Premium Sponsor

Featured Sponsor

Our Sponsors

Ad Networks

Buy an ad on all of the top liberal blogs with just one click.

Site Stats

AK-Sen: Begich Pulls Way Ahead in New Poll

by: James L.

Fri Aug 01, 2008 at 7:10 PM EDT

Ivan Moore Research releases a pair of Alaska polls, taken before and after Stevens' indictment (7/30-31, likely voters, 7/18-22 in parens):

Mark Begich (D): 56 (51)
Ted Stevens (R-inc): 35 (43)
(MoE: ±4.8%)

Since the indictment, Alaskans aren't feeling as warm towards Stevens -- that's no surprise. The percentage of voters with a positive impression of the incumbent fell from 55% to 44% in Moore's second poll. His negatives also rose accordingly -- from 38% to 48% two weeks later.

Despite his favorables taking a hit, Stevens still has a commanding lead in the GOP primary:

Ted Stevens (R-inc): 59 (70)
Dave Cuddy (R): 19 (21)
Other: 2 (2)
Undecided: 20 (7)
(n=219)

"Other" presumably includes self-funding beardo Vic Vickers, whose frequent swipes against "Big Oil" aren't likely to get him very far in a resource-dependent state.

Things are certainly looking good right now for Mark Begich.

Bonus finding: In the 7/18-22 poll, McCain leads Obama by a mere three points in the state -- 47% to 44%.

James L. :: AK-Sen: Begich Pulls Way Ahead in New Poll

Tags: Polls, AK-Sen, Alaska, (All Tags)

Print Friendly View

Send As Email

AK-Sen: Begich Pulls Way Ahead in New Poll | 8 comments

Wow!

Holy mother of God- look at those numbers!

What does this mean for Rep. Don Young now?

by: jpsrosa @ Fri Aug 01, 2008 at 18:23:50 PM CDT

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

It Means...

Na Na Na Na
Na Na Na Na
Heyyyyyy
Goodbye!!!!!

by: Don't Tase Me, Bro! @ Sat Aug 02, 2008 at 15:11:27 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

McCain/Obama tighter than Rasmussen

Maybe Ivan Moore caught the "Stevens Effect.

by: RandySF @ Fri Aug 01, 2008 at 18:24:17 PM CDT

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

Two Questions:

How credible is this polling firm?

And could we please see more numbers for Don Young against Parnell or Berkowitz? They make me feel better about the chances of change in Alaska.

by: Don't Tase Me, Bro! @ Fri Aug 01, 2008 at 18:34:15 PM CDT

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

Ivan's a local pollster from AK

He works with Dem candidates, and he's very credible. He shared one of his polls from the AK-AL race with SSP last fall which showed Berkowitz shockingly leading Young. That poll opened the floodgates to a bunch of other surveys that subsequently showed the exact same thing.

Ivan is good people.

by: James L. @ Fri Aug 01, 2008 at 18:47:22 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Come on, Bro.

On Tuesday there was two polls showing Parnell beating Young and Berkowitz with a small lead over Parnell in the general. Feel better?

by: nrimmer @ Fri Aug 01, 2008 at 18:42:10 PM CDT

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

Let me go back and check....

Oh yeah, there are there! Thanks.

I guess I'll rephrase my request. I meant a poll between Young and Berkowitz, which I'm pretty sure would show Berkowitz crushing Young by double digits.

I still leave open the possibility that Young might capitalize on a potential split in the anti-Young vote between Parnell and LeDoux, allowing him to squeak by.

by: Don't Tase Me, Bro! @ Fri Aug 01, 2008 at 18:54:40 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

with other polling

it looks like Alaska is pretty clearcut- 42-43% baseline for any Republican, about 44-45% for Democrats, and 12% or so swing voters with a history of pretty strong Republican lean.

This year the swing vote is looking very anti-incumbent.

by: Baystater @ Sat Aug 02, 2008 at 11:28:16 AM CDT

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

AK-Sen: Begich Pulls Way Ahead in New Poll | 8 comments