Chris Carney (D-inc): 49
Chris Hackett (R): 45
(MoE: ±4.0%)
Carney is right under the magic 50% bubble of vulnerability, and Hackett is nipping at his heels. Carney's favorables (40% favorable, 23% unfavorable, 30% neutral and 6% unknown) are okay, but clearly indicate that the freshman incumbent could stand to boost his profile at home. This race is shaping up to be pretty close.
In better news, and continuing a trend that we've seen in other red districts (CO-04 and KS-02), voters prefer a candidate who touts alternative sources of energy over one who advocates increased offshore drilling by a 54-36 margin. Bear in mind that this a conservative R+8 district, so you might expect the GOP's pro-drilling talking points to sell well here. Not really, it turns out. Additionally, a full 40% of voters in the 10th blame the oil companies first and foremost for the high cost of gasoline. It won't be a surprise to see the familiar attacks on "big oil" be a common thread in Democratic messaging here.
The poll also finds that John McCain leads Barack Obama by 50-41 in the 10th District; considering that John Kerry was blown out by a 60-40 margin here in 2004, Obama is in good shape to make it at least a slightly closer race in this district. And if McCain can't rack up the score convincingly in a district like this, what chance does he have of winning Pennsylvania?