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Breakdown of AK-AL GOP primary: Why Young looks good w/absentees

by: Andy Dufresne

Thu Aug 28, 2008 at 12:16 AM EDT


The Alaska division of elections was good enough to post the primary results in each of the 40 state house districts, so I have gone through the numbers for the GOP primary to see if we can figure any thing out.  The numbers are very encouraging, at least with regards to absentee ballots.  

Below, I've listed the total votes and breakdown between Young and Parnell in each district, plus the breakdown by absentee ballots so far counted.  I am not listing LeDoux's numbers, but her votes are obviously part of the totals.  

HD1 -- 1761 total votes: Young 66%-Parnell 25%; (98 absentee votes: Young 64%-Parnell 29%)

HD2 -- 1742 total votes: Young 54-Parnell 34; (156 absentee votes: Young 47-Parnell 42)

HD3 -- 1678 total votes: Young 43-Parnell 46; (103 absentee votes: Young 44-Parnell 49)

HD 4 -- 2449 total votes: Young 41-Parnell 46; (70 absentee votes: Young 40-Parnell 47)

HD 5 -- 1468 total votes: Young 52-Parnell 37; (93 absentee votes: Young 43-Parnell 38)

HD 6 -- 1807 total votes: Young 44-Parnell 49; (146 absentee votes: Young 43-Parnell 51)

HD 7 -- 3659 total votes: Young 32-Parnell 60; (109 absentee votes: Young 34-Parnell 62)

HD 8 -- 2840 total votes: Young 35-Parnell 57; (86 absentee votes: Young 27-Parnell 67)

HD 9 -- 1927 total votes: Young 36-Parnell 58; (68 absentee votes: Young 31-Parnell 56)

HD 10 -- 1363 total votes: Young 38%-Parnell 55%; (81 absentee votes: Young 46%-Parnell 44%)

HD 11 -- 3410 total votes: Young 33-Parnell 61; (111 absentee votes: Young 48-Parnell 45)

HD 12 -- 2083 total votes: Young 43-Parnell 47; (223 absentee votes: Young 55-Parnell 37)

HD 13 -- 3941 total votes: Young 45-Parnell 47; (240 absentee votes: Young 53-Parnell 40)

HD 14 -- 3504 total votes: Young 44-Parnell 49; (140 absentee votes: Young 51-Parnell 51)

HD 15 -- 3677 total votes: Young 46-Parnell 45; (186 absentee votes: Young 44-Parnell 49)

HD 16 -- 4075 total votes: Young 47-Parnell 44; (205 absentee votes: Young 48-Parnell 45)

HD 17 -- 3236 total votes: Young 47-Parnell 45; (203 absentee votes: Young 48-Parnell 47)

HD 18 -- 1109 total votes: Young 39-Parnell 50; (133 absentee votes: Young 43-Parnell 49)

HD 19 -- 1922 total votes: Young 50-Parnell 42; (109 absentee votes: Young 43-Parnell 45)

HD 20 -- 945 total votes: Young 51%-Parnell 39%; (46 absentee votes: Young 44%-Parnell 50%)

HD 21 -- 2671 total votes: Young 50-Parnell 43; (155 absentee votes: Young 52-Parnell 41)

HD 22 -- 1414 total votes: Young 48-Parnell 41; (67 absentee votes: Young 40-Parnell 45)

HD 23 -- 1523 total votes: Young 51-Parnell 41; (104 absentee votes: Young 44-Parnell 49)

HD 24 -- 1982 total votes: Young 51-Parnell 41; (85 absentee votes: Young 46-Parnell 46)

HD 25 -- 1472 total votes: Young 54-Parnell 37; (75 absentee votes: Young 44-Parnell 48)

HD 26 -- 2513 total votes: Young 53-Parnell 39; (147 absentee votes: Young 44-Parnell 50)

HD 27 -- 2910 total votes: Young 50-Parnell 42; (126 absentee votes: Young 57-Parnell 37)

HD 28 -- 3572 total votes: Young 51-Parnell 42; (156 absentee votes: Young 46-Parnell 44)

HD 29 -- 1916 total votes: Young 50-Parnell 41; (108 absentee votes: Young 44-Parnell 47)

HD 30 -- 3009 total votes: Young 48%-Parnell 44%; (129 absentee votes: Young 46%-Parnell 47%)

HD 31 -- 4063 total votes: Young 48-Parnell 45; (165 absentee votes: Young 42-Parnell 50)

HD 32 -- 4359 total votes: Young 46-Parnell 45; (245 absentee votes: Young 47-Parnell 44)

HD 33 -- 2863 total votes: Young 41-Parnell 50; (139 absentee votes: Young 42-Parnell 43)

HD 34 -- 3396 total votes: Young 40-Parnell 50; (195 absentee votes: Young 44-Parnell 46)

HD 35 -- 2537 total votes: Young 44-Parnell 44; (213 absentee votes: Young: 45-Parnell 42)

HD 36 -- 1579 total votes: Young 30-Parnell 30; (114 absentee votes: Young 47-Parnell 22)

HD 37 -- 966 total votes: Young 57-Parnell 34; (41 absentee votes: Young 44-Parnell 37)

HD 38 -- 523 total votes: Young 57-Parnell 35; (12 absentee votes: Young 92-Parnell 8)

HD 39 -- 867 total votes: Young 58-Young 33; (11 absentee votes: Young 64-Parnell 18)

HD 40 -- 813 total votes: Young 55-Parnell 33; (8 absentee votes: Young 38-Parnell 50)

For what it's worth, Young ended up winning 24 house districts, to 16 for Parnell.  

It's important to note that at least two communities -- Petersburg and Wrangell -- ran out of GOP ballots, so several primary voters used sample ballots which have not been counted: 204 in Petersburg and 53 in Wrangell.  

Young bested Parnell in both towns: by 44%-37% in Petersburg, and 58%-27% in Wrangell.  It is therefore reasonable to believe Young will probably gain around 30 votes from these sample ballots once they are counted.

Onto the totals:

Total Vote (93544)
Don Young:    45.47% (42539)
Sean Parnell:  45.31 % (42387)

Absentees (so far) (4901):
Don Young:   45.79% (2244)
Sean Parnell: 44.79% (2195)

So, while Young is running 0.16 percent ahead of Parnell overall (including those 4901 absentee votes already counted), he leads Parnell by exactly 1.0 percent overall among absentee votes.  

Right now, both Young and Parnell's campaign have estimated there are around 4,000 absentee ballots left.  Assuming the breakdown we saw with the nearly 5000 counted absentee votes carries over, Young should exceed Parnell by approximately 40 votes among the remaining 4000 absentee votes, and his lead should thus hold.  

Assuming this comes to fruition, a lot will depend the 5,000-10,000 questioned (provisional) ballots which the division of elections says may end up coming in.  We have no info on this load of potentially game-changing ballots.

But clearly, Young is running better than Parnell among absentee ballots than among the overall vote -- 0.16 percent to 1.0 percent.  This is a good sign for Democrats.  Still, it is unclear that Young would be able to gain a margin of greater than 0.5 percent.  Then again, three weeks of counting, followed by a recount might not be all bad for Democrats!

Plus, Young is quoted in the Fairbanks Daily News Miner as saying he might run as an independent if he were to lose.  

Asked if he would consider running as an Independent if he lost the primary, Young said he hadn't considered it.

"It's a good idea; I might," he said. "But I don't expect him to win the primary."

Good times!  

Andy Dufresne :: Breakdown of AK-AL GOP primary: Why Young looks good w/absentees
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LMAO at Young pulling a Lieberman.
He and Stevens are two of the most self-absorbed pols ever. It's clear that they both know the only way they'll keep the Senate and House seats in Republican hands is to not be the nominee for either of their respective races. In the end, though, they don't give a flying crap.

If they go down, they're taking the rest of the Alaska GOP down with them.


These results are very interesting
Parnell won Fairbanks (districts 7-11) handily.  

And Young won all house districts in Anchorage (districts 19-31).  Parnell has lived in Anchorage since 1973.

Does anyone have any ideas as to why Parnell did so well in Fairbanks, but lost Anchorage?



I noticed that too
I too was very surprised that Young held his own in the ring around Anchorage -- particularly Palin's home base around Wasilla -- and did well in a lot of regions.  But by far, Parnell did best in and around Fairbanks where Young hails from.  Extremely interesting, and Parnell is not from there, so I can't explain it.

Maybe we are seeing some resentment from that region against Young.  Even though he is originally from Fort Yukon, he can't get up there more than a few weeks a year considering how far off the beaten path it is.  

Still, a fascinating break-down.  


[ Parent ]
They switched bases of support?
Interesting.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
What is with election troubles
and corners of the United States?

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

What is with election troubles
and corners of the United States?

FL-Pres 2000, FL-Pres 2004, FL-13 2006, WA-Gov 2004, AK-AL-R 2008...

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01


[ Parent ]

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