I take it that means Rick Bart isn't the incumbent then.

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by: JeremiahTheMessiah @ Thu Jul 31, 2008 at 12:29:08 PM CDT

Fixed, thanks

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by: Crisitunity @ Thu Jul 31, 2008 at 12:31:17 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Wrong year for Bart

If Rick Bart had picked any other year to run, I think he would have a real shot at unseating Larsen.  As it is, he stands no chance this year.

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by: lorax @ Thu Jul 31, 2008 at 12:48:50 PM CDT

Party ID?

I didn't manage to find party ID numbers for Washington. I do notice that this month's poll has Republicans as 35% of the sample, Democrats at 34% and independents at 27%.

Is this credible? I ask because this is a blueing D+2 district and I'd expect that to be one of the places where the fall in Republican numbers would be felt the most.

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by: Englishlefty @ Thu Jul 31, 2008 at 13:12:19 PM CDT

According to CNN... in 2004, the state as a whole was

Democrat (36%)  
Republican (32%)  
Independent (33%)

In 2006 it was:
Democrat (39%)
Republican (29%)
Independent (32%)

Not sure how the district would play out (more or less Dem or Rep as compared to the whole state), the split of this poll sounds fishy to me.

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by: wmlawman @ Thu Jul 31, 2008 at 13:17:32 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

There is no party registration

in Washington. Washington used to do Top 2 primaries, then they did pick-a-party for a while, and now this year they're back to Top 2 (so a general election could have 2 Ds or 2 Rs). So there's no way to measure registration trends. I was wondering how SurveyUSA was making those distinctions; apparently they were just asking respondents what they consider themselves to be.

At a gut level, it feels realistic, because in the Northwest you get a lot of people who, because of their maverick-in-their-own-mind status, think of themselves as independents but usually vote Democratic. (That encompasses both the center, where people may ticket-split with moderate Republicans like Reichert, and the far left, where people may ticket-split with Greens or Libertarians on down-ballot stuff). If you want hard numbers, I'd look at Oregon as a comparable, which has party registration and usually behaves very similarly to Washington (if one or two points less Democratic). If you want to drill down further, OR-01 is demographically a solid comparable for WA-08.

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by: Crisitunity @ Thu Jul 31, 2008 at 13:38:30 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Although

OR-1 voted far more heavy for John Kerry than WA-8 did. I known Kerry won OR-1 by double digits, and Wa-8 by only about 2.

How cool, people talking about the two districts (Wa-8 and OR-1) that boarder my district to the north and the south lol.  

A cat can have kittens in an oven but that doesn't make them biscuits.

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by: Kyle98632 @ Thu Jul 31, 2008 at 14:35:46 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

But the Independent numbers...

show they're splitting their vote between Darcy and Reichert.

Another thing I noticed was the youth vote, where one would think Darcy should have a larger advantage.

The other thing that struck me was Reichert was getting 37% of those who consider themselves pro-choice.

And given that this district is 64% pro-choice, that's a group Darcy needs to make serious inroads with.  Highlight how Reichert has consistently voted against a woman's right to choose, and has an 82% rating from the pro-life group National Right to Life Committee.

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by: BruinKid @ Thu Jul 31, 2008 at 16:57:28 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

It's not "inexplicable" they polled WA-02......

They polled it because a local TV station paid them to poll it.  SurveyUSA is running a business and their folks need to eat.  Most of their polls are for media who pay them.

Now, you can legitimately ask why the local TV station paid for a WA-02 poll when it's on no one's radar screen as a competitive race.

But SurveyUSA will poll your local po-dunk school board race if you'll pay them to do it.

My wife caught me intellectually masturbating looking at dirty polls on Swing State Project.

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by: DCCyclone @ Thu Jul 31, 2008 at 15:20:19 PM CDT

FYI - this poll is more republican than the last

This WA-08 poll is composed of 35%R/34%D/27%I.  The last SUSA poll on this race was: 33%R/37%D/26%I.  

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by: ChadInFL @ Thu Jul 31, 2008 at 20:15:25 PM CDT

Is she too geeky?

Burner only leads by 3% among women.  Is she emphasizing the right issues?  It also may be more difficult for a female "geek" to win an election.

Also, what about working-class voters?  She may have trouble connecting with them, I'm wondering.  And did she pull the wrong t-shirt when the fire broke out?  Just some questions.  She really hasn't made any real progress in her second run for Congress.

My rating:  Lean Republican.  She's never led in a poll this cycle.

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by: mikeel @ Thu Jul 31, 2008 at 20:40:43 PM CDT

That's not a good reason

This early in a cycle it's very rare for challengers to have a lead in a Congressional race.  Many candidates havn't even won their primary or aired many ads to raise their name ID this early.  A 7 point deficit this early is definately not a bad thing.

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by: ChadInFL @ Thu Jul 31, 2008 at 20:44:11 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

but on the other hand

she's already run before, and shouldn't have name ID problems.

I'm not saying I agree with who you're replying to; I'm just presenting a counter.

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...

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by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Fri Aug 01, 2008 at 00:30:13 AM CDT

[ Parent ]