Civitas (8/14-17, likely voters, 7/14-17 in parens):
Kay Hagan (D): 41 (38)
Elizabeth Dole (R-inc): 44 (47)
Chris Cole (L): 4 (2)
First we had SUSA, and then Insider Advantage, and now Civitas all showing a rapidly tightening race, probably in no small part due to the pummeling that the DSCC and Dem allies are giving Dole on the airwaves over the issues of her effectiveness and her ties to "big oil". This is all fantastic news.
I would think one of the cardinal rules of politics is not to remind people of your flaws. That's why I'm amazed to see that Elizabeth Dole's new ad responding to the DSCC's ads about her #93 effectiveness ranking devotes its first four seconds to repeating that unfortunate little fact about herself! Don't spend your own money to remind people about an ad that's doing you a lot of damage. [...]
I'll admit up until a couple weeks ago I didn't really think Kay Hagan had any chance at this. But the DSCC's campaign on her behalf has been brilliant, and I'm frankly amazed at the numbers we've seen the first two days of our tracking poll- we'll probably release the North Carolina Senate numbers Tuesday.
SSP currently rates this race as Lean Republican, but we're loving this trend.