Premium Sponsor

Featured Sponsor

Our Sponsors

Ad Networks

Buy an ad on all of the top liberal blogs with just one click.

Site Stats

KS-02: Boyda Leads Jenkins by 7 in New Poll

by: James L.

Mon Aug 25, 2008 at 1:38 PM EDT

SurveyUSA for Roll Call (8/19-21, likely voters):

Nancy Boyda (D-inc): 50
Lynn Jenkins (R): 43
(MoE: ±4%)

Boyda is at the critical 50% mark, and has decent favorability numbers for a frosh Dem in a deep red district (46-32). She still faces a real battle against the top-of-the ticket coattails, as McCain is beating Obama by a 51-38 margin in the district -- but even that spread is not as bad as the 59-39 drubbing that Bush delivered to John Kerry here in 2004.

More interesting are the questions related to the energy crisis, including this one:

If two candidates were running for Congress, and one says that offshore drilling is the best way to solve America's energy problems ... and the other says that America needs to identify and promote alternative sources of energy ... which candidate would you vote for?

So, considering all the hype surrounding the GOP's newly-discovered "drill here, drill now" mantra, you would expect offshore drilling to be wildly popular in a conservative R+7.3 district, right? Actually, not so much: Voters here say they would vote for the candidate promoting alternative sources of energy over increased offshore drilling by a 56-34 margin.

Additionally, when asked who was most responsible for high gasoline prices, 38% blamed the oil companies while only 11% blamed environmentalists. President Bush received 10% of the blame, while Congress gobbled up 13%. You can see why the most valued attack line from the party committees this cycle is one that ties GOP candidates to "big oil".

SSP currently rates this race as Lean Democratic.

James L. :: KS-02: Boyda Leads Jenkins by 7 in New Poll

Tags: Polls, KS-02, (All Tags)

Print Friendly View

Send As Email

KS-02: Boyda Leads Jenkins by 7 in New Poll | 17 comments

Does Jenkins already have high name recognition?

If she does I'm happy with the poll, if not we're in trouble.

by: ChadInFL @ Mon Aug 25, 2008 at 13:10:10 PM CDT

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

Seems fairly high.

Only 11% have no opinion of her according to the poll.

by: James L. @ Mon Aug 25, 2008 at 13:15:16 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

you would think she would

seeing she's supposed to be the state treasurer

But at this point who knows

by: lordpet8 @ Mon Aug 25, 2008 at 18:56:41 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

Yay!

Now let's see a poll of LA-06. The GOP's pool of potential pick-ups is dwindling down to 2 or 3 at the most.

by: Tyler Oakley @ Mon Aug 25, 2008 at 13:26:18 PM CDT

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

what are their realistic pickups?

Alabama - Cramer?

New Hampshire - Shea-Porter?

Texas - Lampson?

Florida - Mahoney?

Louisiana - Cazyoux?

Indiana - Hill?

Georgia - Marshall?

by: CarnahanDemocrat @ Mon Aug 25, 2008 at 14:38:42 PM CDT

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

Hill will be fine

Marshall's opponent has been a lousy fundraiser. The rest are possible but I don't think more than 2-3 House Dems actually lose.

by: conspiracy @ Mon Aug 25, 2008 at 14:53:45 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

There are only about 8 seats I'm at all worried about

In order of liklihood to flip:

1. TX-22
2. LA-06
3. FL-16
4. NH-01
5. PA-11
6. PA-10
7. KS-02
8. GA-08

I'd give our range of Dem seats lost at about 2-4 seats.

GA-08 I have no clue on. There have been no polls and next to no info about that one. Repubs supposedly had a top-tier candidate, but his fundraising is less than steller.

by: ChadInFL @ Mon Aug 25, 2008 at 16:31:08 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

I would put LA-06 above TX-22

Simply because of MJ's dark horse campaign. From the looks of the list, I really don't see a ton of danger in many of them. While they may be competitive for the GOP, its definitely a case of relative danger. Compared to most Dems, incumbents in FL-16, PA-10, KS-02 and NH-01 may be threatened but the threats are not serious. Not serious like our threats in AK-AL, FL-21,FL-25, IL-10 etc which are as serious a f*cking heart attack.

by: nrimmer @ Mon Aug 25, 2008 at 16:49:00 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

FL-16 is absolutely threatening for us

Yes, we benefit from a late republican primary, but that seat was barely won under fluke circumstances in 2006. Republicans will have a serious challenger regardless of who wins their primary. I'd put that one at leans Dem, but just barely. The 16th is not friendly territory for even moderate dems like Mahoney.

But yes, our incumbents are in nowhere near the kind of shape that numerous republican incumbents are in. I think everyone assumed two years ago that we'd give back a lot of seats that seemed like flukes in 2006, such as OH-18, PA-10, KS-02, FL-16, NY-19, TX-22, NH-01 etc. Luckily most of our new congressmen turned out to be better quality than expected.

by: ChadInFL @ Mon Aug 25, 2008 at 18:55:32 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

True, true. So let me see...

there are at least five:

1. LA-06
2. TX-22
3. FL-16
4. PA-11
5. NH-01

I don't know about NH-01. I'll wait for a poll to see for sure. I gotta say 4-5 endangered Dems is pretty damn good. Going 50/50 thats only two losses. Acceptable compared to all the potential pick-ups.

by: nrimmer @ Mon Aug 25, 2008 at 19:05:48 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

agreed

I don't know entirely about PA-11, I just cannot see how that is so competitive. Kanjorski must've been lazy for way too long.

by: Andrew @ Mon Aug 25, 2008 at 22:53:38 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Sheesh, I'd almost be happy to see the guy go.

Kanjorski or whatever his name is, doesn't deserve to be a congressman from what I've heard him say. It's like he has no clue about politics or anything. With a dumbass like him, I'd rather the DCCC cut him loose then worry about it. There's better candidates out there who actually understand how to campaign.

by: nrimmer @ Mon Aug 25, 2008 at 23:23:45 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Well,

I'd rather candidates be supported based on their ability to govern and legislate well rather than their campaigning abilities...

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...

by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Tue Aug 26, 2008 at 02:10:19 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

The trouble is he's crap at that too

PA-11 should not on demographic grounds be competitive. But Kanjorski is not only a terrible campaigner, he's also a political non-entity with nothing much to his name, so he's got very little to run on.

by: Englishlefty @ Tue Aug 26, 2008 at 04:36:47 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Agree with that

There is no excuse for Kanjorski being in more trouble in a D+5 district than freshman Dem Carney in a friggin R+8 PA district. No excuse at all.

by: ChadInFL @ Tue Aug 26, 2008 at 06:51:04 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Great news for Boyda.

I like the chances of holding on to this seat. I'm particularly impressed with the "high gas prices" questions. I was worried that the GOP's blaming Dems for high prices would stick. I'm glad to see it hasn't. Also, like has been shown before in this cycle, its great to see the whole "tied to big oil" meme taking hold. Its a meme that needs to be mainstream before long. I'm not saying I hate oil companies but they have had way too much influence on U.S. politics.

by: nrimmer @ Mon Aug 25, 2008 at 16:42:47 PM CDT

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

Go BOYDA

I live here in the KS 2nd District, and believe this to be a fairly accurate poll. Nancy will do better as the campaign goes on. She has already sent out a 16 page newspaper insert on energy issues to all papers in the district, and is on television and radio. Nancy will not let up. Jenkins has name recognition, but she cannot campaign as well as Nancy. In the end, Nancy should end up with 55% or more of the vote.

by: donaldlj @ Tue Aug 26, 2008 at 09:54:21 AM CDT

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

KS-02: Boyda Leads Jenkins by 7 in New Poll | 17 comments