CA-26: Dreier By 12

by: Crisitunity

Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 2:50 PM EDT

Russ Warner (D): 37
David Dreier (R-inc.): 49
(MoE: ±4.9%)

Here's a poll from CA-26, a race that got some initial enthusiasm earlier in the year but hasn't received much attention lately. This is an R+4 district that takes in the affluent parts of the San Gabriel Valley between Los Angeles and San Bernardino; it's one of the few districts in California that qualifies as a swing district, and one where Dreier hasn't broken out of the mid-50s in the last few elections despite drawing third-tier opposition.

The poll is an internal poll commissioned by Dem candidate Russ Warner. Unlike many internal polls, this one seems pretty plausible: long-term incumbent Dreier is up by a solid margin, but not to the extent that the race is completely locked down. The race tightens to 47-44 when candidates' bios are read.

SSP rates this race as Likely Republican.