How sad

The NRCC is spending money it doesnt have to protect Robin Hayes, one of the richest members of congress.  What a year they are in for!

"Keep the Faith"

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by: blue south @ Wed Aug 27, 2008 at 16:43:28 PM CDT

ad plan

After the  "head fake"  the NRSC revealed in the NC Dole campaign last week, who knows how believable any of those numbers are.
Could be complete dis-information. Or not. Who knows.

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by: homerun @ Wed Aug 27, 2008 at 18:03:29 PM CDT

Lost causes.

  $1.2 million for Marilyn Musgrave?  That is a waste of money.  I would hang Porter, Hayes, and Musgrave out to dry if I were NRCC chair.

John McCain lets lobbyists shape his economic policy

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by: cilerder86 @ Wed Aug 27, 2008 at 19:34:32 PM CDT

That one made me scratch my head

Seriously, Musgrave has little chance regardless of how much they spend there.  That 1.2 Mill could be much better spent elsewhere.

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by: ChadInFL @ Wed Aug 27, 2008 at 19:53:52 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

to be fair

I remember people saying very similar things during the midterms two years ago, and still, batshit crazy Musgrave held on. I think that they're hoping that she will hold on, or they might just be bluffing, get the DCCC to spend or possibly match them there, and then they'll just cut her loose oncethe DCCC has spent their money.

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by: Venslor @ Wed Aug 27, 2008 at 21:35:38 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

I think this time around is different

We seem to have a better candidate and the money advantage this time.  I don't recall any independent polls shwing Musgrave down 7 in 2006 either.  Just looking at the crosstabs of that SUSA poll makes it obvious that the voters have had it with her.

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by: ChadInFL @ Wed Aug 27, 2008 at 22:12:34 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Actually,

I'd hang Hayes, Musgrave, and Jay Love (AL-02) out to dry.

And Bill Sali too, if I were adequately pissed at him.

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...

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by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Thu Aug 28, 2008 at 03:30:37 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Porter I would keep.

If I'm the NRCC, I'd be trying to defend districts that, once lost, are lost for good.  Porter is a great example, maybe AL-02, FL-25, NY-26, WA-08, NC-08, OH-15, NM-01, IL-09 and -11... that sort of thing.

If the GOP loses ID-01, they're gonna get it back within a couple of cycles, assuming the party system returns to normal parity sometime in the next eight years.  They'll get back CO-04 as well (is it really possible to gerrymander 5 Dem districts out of 7 in Colorado??), and CA-04 eventually (although that one could be gerrymandered a bit).  OH-02, same deal; they could lose Schmidt this cycle, but they'd be back with a real candidate fairly quickly.  So why waste money on the districts that are going to revert back to you on their own quickly enough, when there are so many districts that, once lost, are going to be lost for 20 years or more?

Of course, the proximity of this cycle to redistricting makes these calculations much harder.  Even incumbents who normally shouldn't be able to survive have a strong chance of surviving the few years required to reach redistricting.  McNerney is a classic instance of this; had be been elected in a year ending with 2, he'd be toast, but as is he only has one more cycle to survive (2010) and then he'll be in a district that would make Lois Capps blush.

Anyway, that's how I'd be trying to spend my money.  And that means defend Jon Porter to the death, because once that district is gone, it is never coming back.

[Caveat: I'm not actually sure that we're going to revert to normal party parity in the next eight years or so.  I'm optimistic that a period of Democratic dominance and Republican collapse could be on the horizon, for as long as it takes for the GOP to reconstitute a majority coalition.  But, if I'm the NRCC, I'm not admitting that possibility to myself, cause you just can't plan constructively for total party failure.  You have to assume one of the non-epic-fail future scenarios and plan for that.]

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by: texas dem @ Thu Aug 28, 2008 at 15:39:40 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

no, CO-04

is really rapidly trending Democratic, and if we had a strong incumbent they wouldn't get it back. I think in the end you'll see Colorado become the reliably blue "anchor" of the west.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

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by: ArkDem the Ragin Cajin @ Thu Aug 28, 2008 at 18:53:44 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

TX-22?

That is supposedly their #1 pickup opportunity and yet not a dime there to go against the massive money the DCCC is dropping for Lampson?  Either they are extremely overconfident, have no idea what they're doing, or both.

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by: ChadInFL @ Wed Aug 27, 2008 at 19:56:15 PM CDT

Well

They do say that this is just the first of several reservations. A lot of people made similar comments ("Hey, what about district X??") after the DCCC made their first reservation, and then District X popped up in wave two.

That said, the NRCC doesn't have nearly as much cash to throw around, so they will be choosier (or their buys will be much smaller, as we've already seen).

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by: James L. @ Wed Aug 27, 2008 at 20:03:38 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Are they serious about Sali?

Between the slew of open R seats and several vulnerable D incumbents, I can think of about 10 races that need their money more than him. Methinks they saw some very worrisome internals.

Either way, I just love how the NRCC needs to spend cash in freakin' Idaho.

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by: Tyler Oakley @ Wed Aug 27, 2008 at 23:56:53 PM CDT

Maybe it's to buy the right to

throw him out the window.

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...

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by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Thu Aug 28, 2008 at 03:28:22 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

wait,

I'll throw in half a million out of my own pocket if I get to throw Bill Sali out a window. lol

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

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by: ArkDem the Ragin Cajin @ Thu Aug 28, 2008 at 18:54:33 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Nah, that's too little

I'm sure many legislators would bid up the price to at least a couple mill for that opportunity.  

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by: ChadInFL @ Thu Aug 28, 2008 at 21:51:38 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Not to mention the lobbyists

ponying up several million each.

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...

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by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Fri Aug 29, 2008 at 00:32:15 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Maybe it's buying the right to

throw him out the window.

Y'know, he'd probably rather have Republicans throw him out the window than Democrats.

(Sorry, I don't know how to edit blog comments.)

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...

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by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Thu Aug 28, 2008 at 03:29:03 AM CDT

[ Parent ]