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WA-Gov: Gregoire Up Big With Narrow Lead

by: Crisitunity

Tue Aug 05, 2008 at 1:47 PM EDT


Elway Research (7/27-31, registered voters, 6/8-12 in parens):

Chris Gregoire (D-inc.): 52 (47)
Dino Rossi (R): 36 (39)
(MoE: ±5%)

The new Elway poll on the Washington governor's race gives Gregoire her largest lead of any poll this cycle, although it's pretty consistent with previous Elway and Rasmussen polling.

Strategic Vision (R) (7/25-27, likely voters, 10/5-7/2007 in parens):

Chris Gregoire (D-inc.): 47 (47)
Dino Rossi (R): 45 (45)
(MoE: ±3%)

SurveyUSA and Strategic Vision have been presenting a much closer picture of the race, although they've also been extremely consistent from poll to poll. (In fact, Strategic Vision gets exactly the same result as the last time they polled the race nine months ago.) As I've commented before, this is a race where almost every mind has been made up for four years, and we're mostly just seeing differences in pollsters' models.

The Elway poll also polled some downballot issues (albeit with huge undecided numbers), including the suddenly-hotly-contested race for Commissioner of Public Lands. Former Agriculture Director (and 2006 candidate in WA-05) Peter Goldmark (D) is leading two-term incumbent Doug Sutherland (R) 31-30. (Sexual harassment allegations against Sutherland recently came to light.)

In the Attorney General's race, incumbent Rob McKenna (R) leads Pierce County Executive John Ladenburg (D) 41-30. And the highest-profile initiative on the ballot, I-1000 (to allow physician-assisted suicide), is favored 39-26.

Crisitunity :: WA-Gov: Gregoire Up Big With Narrow Lead
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Up big with narrow lead?
I realize what you're trying to say, but that headline sounds like an oxymoron.

A reference to the dueling polls
I guess it's not that funny if you have to explain it, though.

[ Parent ]
what are the cross taps
ikn the differing polls. Maybe SUSA and SV have Republicans weighted to heavily. That being said, it be nice to have Goldsmith as a statewide officer, and it'd be even nicer to get rid of Rob McKenna. He's a rabid anti-abortion social conservative in a liberal state and he's been a big detractor of progress.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

[ Parent ]
You might be thinking of some other AG
McKenna calls himself 'pro-choice,' NARAL calls him 'mixed.' I don't know what he actually thinks about it, but he's probably running for governor in 2012, and he knows that being overtly socially conservative is the kiss of death in statewide elections in the northwest, so he tries to focus on things that everyone hates (meth, spam, identity theft) and keeps everything else as bland as possible.

[ Parent ]
cross tabs, not taps
and he's still pretty conservative.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

[ Parent ]
McKenna
He's somehow projected an image of moderation by not getting much accomplsihed, when the truth of the matter is that he is grossly unqualified to be Attorney General.  John Ladenburg is the strongest opponent McKenna could have, as the sitting Executive of the 2nd-largest county in the state (Pierce) and our biggest swing county and as a former longtime county Prosecuting Attorney.  Nevertheless, it looks like Ladenburg is just not campaigning hard enough to beat McKenna, who has blanketing the airwaves with "public service announcements" paid for by the Boeing Employees Credit Union and others.  McKenna will rack up newspaper endorsements and win, though probably not by much.

Peter Goldmark is going to beat Doug Sutherland for Commissioner of Public Lands.  Those of us on the ground here see that as perhaps the 2nd-most important race on the ballot in Washington this year after the governor's race (assuming Obama walks, which he will).  Lands Commissioner is an extremely powerful position and Sutherland has governed in close concert with his allies in the mining and timber industries.  A sexual harassment complaint against him recently hit the papers, along with a series in the conservative Seattle Times about his failure to protect sensitive slopes from landslides during last December's heavy rainfall and floods.  We desperately need Peter in this position and he looks well-positioned to win, having heavily outraised Sutherland.

The governor's race is likely closer than Elway says but not as close as Strategic Vision says.  We'll have a good sense of it after August's meaningless top-two primary.


[ Parent ]
Is Peter Goldmark a rising star in the WA Dem. party?
that's what I read somewhere, in reviewing the 2006 elections.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
I doubt it
I suppose that if he wins in November he could plan a run for governor in 4 years but if so he will have his hands full with a hot-and-heavy Democratic primary.  Seems unlikely to me.  I for one would not be happy with that because that would open up the powerful Commissioner of Public Lands office to be retaken by the Rs.

[ Parent ]
Elway is based in the state
SV is based in Georgia and a Repub firm. Which to believe?

So that's what he's been up to
John Elway is a pollster now?  

Gregoire helped Obama, now Obama will return the favor
John McCain has completely written off the Pacific Northwest, while Bush at least spent some time there.  This plus Obama's 50-state voter turnout machine is going to result in big Obama coattail effect that'll put Gregoire, Burner and Merkley over the top.

Plus, Gregoire defied the state machine and both of her state's senators in supporting Obama at a critical moment, just before the state caucuses.  That was a good call, as Obama is now helping Gregoire with her fundraising.


Michelle Obama
Already helped Gregoire. She campaigned with her and helped her raise like 400,000. I don't think Gregoire needs Obama's help. This is a Dem year, Gregoire is an incumbent has more money and is consistently polling better.

[ Parent ]
Amazingly...
over on Politico, the comments about this have a bunch of whiny Republicans and some PUMA-types complaining that this means Obama "bought" Gregoire's support.

I mean, how do you respond to sheer stupidity like that?


[ Parent ]

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