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MS-Sen-B: Wicker Maintains Nine-Point Lead

by: James L.

Sat Aug 23, 2008 at 2:14 PM EDT

Rasmussen (8/21, likely voters incl. leaners, 7/28 in parens):

Ronnie Musgrove (D): 43 (43)
Roger Wicker (R-inc): 52 (52)
(MoE: ±4.5%)

Without leaners, Wicker leads by five: 47-42. The crosstabs show Wicker making some important gains over earlier polls: he now scores 17% of African-American voters (10% without leaners) and holds Musgrove to only 22% of the white vote. Even with a sky-high African-American turnout in November, that's a winning formula for the GOP.

I don't mean to be a Debbie Downer here, but Musgrove has some serious challenges -- most seriously, a recent guilty plea from a business executive who admitted that he attempted to bribe Musgrove with a $25,000 campaign contribution in connection to a failed beef plant project -- an unsuccessful business venture that left Mississippi taxpayers carrying the tab in 2003.

Now, there's no evidence of any wrongdoing on Musgrove's part, but this is clearly the type of smoke and mirrors game that the GOP will love to exploit. I'm not saying that this race is undoable, but it's going to take an extraordinary amount of sweat.

SSP currently rates this race as Lean Republican.

James L. :: MS-Sen-B: Wicker Maintains Nine-Point Lead

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MS-Sen-B: Wicker Maintains Nine-Point Lead | 23 comments

Yeah

The DSCC needs to get on the air in a major way if we are going to keep this as a tossup.

We can win here but it's going to require heavy DSCC investment.

by: Populista @ Sat Aug 23, 2008 at 13:17:26 PM CDT

by: you @ soon

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Will MS-B Remain in Shumer's Sights?

I'm not sure what will give more bang for the buck, dollars in NC where it's a more moderate race but we are up against an incumbent, or MS where McCain and Cochran will be at the top of the ticket in a much more conservative state?

I am hopeful the DSCC can stay out of VA & NM, they'll have to play some money in Alaska, New Hampshire, and Colorado, and the brut force will get utilized in Oregon and Minnesota. I have to imagine we can play some in the rest of the potential races, but some focus will need to be played in North Carolina, Maine, Mississippi-B, and Georgia. We already know the cash that has been placed in NC right now.

KELL

by: ryanlkelly @ Sat Aug 23, 2008 at 13:57:07 PM CDT

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Oklahoma

need to be fought over too!

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

by: ArkDem the Ragin Cajin @ Sat Aug 23, 2008 at 19:34:12 PM CDT

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This Is So Gay

When's Rasmussen going to take his foot out of his ass and start polling this without the party label?

My Can Of Contemplation is now open to all for perusal.

by: Don't Tase Me, Bro! @ Sat Aug 23, 2008 at 15:50:38 PM CDT

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Bingo!!

Rasmussen has no clue on MS state rules. Musgrove does need to put and end to the stated problem though. Tell the people of MS that he's the victim of Republican dirty tricks.

by: Calvin Jones and the 13th Apostle @ Sat Aug 23, 2008 at 16:55:20 PM CDT

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Agreed

He's gotta stop listening to his handlers and just go ape shit on Roger Wicker, who in my view has the mouth of a hillbilly and the face of a gorilla.

My Can Of Contemplation is now open to all for perusal.

by: Don't Tase Me, Bro! @ Sat Aug 23, 2008 at 17:02:56 PM CDT

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"Gay"?

And you take umbrage at my language?

by: James L. @ Sat Aug 23, 2008 at 18:13:08 PM CDT

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Touche.

by: nrimmer @ Sat Aug 23, 2008 at 20:09:27 PM CDT

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Gay and Bastard Are Different

When the word bastard was used, I got very negative vibes coming off from that sentence. "Those bastards deserve it" sounded very vindictive.

When I used the word "gay", I tried to use it in a playful way that implied my continued frustration with these inaccurate polling firms that are misrepresenting the facts. Okay, maybe I should have said something like "This is so retarded/ridiculous," but I wasn't being hateful in my use of the word.

And another difference. "Bastards" was used in a partisan fashion to attack Republicans. I was using "gay" to talk about an independent polling firm.

My Can Of Contemplation is now open to all for perusal.

by: Don't Tase Me, Bro! @ Sat Aug 23, 2008 at 22:54:11 PM CDT

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retarded is a good one either

which I am going to say it, really makes me sad. I try my best not to use it but there are so many situations where just saying retarded is the ideal descriptor and when you replace it with another one, it just sounds wrong. But even though I think that, I dont say it so give me some credit.

Dont be so homophobic ya fag. :)

by: Andrew @ Sat Aug 23, 2008 at 23:32:32 PM CDT

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wrong title

definitely meant, retarded is NOT a good one either

by: Andrew @ Sat Aug 23, 2008 at 23:33:06 PM CDT

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Speaking of Gay...

Jared Polis won his election in CO to replace Mark Udall right? It's good to know we're going to elect a gay man outright to the Congress. Barney Frank needs to have a gay posse in that big ole Capitol building.

KELL

by: ryanlkelly @ Sat Aug 23, 2008 at 23:38:46 PM CDT

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yeah

woot woot! But I dont like that he won by spending a ridiculous amount of his own money. Self-funding it really anti grassroots... But meh, it evens out.

by: Andrew @ Sun Aug 24, 2008 at 00:10:49 AM CDT

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Agree on the Self-Funding

It's unfortuante that he had to use a crapload of money to win the nomination, which in this district pretty much means he'll win the general election.

However, given the barriers that homosexuality have within elected politics (there are only 2 openly gay US House Representatives - 00.46%), sometimes you have to use what you have in order to get your foot in the door.

Honestly, being a gay man myself, I think that a lesbian is much more likely to get elected over a gay man. People in general have a more negative attitude toward gay men than they do with lesbians. Granted that is my personal opinion and I in no way mean to state that there are not barriers for lesbians.

So with that: GO JARED POLIS, GO COLORADO!

KELL

by: ryanlkelly @ Sun Aug 24, 2008 at 10:43:22 AM CDT

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I agree though about lesbians

They come off a lot less threatening to heterosexuals. Gay men a bit more in your face and we certainly do fit into a lot of the negative stereotypes. (drugs and sex)

So this will be the first time a gay man wins a seat in Congress and being out. Yay!

The one thing we do do well is make a lot more money than straights and have better jobs. It's statistical, by like 30% in both or something. (My friend and I hypothesize it's because gays are materialistic so we have to have nice jobs so we can shop at Nordstrom's...) If we got that advantage, might as well use it to get our foot in the door indeed.

by: Andrew @ Sun Aug 24, 2008 at 13:29:32 PM CDT

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Maybe more career driven?

I've always thought gays were more successful financially because they don't have the traditional "nuclear family" to tie them down. Less dependents means more money for yourself. Maybe that's part of it.

by: ChadInFL @ Sun Aug 24, 2008 at 15:03:53 PM CDT

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I'm not sure if this is true, Andrew

I'm really not sure if the stereotype of well off, professional gays is anything more than that -- a stereotype. Gays are an almost impossible group to get any kind of random sample of. Further, I think there is perhaps a greater economic bifurcation in among gay people -- some of us doing very well, and others not doing well at all (alienated from family, dealing with mental health issues, seeing their educational careers interrupted, etc.). So I think we need to be careful here, as one of the main expounders of this "The gays have a lot of money" line is the right wing -- who also like to say that none of us have children, which also is completely false.

Or more humorously, think of it this way -- If gays had all this money, why is almost every queer I meet at the bar asking me to buy them a drink because they're broke until payday!?!

by: IndianaProgressive @ Sun Aug 24, 2008 at 15:13:32 PM CDT

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Barney Frank and a gay posse

Made me chuckle when I heard that.

by: ChadInFL @ Sun Aug 24, 2008 at 00:14:57 AM CDT

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Tammy Baldwin already broke that barrier

though she's actually a lesbian, not a gay dude. It has been done before, and she actually converted a Republican seat Democratic!

by: KainIIIC @ Sun Aug 24, 2008 at 00:50:07 AM CDT

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Uh no

It is not good, man. Remember what happened with Barney Frank way back when, and remember what happened with Larry Craig.

Waffle House celebrated its 50th anniversary and my steak celebrated its 25th-Larry the Cable Guy

by: SE-779 @ Sun Aug 24, 2008 at 08:41:44 AM CDT

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what exactly are you implying

Are you saying that we shouldn't elect gays to the house because they are gay? Because you sem to be implying that because of the actions of Barney Frank and Larry Craig, that gay people being elected to office is a bad thing.

Check out http://electioninspection.word... for the latest news, election results, poll analysis, and predictions

by: skywrnchsr509 @ Mon Aug 25, 2008 at 05:19:46 AM CDT

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Actually, if anything, I perceive "gay" as the more sensitive word

since "bastard" has mostly lost its literal meaning, though "gay" continues to be a sensitive issue in modern American society.

I don't quite understand what you're trying to say, but it seems inconsistent. You were saying that it wouldn't be right to characterize all the registered Republicans in the country with the stigma of out-of-wedlock childbirth, but that it's okay to characterize all homosexual males as having the level of stupidity/ignorance of a polling firm that makes serious polling mistakes?

I'm inclined to agree with James and nrimmer here, that if you'll object to the term "bastard" being used in that other instance, I'll have to object to the term "gay" being used in this instance. Normally, I don't care about either one, but it seems that this thing has been made such a big deal that I feel the need to weigh in on this.

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway

by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Sun Aug 24, 2008 at 03:14:49 AM CDT

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Well,

You're entitled to your opinion, and that was an intelligent response. Thank you.

My Can Of Contemplation is now open to all for perusal.

by: Don't Tase Me, Bro! @ Sun Aug 24, 2008 at 05:38:38 AM CDT

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