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NC-Sen: Dole Leads by Five in New Poll

by: James L.

Tue Aug 12, 2008 at 8:01 PM EDT

SurveyUSA (8/9-11, likely voters, 7/12-14 in parens):

Kay Hagan (D): 41 (42)
Liddy Dole (R-inc): 46 (54)
Chris Cole (L): 7 (-)
(MoE: ±3.9%)

So the gap closes from 12 to 5 points, but here's the rub: SUSA is now including Libertarian Chris Cole in the match-up, and it seems very doubtful that he'll be able to perform this well on election day. For now, Cole is taking heavy chunks from males (11%), voters aged 18-34 (12%), and independents (21%). Those numbers will dissipate by November -- likely in both directions.

It's still good news for Hagan, who went up on the air with her first general election ad today. Dole's also been hit recently by ads from the DSCC and Majority Action. Hopefully the two prongs of Hagan's positives and the DSCC's attacks will help to keep the numbers moving in the right direction.

SSP currently rates this race as Lean Republican.

(H/T: RandySF)

James L. :: NC-Sen: Dole Leads by Five in New Poll
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Young Voters
I'm betting it's even a little closer than this; it seems really odd that Dole is leading with young voters 49-34.  She's probably up at least a little bit with them if the Libertarian's is hitting 12%, but a 15-point gap?

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.

Every single poll for many months
Has had Dole up big with young voters.  What the heck am I missing here?  I'd assume since NC is trending Dem that the young vote would go heavily Democratic.  I don't get it.

[ Parent ]
Sample size
Young voters are going to be a tiny part of the sample, so the MoE is going to be in that subsample is going to be huge.

[ Parent ]
Wonder if cell phones throw polls off much
I've wondered that for a good while now.  With so many young people having no house phone and only a cell phone it seems possible that that could cause an undersample of young people.

[ Parent ]
I thnk that is overblown
That was a popular idea in 2004 that did not pan out. I do not think there are enough people who exclusively use cell phones to make a difference. If young people are not weighted correctly, it'd because of past voting behavior.

[ Parent ]
Also, the new poll is more Dem, less repub
This new poll is a bit more liberal and democratic in sample than the last poll.  That could account for the shift.

It seems about right
Democrats have always had a significant registration advantage in North Carolina, even having a plurality of registered Democrats in Walter Jones' heavily conservative district (NC-03). And that's not subject to change this time around, with huge gains from the primary and a pretty successful voter registration drive.

[ Parent ]
A Libertarian?
I didn't even they had a candidate from that party running in the NC Senate! Maybe we should indirectly "encourage" that third party effort and undermine support for "Libbing" Dole.

NC Sen
Did I read the poll details wrong or did this SUSA poll use an African-American sampling of only 19%

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