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VA-05: Goode Has Huge Lead in New Poll

by: James L.

Wed Aug 13, 2008 at 8:53 PM EDT

SurveyUSA (8/10-12, likely voters):

Tom Perriello (D): 30
Virgil Goode (R-inc): 64
(MoE: ±3.9%)

Those are some ugly numbers - very much reminiscent of the 64-36 drubbing that Goode delivered to Democrat Al Weed in 2004 (Weed closed the gap to 59-40 two years later before throwing in the towel). Having not spent much in the way of advertising yet, I'd expect Perriello's name recognition to be quite weak. He should be able to close the gap some once he spends his considerable resources on the race, but this looks to be an extremely tough hill to climb.

SSP currently rates this race as Likely Republican.

(H/T: ChadInFL)

James L. :: VA-05: Goode Has Huge Lead in New Poll

Tags: VA-05, Polls, (All Tags)

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VA-05: Goode Has Huge Lead in New Poll | 39 comments

Oh c'mon

Either this district is beyond redemption or these numbers should move a lot. Goode is currently getting:

32% of liberals
35% of blacks
50% of pro-choice
69% of independents

so...un-saveable or what?

by: Lucas O'Connor @ Wed Aug 13, 2008 at 19:57:32 PM CDT

by: you @ soon

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Exactly

He's down 30 points in a poll that pushes learners very hard before Tom has done much of anything.

Once those shift to maybe 5 percent of liberals, 5 percent of blacks, 10 percent of pro-choice and 40 percent of indies this is a much closer race.

Good to see someone polling it though.

Oh and by the way. At the debate today Goode attacked a few Swing State Project bloggers. More on that tomorow.

by: Populista @ Wed Aug 13, 2008 at 22:24:28 PM CDT

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by: you @ soon

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Well

Maybe there some people who might still think he's a Dem, even though He switched parties a long while ago

by: lordpet8 @ Thu Aug 14, 2008 at 01:44:30 AM CDT

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by: you @ soon

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Ouch

Whether or not this is accurate, that poll is likely to destroy any establishment belief in the viability of his campaign, which means he won't get independent DCCC expenditures. And whilst he might gain a bit from Virginia being ground central for Obama, McCain will put a lot of effort in there too so he can't sneak up on the outside either.

by: Englishlefty @ Wed Aug 13, 2008 at 20:19:26 PM CDT

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Don't worry, not everyone will lose hope

I sure as heck won't.

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...

by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Wed Aug 13, 2008 at 21:18:03 PM CDT

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what does that have to do with DCCC money and establishment support?

by: Lucas O'Connor @ Fri Aug 15, 2008 at 00:10:38 AM CDT

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32% of blacks?

I think not SurveyUSA. Why is this polling firm, which has an otherwise good reputation, so horrible at polling minority support for candidates? They had HRC getting 83% of Hispanics in the Texas primary and last week released a poll where McCain got about 25% of blacks in Missouri? He'll be lucky to get 5% this year.

by: Tyler Oakley @ Wed Aug 13, 2008 at 20:48:07 PM CDT

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Cross Tabs don't make sense

This poll clearly tests name ID and name ID only. Only 5% undecideds at this point? No way. SurveyUSA pushes respondents to make a call and that'll always go towards the incumbent. That's just one of a couple things that don't smell right here...

by: JohnCos @ Wed Aug 13, 2008 at 21:27:25 PM CDT

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WOW!

That is so nice.

Waffle House celebrated its 50th anniversary and my steak celebrated its 25th-Larry the Cable Guy

by: SE-779 @ Wed Aug 13, 2008 at 22:04:50 PM CDT

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Yeah It Is...

For a Republican/Independent ;-)

by: Don't Tase Me, Bro! @ Wed Aug 13, 2008 at 22:12:38 PM CDT

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Yes man, it is.

Waffle House celebrated its 50th anniversary and my steak celebrated its 25th-Larry the Cable Guy

by: SE-779 @ Wed Aug 13, 2008 at 22:20:43 PM CDT

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I don't even think Goode is good for Indies.

I mean, Tom is a fresh political face with good ideas. The idea that old Goode is somehow a better option is laughable once you've been confronted with all the information. Ceteris paribus, Tom Perriello wins hands down.

by: nrimmer @ Wed Aug 13, 2008 at 22:24:16 PM CDT

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Please

share what you like about Virgil Goode. In what way is the district or country better off because of him?

by: Lucas O'Connor @ Fri Aug 15, 2008 at 00:13:23 AM CDT

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shhh, Lucas. Be vewy, vewy quiet.

SE-779 hasn't been here tonight. Lets hope that we don't bring him back by talking to him.

by: nrimmer @ Fri Aug 15, 2008 at 00:19:07 AM CDT

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Umm,

I don't know man. I am starting to think Perriello is the better choice.

Waffle House celebrated its 50th anniversary and my steak celebrated its 25th-Larry the Cable Guy

by: SE-779 @ Fri Aug 15, 2008 at 09:08:50 AM CDT

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Ok, here's where we were in 2006

At this stage in the 2006 race this is where SUSA had the VA-05 race:

http://www.surveyusa.com/clien...

7/26/06 poll

Goode (R) 59%
Weed (D) 35%

Our candidate (Weed) improved very little between that poll and the 2006 election.

by: ChadInFL @ Wed Aug 13, 2008 at 22:40:57 PM CDT

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He also

he no money to improve on that.

We clearly are starting out from about the same place but we have a vastly superior candidate this time around.

by: Populista @ Thu Aug 14, 2008 at 00:56:02 AM CDT

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Yes. In 2006,

we were caught in a battle of "Goode vs. Weed". Hard to win that fight in a Republican tilted district.

by: JeremiahTheMessiah @ Thu Aug 14, 2008 at 01:33:14 AM CDT

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Unity Ticket

If they ever ran together, they would get my vote. ;)

by: sicembears @ Thu Aug 14, 2008 at 12:55:40 PM CDT

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Of topic But I must mention this

Gunman kills Arkansas Democratic Party chairman
My thoughts and Sympathies go out to the Family of Bill Gwatney. May he rest in Peace
http://ap.google.com/article/A...

by: lordpet8 @ Thu Aug 14, 2008 at 01:40:19 AM CDT

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Translation

Some folks need to dial back their expectations of how many seats are truly competitive and avoid head-explosions when the DCCC pull the plug on some of these red-to-blue races.

by: RandySF @ Thu Aug 14, 2008 at 10:36:58 AM CDT

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Agreed. Can't win them all.

There has got to be a few races that do nothing more then suck up resources from the NRCC and candidates. I'm not sure if Goode vs. Perriello is competitive but its looking very much like Safe Republican at this point. I'm just kinda torn because Tom is such a great candidate. It's a shame.

Just thinking, maybe Perriello will focus on winning this race over the next few election cycles. Like Gary Trauner or Eric Massa, this one might take a few years to make competitive.

by: nrimmer @ Thu Aug 14, 2008 at 10:52:26 AM CDT

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Depends on how you define competitive

Goode always was rated as likely to be re-elected with the possibility that Periello could make it close and spring a surprise. This poll doesn't change that. Personally, I'm still looking at a high teen net gain as a job well done.

by: conspiracy @ Thu Aug 14, 2008 at 10:57:34 AM CDT

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Still

A lot of people have sky-high expectations and think we can win anywhere and everywhere. I worry they may feel crushed in November and find reasons to blame Obama for it, especially if he is elected ("he ran a selfish campaign", etc). I sat down last week, looked at every race and came up with a 17-25 seat gain. There is a scenario for another 30 seat pickup, but it would have to be a crazy night.

by: RandySF @ Thu Aug 14, 2008 at 13:26:39 PM CDT

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To be fair most who post here at least are quite realistic

I don't see many if any posts saying they expect more than a repeat of the 30 or so from 2006.

by: conspiracy @ Thu Aug 14, 2008 at 15:45:42 PM CDT

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17-25 figure sounds about right

That's about what I'm thinking at this point. The 30 seat plus scenario you mention I'd give about 3-1 odds of happening. Everything will need to go right for those kind of gains.

by: ChadInFL @ Thu Aug 14, 2008 at 16:19:03 PM CDT

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On the other hand

we CAN win virtually anywhere. That's different than saying we WILL win everywhere. The whole point of competing everywhere is that you throw everything against the wall and see what sticks because you can't know before you try.

...unless you're Rahm Emanuel of course.

by: Lucas O'Connor @ Fri Aug 15, 2008 at 00:15:27 AM CDT

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Couple Charlie Cook race ratings changes (both good)

MISSOURI | District 9: Likely Republican to Lean Republican
ALABAMA | District 2: Lean Republican to Toss Up

Both moves make sense to me.

by: ChadInFL @ Thu Aug 14, 2008 at 11:05:01 AM CDT

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Yes

They make plenty of sense to me too. Go Bright. Go Baker.

Waffle House celebrated its 50th anniversary and my steak celebrated its 25th-Larry the Cable Guy

by: SE-779 @ Thu Aug 14, 2008 at 11:29:51 AM CDT

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Bright

I'm really excited to have him running. Him, Carmouche, and Segall, it's time to reclaim the South.

by: Andrew @ Thu Aug 14, 2008 at 11:42:05 AM CDT

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I agree

They are very good candidates who deserve to win.

Waffle House celebrated its 50th anniversary and my steak celebrated its 25th-Larry the Cable Guy

by: SE-779 @ Thu Aug 14, 2008 at 12:04:08 PM CDT

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Yes, great recruiting in the deep south this year

We should see some gains in the deep south, which a year or so ago looked like the one region we may lose seats in.

Even Cramer's retirement in AL-05 worked out great for us. We have a strong recruit against a repub 3rd tier opponent there. Also, the two GA seats that were nailbiters in 2006 look goos. Barrow is a shue-in and Marshall seems to be running stronger.

by: ChadInFL @ Thu Aug 14, 2008 at 12:05:45 PM CDT

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Why was the Barrow race so close last time?

What sort of D+2 district was that?

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...

by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Thu Aug 14, 2008 at 13:26:03 PM CDT

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DINOs

You'll find a lot of people in the region who call themselves Democrats but have not actually voted for one in ages.

by: RandySF @ Thu Aug 14, 2008 at 13:27:47 PM CDT

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Well that's not true

The district has a PVI that says it supported Gore/Kerry more than it did Bush.

by: Progressive America @ Fri Aug 15, 2008 at 12:56:46 PM CDT

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Max Burns was a former Congressman

OK, he only served one term, and was a bit of a walking blooper, but was able to win a solid majority of the white vote in the district. Barrow is one of many blue dogs who are really getting a pass from the GOP this time around.

by: IndianaProgressive @ Thu Aug 14, 2008 at 13:32:49 PM CDT

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Probably

Because the district was recently redrawn from a heavily Democratic district to a slightly Democratic district with new constituents, more Republicans, that were familiar with Max Burns, Barrow's 2006 opponent and former congressman.

Waffle House celebrated its 50th anniversary and my steak celebrated its 25th-Larry the Cable Guy

by: SE-779 @ Thu Aug 14, 2008 at 13:36:22 PM CDT

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Problems connected with blacks

I remember reading about his trouble somewhere.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

by: TheUnknown285 @ Thu Aug 14, 2008 at 14:42:49 PM CDT

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Ya a couple of things

Wehn Barrow won the district in 2004 it was something like D+5 which was altered to D+2 by the republican gerrymander prior to 2006. I really think that his biggest problem in 2006 was that he was too conservative and out-of-touch with the African-American base.

by: ChadInFL @ Thu Aug 14, 2008 at 16:23:37 PM CDT

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