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MI-13: Tight Three-Way Race in Dem Primary

by: Crisitunity

Wed Jul 30, 2008 at 4:05 PM EDT


Epic-MRA for Detroit News (7/26-27, likely voters):

Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick (D-inc.): 33
Mary Waters (D): 29
Martha Scott (D): 24
(MoE: ±4.9%)

Here's a surprisingly close poll from a primary race that we've been paying next-to-no attention to. Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick has represented Detroit for over a decade, but suddenly she finds herself polling at only 33% for the upcoming Aug. 5 primary. The fact that ex-State Rep. Mary Waters and State Sen. Martha Scott are splitting the 'change' vote seems to be the main thing keeping Cheeks Kilpatrick in this at all.

The problem for Cheeks Kilpatrick is that she's tied her fortunes to her son, Detroit Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick. She keeps offering unconditional support for him while he keeps digging his hole deeper in the face of various investigations and indictments.

The primary election is the de facto general election in MI-13, by virtue of its D+32 status.

Crisitunity :: MI-13: Tight Three-Way Race in Dem Primary
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There have been at least 2 debates
July 20 and July 28.

Here is State Rep. Waters talking about Kilpatrick at the July 20 debate:

"She stood up and said 'no matter what my son is doing to this entire region, which destroys this entire region, you all continue to elect him."  Waters said.  She continued to Congresswoman Cheeks-Kilpatrick, "You're his momma, I understand all of that, but the people in the 13th congressional district are truly concerned about your public persona."

Then, there was this back and forth exchange:

Cheeks-Kilpatrick fired back:  "I love my son.  The judicial process will take hold of what happens.  I believe he'll be fine."  Cheeks-Kilpatrick said  that she's running on a "30-year proven record of doing wonderful things for 700-thousand people."

As the program drew to a close, Waters attacked Cheeks-Kilpatrick, while Scillian was trying to intervene, saying to Cheeks-Kilpatrick,  "You haven't done anything.  You haven't."

Cheeks-Kilpatrick fired back, "Girl, please.  You can't carry my bra!"

http://www.wwj.com/pages/26296...

This primary will be interesting to watch for entertainment value alone.  Not sure if there are any major differences on the issues.


Have the other candidates even raised any money?
I can't find any financial information on them.

Waters
Waters raised $10,033 through July 16 and had $500 cash on hand.  Cheeks-Kilpatrick raised $795,000 and had $457,000  cash on hand.  Nothing at the FEC on Scott.  The faucets will be turned on for the next week for the incumbent.

[ Parent ]
Primary Finance
Neither candidate has raised funds against Kilpatrick, yet when Kilpatrick get's herself in the news for all the wrong reasons and her son provides an assist, then quite frankly why even raise funds when you're getting free media coverage compliments of the Kilpatrick's.

I hope she loses.
I'm a huge democrat and live in Michigan. However the Kilpatricks are a waste of time and only push selfish agendas that favor their buddies while hundreds of thousands of people in Detroit suffer from their narrow perception of reality.

I doubt she will lose because she will be able to spend her way to safety, but Detroit does deserve better!  


At 33% a week before the primary, Kilpatrick could well lose
especially if Scott drops out and endorses Waters.

[ Parent ]
Plurality Or Majority
Does Michigan primaries for House or Senate require just a plurality, or does it go to a runoff if the winner gets less than 50%?

[ Parent ]
Doubtful anyone is leaving the race
Martha Scott was mayor of Highland Park before most people on here were alive. She won't drop out, plus the primary is tuesday. I hope Martha wins just because she is awesome!

They are pretty similar on the issues. Plus i also heard the Martha Scott was only running to save Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick by splitting the anti-vote.

Just a rumor.


[ Parent ]
Mary Waters Ad
This ad from Mary Waters makes Kilpatrick look like a fool.

"Dont' Let Nobody Talk About Yaw's Boy!"
I LOVE that line!

[ Parent ]
NC-05
I'll post it here too... but on a local blog, PPP shows Virginia Foxx (R-NC) only leading her Dem Challenger Roy Carter 51-41 in a very GOP district (Bush 66% '00 and '04).  I put it here because its a "race that nobody is watching" too.

www.wataugawatch.net

help us out here folks:
www.roycarterforcongress.com


better dems?
is this an obvious place where we should be looking to find a better Democrat?  Is either of the challengers an obviously better Dem than Kilpatrick?  If so, the netroots should prolly jump in quick.  

Check out http://electioninspection.word... for the latest news, election results, poll analysis, and predictions

Given that the primary is in five days
I think it's a little late at this point.

[ Parent ]
For this session
she has a Progressive Punch score of 97.2, and she's a member of the Progressive Caucus, so, no, she's pretty good on the issues. I think this race is mostly about personalities.

[ Parent ]
thanks
guess that answers that question

also, to the poster above,  I think you'd be surprised at what impact a few bloggers can have.  I'm sure there are people who read these blogs from the district and if we began talking about how Waters was the better candidate than Kilpatrick that they'd go out an volunteer over the next 5 days if they haven't already.  

In a low turnout race thats this close, every vote matters, which means ever phone call, piece of literature delivered,every yard sign delivered or held by a person and every friend talked to about tha race matters even more.  

Check out http://electioninspection.word... for the latest news, election results, poll analysis, and predictions


[ Parent ]

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