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OH-15: Kilroy Leads Stivers By 3 in New Poll

by: James L.

Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 2:07 AM EDT

SurveyUSA (8/2-4, likely voters):

Mary Jo Kilroy (D): 47
Steve Stivers (R): 44
Don Eckhart (I): 7
(MoE: ±4.2%)

A Benenson Strategy Group poll from May showed Kilroy leading Stivers by 47-37, so we at least know that Kilroy is awfully close to the 50% mark.

Judging by the crosstabs, independent Don Eckhart picks up support fairly equally across the board, but I would guess that many voters are merely parking their votes with an unknown option for now, and are instead truly undecided about their options. Eckhart's previous claim to fame was an independent bid against Stivers for the state Senate four years ago, where he claimed 9% of the vote. Eckhart was endorsed by the Ohio Right to Life both then and now, so perhaps he might peel off a few wingnuts from the GOP's right flank. Then again, 7% of pro-choice voters chose Eckhart in this poll...

SSP currently rates this race as a Tossup.

James L. :: OH-15: Kilroy Leads Stivers By 3 in New Poll

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OH-15: Kilroy Leads Stivers By 3 in New Poll | 6 comments

this district appears to be trending our way

Kilroy still has her high name recognition from her '06 run and has hardly stopped campaigning since then
I'm getting close to calling this lean-dem

by: lordpet8 @ Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 01:38:16 AM CDT

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I wouldn't

she only lost by 1,000 votes against an incumbent, now she's only leading by 3? that's not good.

by: Johnny Longtorso @ Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 07:04:39 AM CDT

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this feels right

stivers represents quite a chunk of the district as a state senator. in many ways, both kilroy and stivers are semi-incumbents. and looking at the district, they don't come much more evenly split than oh-15.

not a dime has been spent on advertising by either campaign or outside groups, and stivers has never run a real campaign before. he was appointed to his senate seat and then reelected against nominal competition. we've yet to see how he will stand up in a top tier congressional race. kilroy, OTOH, has been put through the meat grinder before.

anyone who thought we were going to walk away with this race doesn't have a good knowledge of the reality on the ground. but i wouldn't fret too much, we're in great shape to take this seat.

by: 2010 Buckeye @ Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 08:27:01 AM CDT

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Stivers is a strong candidate for the GOP

but Kilroy will win this. At first, I though Kilroy would be be the Lois Murphy of 2008 but this district is lookin' like it'll be more Democratic than usual in 2008.

I'm a Ralph Yarborough Democrat

by: dem4evr @ Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 03:36:48 AM CDT

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nice to see you on SSP

jw

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

by: ArkDem the Ragin Cajin @ Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 14:00:53 PM CDT

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Kilroy looking good

OH-15 has been in Republican hands since 1967.
Republicans will fight hard for this seat; but with Obama on the ticket in November, it's all over for the GOP for this seat.
Stivers is just another GOP pawn, nothing special.
Kilroy took Pryce to the woodshed in 06 and Pryce threw the towel in and retired with all the other GOP disasters; before having to actually campaign, run on her record, and go through reality again in 08.
BAAAAHHHAAAAAAA GOP, run on your record and none of you would ever win a thing.

Good Luck Maryjo in November.

This seat leans Democrat.

by: BLUEISGOOD @ Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 07:33:56 AM CDT

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OH-15: Kilroy Leads Stivers By 3 in New Poll | 6 comments