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NC-Sen: Another Poll Shows a Tightening Race

by: James L.

Fri Aug 22, 2008 at 12:03 PM EDT

Civitas (8/14-17, likely voters, 7/14-17 in parens):

Kay Hagan (D): 41 (38)
Elizabeth Dole (R-inc): 44 (47)
Chris Cole (L): 4 (2)
(MoE: ±4.2%)

First we had SUSA, and then Insider Advantage, and now Civitas all showing a rapidly tightening race, probably in no small part due to the pummeling that the DSCC and Dem allies are giving Dole on the airwaves over the issues of her effectiveness and her ties to "big oil". This is all fantastic news.

The folks over at Public Policy Polling have their own poll in the field, and their early results show Hagan beating Dole. It's enough for PPP's Tom Jensen to ask: Is "Dole falling apart"?

I would think one of the cardinal rules of politics is not to remind people of your flaws. That's why I'm amazed to see that Elizabeth Dole's new ad responding to the DSCC's ads about her #93 effectiveness ranking devotes its first four seconds to repeating that unfortunate little fact about herself! Don't spend your own money to remind people about an ad that's doing you a lot of damage. [...]

I'll admit up until a couple weeks ago I didn't really think Kay Hagan had any chance at this. But the DSCC's campaign on her behalf has been brilliant, and I'm frankly amazed at the numbers we've seen the first two days of our tracking poll- we'll probably release the North Carolina Senate numbers Tuesday.

SSP currently rates this race as Lean Republican, but we're loving this trend.

James L. :: NC-Sen: Another Poll Shows a Tightening Race
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Great news for Hagan ...
Surely this will boost fundraising and enthusiam among her supporters.  

According to another website,, these are some other polls out yesterday:

Kansas Roberts 58-31 over Slattery from Survey USA

NH Shaheen 52-41 over Sununu from Arkansas G?

NM Udall 51-41 over Pearce from Rasmussan

NH looks good, NM a little disappointing, and Slattery (KS) needs a Andrew Rice-like surge.

Slattery doing much worse in latest SUSA poll compared to prior SUSA poll.  But, SUSA switched from polling registered voters to likely voters.  This change in model likely accounts for much of the drop off.  Still, not looking good.

[ Parent ]
Civitas is a GOP Polling Firm
- There was a 78-18 white/black breakdown of the poll.  
- The actual breakdown is 75.7 white, 21.0 black.

- The party breakdown of the poll was 46D, 35R, 19U.
- The actual breakdown as of last week is 45.3D, 32.8R, 21.8U.

Maybe the difference is due to their likely voter screen, or maybe Hagan is ahead.

They also use Tel-Opinion
who is horrible in my opinion.

I think their horse races are generally a little questionable, but the important thing is their trend lines.  To show Hagan gaining 6 points like that with most of the DSCC's buy still to come and with her not on the air for more than a week (if at all) before this poll was done its great news.

Their polls are horrific for the issue questions that they ask, involving incredibly biased "introductions" such as "Every drunk driver ever was an illegal immigrant from Mexico.  Do you support closing the border or allowing these murderers to roam free?"  And then their public release will say "Do you support a tougher stance on immigration?"

So while their horse race numbers are questionable because of everything else they do, they are at least consistent with each other, with valid trend lines.

"Keep the Faith"

[ Parent ]
Just what I've expected
I'm not going to say "I told you so", but I've been pretty consistent in my comments on this site that Kay has a big chance to win this one.  I've believed it from the time she entered the race, and nothing has changed my mind.  I know some folks felt when the state-wide office holders chose not to run (preferring to wait for the easy pickings in 2010) that this was a recruiting miss.  But those of us who have followed Kay throughout her career knew that she's an outstanding candidate.  She's my state Senator now, and will be my U.S. Senator next year!

Ya, Kay seems to be a good pick
I was disappointed when all of the supposed top-tier candidates like Governor Easley and Rep. Miller passed, but I don't think any of them would be in much better shape than Kay is in right now.  I think some of those who passed are already regretting it.  Burr may seem to be a weaker candidate for re-election than Dole, but for all we know 2010 could be a much less favorable year for us than 2008.

[ Parent ]
everyone's predictions on races are rapidly changing with new information all the time anyway.  In my personal review of the races (which I don't say much of) I actually try to make reasonably consistent guesses that are unaffected by polling ups and downs and try to project forward what might happen in terms of campaign activities and independent expenditures and other things.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]

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