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AK-Sen: SSP Moves Race From "Tossup" to "Lean Democratic"

by: James L.

Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 10:56 PM EDT


After Alaska Sen. Ted Stevens was indicted on seven felony counts, we moved our rating from "Lean Republican" to "Tossup", and stated that we'd have to wait for more information before we could push this race further along the chart.

Not all of the dust has settled yet, but we feel comfortable enough in moving our rating of this race from "Tossup" to "Lean Democratic". Even in a vacuum, Anchorage Mayor and Democrat Mark Begich would be a very strong candidate for statewide office in Alaska, but Begich is not running in any ordinary environment; he's up against an indicted Senator whose numbers are circling the drain in the two most recent polls.

Since Stevens' primary challengers -- all five of them -- are a feeble (if wealthy) bunch, we have to consider a primary loss or a resignation timed to allow the Alaska GOP to name a replacement to be unlikely scenarios. Stevens is a stubborn man, and he appears determined to hold out until November -- a scenario that would be a big plus for Begich.

There's still plenty of time for the situation to change (and change again), but for now, SSP is rating this race as Lean Democratic.

James L. :: AK-Sen: SSP Moves Race From "Tossup" to "Lean Democratic"
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Makes Sense...
How often do you see an indicted politician survive reelection...

Oh wait, didn't Bill Jefferson do that? Or was he indicted after his 2006 reelection?


Scandal broke before the 2006 election, he was indicted after
However, Representative of New Orleans district is much different than senator of Alaska.  

All Jefferson had to do was survive a big primary, something very possible due to the number of persons participating.  Ted Stevens is probably favored to win his primary at this point.  The difference between the two, is after the primary, Ted Stevens is going into a general election against a tough sonova gun named Mark Begich.  Jefferson sees token opposition after his primary.  


[ Parent ]
Strictly speaking...
... there was a runoff between Jefferson and Carter (which Jefferson won).

[ Parent ]
Yeah, what happened with that?


Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...

[ Parent ]
Carter wasn't popular with the other candidates
She fell out with the third place finisher over him refusing to let Katrina refugees into his town and I'm not sure she got on well with some of the others.

That, plus the knowledge that if Jefferson won they could always try again in 2008, led the third place finisher and a couple of others to throw their weight behind Jefferson.


[ Parent ]
It's possible
That Stevens could have his trial and get acquitted before November. But that would require two huge "ifs". First off, it normally takes over a year for criminal cases to get disposed of in the District of Columbia, and that includes plea bargains (which happen in probably 95-99% of cases). Cases which go to trial usually take a lot longer. It would be almost a miracle if this could happen in September, and would basically require neither side to file any pre-trial motions, or a judge who is really willing to shaft other litigants and clear time for Stevens.

The other thing, of course, is that Stevens would have to be acquitted. Meanwhile, he's already filed a motion to transfer venue to Alaska, so that's slowed things down. Though I'll note that federal district court in Alaska has shorter wait-times than in DC, so if the judge grants the motion, the timing could work a bit in Stevens' favor. Of course, the new judge might not be as accomodating in terms of even having time on his/her calendar to schedule a trial in September or October.

Anyhow, I recall that Tom DeLay also sought to try to "clear his name" quickly, and his case is still pending.



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