into the 50s or 60s in the wake of Troopergate. Most governors would still be pretty happy with that.)

Or, while the Palin choice might dissuade some Alaskans from voting for Obama, enough that this probably isn't a presidential swing state anymore, that may not have an impact on the downticket races, where the sharp turn against Stevens and Young probably doesn't have as much to do with the overall failure of the GOP brand as those two individuals' alleged criminal behavior. Palin's statewide goodwill and mojo were, essentially, obtained at Stevens' and Young's expense, and I expect that will continue to be the case.

But yes, I'll definitely be waiting to see the next rounds of AK-Sen and AK-AL polls to see if those leads erode.

[ Parent ]
House and Senate
I'm sure Ted will lose his senate seat.

The house will be tougher.

[ Parent ]
Palin is going to have to throw Young under the bus
Since she has to disassociate herself as much as possible from the corrupt AK R's machine...
[ Parent ]
Last states
As a friend pointed out, it is pretty cool to have candidates from Alaska and Hawaii running this year.  Especially as both states are celebrating their 50th anniversaries next year.
After considering it
I don't think this will help Stevens or Young much as they are down double digits.  Besides, whatever happens in his trial will determine Stevens' outcome.  If he is convicted of any counts, he'd done regardless of Palin's performance.

But this does make us want Young to win even more.  I think Palin would help her #2 Parnell.  That being said, I have to believe that with this, Parnell would not push any recount so he could help run the state and perhaps become governor if Palin were to win in November.  

well if you look at this way
It took Republicans 24 years to catch up to the Dems and finally have woman on the veep ticket
24 years?
But I'm sure it will be more than 24 years before they have an African American presidential candidate!
[ Parent ]
Biden will destroy Palin at the debate.
Man, its gonna be painful. I'm not saying she's dumb or anything, but Biden has been debating national issues for years. I know Palin is bound to say some of the wall shit. How is she even going to appear on the pundit shows?
Deer in the Headlights, Part II
but this sequel likely won't best Quayle's original
[ Parent ]
Agree completely
Honestly, Biden more or less has a PhD in foreign affairs after 25+ years in the Senate.  

What's Palin got on him?  Being Mayor of a small town in Alaska followed by less than 2 somewhat controversial years as AK Governor?  

[ Parent ]
And pissing off the AK-R establishment
Possibly not as badly as Bill "defenstration material" Sali, albeit.

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...
[ Parent ]
This is where she could surprise
I've been told that her debate performance against Murkowski and Binkley was quite strong. Now, I haven't actually watched it myself, but if she's sharp on her feet, this is where she'll exceed expectations.

Granted, the bar is set pretty low.

[ Parent ]
My bad James. Look at you rooting for the underdog. n/t

[ Parent ]
Watch out
I just saw Palin on the evening news, and she turns out to be quite a good down-to-earth speaker.

Just a warning for us not to underestimate her by any means.

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...

Don't worry, they'll set the bar low for her
If there is one thing republicans are good it it's setting the bar incredibly low.  They will set the bar so low for Palin that if she even manages to speak understandable English at a debate with Biden they'll claim victory.  They did the same thing for Bush in his debates in 2000 and 2004.  
[ Parent ]
Well, let it be known for the record
that Palin appears to be more literate than Bush.

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...
[ Parent ]
Is anyone less?
You make it sound like it's hard to find a breathing human being that's not more literate than Bush!

KELL
[ Parent ]
This all makes me extra happy
...that Obama didn't pick Tim "Softball" Kaine for VP. I bet Palin would have creamed him in a debate for sure.
[ Parent ]
Pros And Cons of Palin Pick
Pros: She brings youth and energy to McCain's much highlighted "oldness" and reinforces the original image that made McCain's political career: that of a reformer.

Cons: Not sure if a female running mate sits well with a party dominated by older white men. And her limited experience (2 years in the Governor's office) completely destroys McCain's argument of experience against Obama's lack of.

Honestly, I'm really surprised at all the political hoopla going on in Alaska, of all places. If you told me 4 years ago that Ted Stevens and Don Young were on their way to defeat, the Alaska GOP was undergoing an internal change, Democrats would have a shot at outnumbering the GOP in the Congressional Delegation, and that the state's Governor would become the party's VP nominee, I would have laughed in your face.

An interesting take from a republican co-worker
Today at work one of my co-workers who is a republican commented after reading Palin's bio that "she should't be running for a job that crazy while raising kids."  I'd imagine a lot of conservative white males feel that way.  

In Palin's case it does sound like the job would be hard for her considering her last child has disabilities.

[ Parent ]
also
This makes McCain look REALLY old in comparison. I have heard more references to 'taking over in a heartbeat' and little bits and pieces about his age, his fights with cancer, the damage to his body done as a POW in the past day, then I have since January. It was always that taboo subject. whisper whisper he's old, but we can't come out and say it whisper whisper. Its going to be interesting how this all gets framed. His age has always been an issue, one that should be debate, as should his bouts with cancer. Hopefully it will make people worried about letting someone with very little experience and very little national campaigning experience become president in a 'heartbeat.'  
[ Parent ]
Wow!
A great ad from the Obama camp could center around Palin's current scandal. Name a bunch of corrupt politicians then go along the liens that we need change away from corrupt politicization.  
I hope ya'll are picking up on the shit storm over Palin
In case you don't get over to DailyKos or the AP here your go-

http://www.dailykos.com/story/...

http://www.politico.com/news/s...

http://news.yahoo.com/s/politi...

Slow trains' coming McCain.

I realise this is SSP
But as well as the impact of Palin on AK-AL and AK-Sen, you might consider the effect of AK-AL and AK-Sen on her.

Young and Stevens are corrupt to the bone, but also prodigiously experienced. And Young at least doesn't get on with her. And he likes to shoot his mouth off. Calling Mike Stark!

Palin


"[Rush Limbaugh] is a sorry excuse for a human being and a has-been hypocrite loser who was more lucid when he was a drug addict." Congressman Alan Grayson (D-FL)
AK-Gov: Palinmania | 58 comments

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