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SSP Cash Power Rankings: 2Q House Edition

by: James L.

Fri Jul 25, 2008 at 12:43 AM EDT

It's time. Just as we did after the first quarter, we've rounded up and ranked the top 75 non-open seat House races according to the SSP Cash Power Index -- a metric designed to measure cash-on-hand competitiveness. We divide a challenger's cash-on-hand by the size of the incumbent's war chest to gauge the financial gap between candidates.

Let's have a look at where we stand after the second quarter. You'll notice that eight of the top ten challengers are Democrats, and the top-ranked Republican is Deborah "The Defrauder" Honeycutt. 47 of the top 75 challengers are Democrats while 27 are Republicans. A lone independent makes the chart for the first time:

Cash Power Rank	1Q Rank	District	Challenger	Party	CoH	Incumbent	Party	CoH	Cash Power Index
1	(n/a)	LA-01	Harlan	D	$554	Scalise	R	$211	263%
2	9	GA-13	Honeycutt	R	$290	Scott	D	$119	244%
3	2	TX-07	Skelly	D	$1050	Culberson	R	$550	191%
4	1	ID-01	Minnick	D	$444	Sali	R	$250*	178%
5	4	WA-08	Burner	D	$1248	Reichert	R	$916	136%
6	28	IL-14	Oberweis	R	$547	Foster	D	$443	123%
7	8	FL-24	Kosmas	D	$936	Feeney	R	$795	118%
8	14	IN-03	Montagano	D	$352	Souder	R	$323	109%
9	6	MI-07	Schauer	D	$929	Walberg	R	$855	109%
10	3	NY-29	Massa	D	$652	Kuhl	R	$619	105%
11	16	MO-06	Barnes	D	$962	Graves	R	$936	103%
12	7	OH-02	Wulsin	D	$378	Schmidt	R	$393	96%
13	11	VA-10	Feder	D	$812	Wolf	R	$849	96%
14	31	AK-AL	Berkowitz	D	$399	Young	R	$461	87%
15	12	CT-04	Himes	D	$1444	Shays	R	$1698	85%
16	26	KY-03	Northup	R	$819	Yarmuth	D	$1002	82%
17	(n/a)	LA-06	Cassidy	R	$195	Cazayoux	D	$271	72%
18	21	FL-16	Valeche	R	$829	Mahoney	D	$1172	71%
19	23	WI-08	Gard	R	$649	Kagen	D	$927	70%
20	38	FL-25	Garcia	D	$701	M. Diaz-Balart	R	$1045	67%
21	13	NH-01	Bradley	R	$475	Shea-Porter	D	$749	63%
22	(n/a)	AK-AL	LeDoux	R	$289	Young	R	$461	63%
23	15	VA-05	Perriello	D	$520	Goode	R	$834	62%
24	39	FL-21	Martinez	D	$1079	L. Diaz-Balart	R	$1755	61%
25	44	VA-02	Nye	D	$409	Drake	R	$682	60%
26	30	MI-09	Peters	D	$1082	Knollenberg	R	$1891	57%
27	(n/a)	NY-24	Hanna	R	$409	Arcuri	D	$727	56%
28	19	KS-02	Jenkins	R	$489	Boyda	D	$892	55%
29	48	KS-03	Jordan	R	$616	Moore	D	$1140	54%
30	27	NC-10	Johnson	D	$219	McHenry	R	$411	53%
31	42	TX-10	Doherty	D	$260	McCaul	R	$489	53%
32	18	AZ-03	Lord	D	$707	Shadegg	R	$1354	52%
33	58	PA-15	Bennett	D	$354	Dent	R	$687	52%
34	25	CA-50	Leibham	D	$267	Bilbray	R	$528	51%
35	20	FL-09	Dicks	D	$323	Bilirakis	R	$643	50%
36	46	CO-04	Markey	D	$580	Musgrave	R	$1156	50%
37	33	CA-11	Andal	R	$663	McNerney	D	$1376	48%
38	29	OH-01	Driehaus	D	$631	Chabot	R	$1312	48%
39	45	NY-20	Treadwell	R	$1269	Gillibrand	D	$2803	45%
40	(n/a)	AK-AL	Parnell	R	$208	Young	R	$461	45%
41	36	FL-08	Stuart	D	$415	Keller	R	$935	44%
42	68	IL-13	Harper	D	$300	Biggert	R	$680	44%
43	(n/a)	NV-03	Titus	D	$553	Porter	R	$1277	43%
44	50	IL-10	Seals	D	$1176	Kirk	R	$2857	41%
45	24	NJ-05	Shulman	D	$258	Garrett	R	$649	40%
46	57	PA-04	Hart	R	$625	Altmire	D	$1574	40%
47	(n/a)	PA-12	Russell	R	$250	Murtha	D	$644	39%
48	37	FL-16	Rooney	R	$451	Mahoney	D	$1172	38%
49	34	AZ-05	Schweikert	R	$521	Mitchell	D	$1372	38%
50	59	CT-05	Cappiello	R	$711	Murphy	D	$1901	37%
51	(n/a)	FL-08	Grayson	D	$345	Keller	R	$935	37%
52	41	FL-13	Jennings	D	$579	Buchanan	R	$1573	37%
53	64	AL-03	Segall	D	$411	Rogers	R	$1120	37%
54	73	NV-02	Derby	D	$353	Heller	R	$984	36%
55	49	GA-08	Goddard	R	$489	Marshall	D	$1372	36%
56	32	NH-01	Stephen	R	$257	Shea-Porter	D	$749	34%
57	63	PA-06	Roggio	D	$260	Gerlach	R	$762	34%
58	43	TN-09	Tinker	D	$247	Cohen	D	$727	34%
59	(n/a)	MS-01	Davis	R	$54	Childers	D	$161	34%
60	(n/a)	OH-02	Krikorian	I	$131	Schmidt	R	$393	33%
61	53	AZ-08	Bee	R	$688	Giffords	D	$2078	33%
62	54	IN-09	Sodrel	R	$379	Hill	D	$1160	33%
63	(n/a)	CO-05	Bidlack	D	$77	Lamborn	R	$237	32%
64	(n/a)	SC-01	Ketner	D	$432	Brown	R	$1340	32%
65	(n/a)	MN-01	Davis	R	$377	Walz	D	$1211	31%
66	(n/a)	CA-03	Durston	D	$189	Lungren	R	$615	31%
67	10	TN-04	Lankford	R	$140	L. Davis	D	$461	30%
68	56	CA-45	Bornstein	D	$122	Bono Mack	R	$421	29%
69	40	FL-08	Smith	D	$269	Keller	R	$935	29%
70	51	WV-02	Barth	D	$353	Moore Capito	R	$1237	29%
71	55	IN-04	Ackerson	D	$178	Buyer	R	$629	28%
72	(n/a)	CA-46	Cook	D	$97	Rohrabacher	R	$388	25%
73	22	KS-02	Ryun	R	$223	Boyda	D	$892	25%
74	69	NJ-04	Zeitz	D	$125	Smith	R	$504	25%
75	71	FL-18	Taddeo	D	$457	Ros-Lehtinen	R	$1893	24%

*Estimate.

James L. :: SSP Cash Power Rankings: 2Q House Edition

Tags: Fundraising, SSP Cash Power Index, SSP Cash Power Rankings, 2Q 2008, (All Tags)

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SSP Cash Power Rankings: 2Q House Edition | 16 comments

morbid curiosity...

Hi James, just wondering, who dropped off of the list?

by: JimM @ Fri Jul 25, 2008 at 00:08:17 AM CDT

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Good question...

IA-04 (Meyer), IA-02 (Miller-Meek), PA-10 (Hackett), OH-03 (Mitakides), FL-16 (Harrell), PA-08 (Manion), NJ-05 (Abate), PA-18 (O'Donnell), NY-13 (Harrison and Recchia), NV-03 (Daskas)... I think that's it, but I'd have to double-check.

by: James L. @ Fri Jul 25, 2008 at 00:17:30 AM CDT

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A couple more

AZ-05 (Ogsbury) and IL-06 (Morgenthaler).

by: James L. @ Fri Jul 25, 2008 at 00:23:06 AM CDT

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Fifteen names dropped off

Several lost primaries or dropped out (in order by district):

District	Challenger	Party
AZ-05	Ogsbury	R
FL-16	Harrell	R
IA-02	Miller-Meeks	R
IA-04	Meyer	D
IL-06	Morgenthaler	D
IN-02	Puckett	R
NJ-05	Abate	D
NV-03	Daskas	D
NY-13	Harrison	D
NY-13	Recchia	D
OH-03	Mitakides	D
PA-08	Manion	R
PA-10	Hackett	R
PA-18	O'Donnell	D
SC-02	Miller	D

by: DavidNYC @ Fri Jul 25, 2008 at 00:33:20 AM CDT

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Kevin Powell

Did not file an FEC report but claimed to have raised $60,000 in a filing night party with Dave Chapelle (a no show). Since Democratic incumbent Ed Towns is at $381,605 he is probably close to the 24% cut off point. The filing dealine was July 10.

In NJ, the closest percentage for those not making the cut was 6% (Kurkowski vs. LoBiondo, NJ-2); Tom Wyka (2% in NJ-11) was next.

by: David Kowalski @ Fri Jul 25, 2008 at 02:22:25 AM CDT

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I'm the Internet Director for Kevin Powell's Campaign

And we did file an FEC report, but that party came after the deadline, so it wasn't reported. However, between that fundraiser and our other efforts (including what was on the FEC reports), I'd estimate that we're at about 25% of Ed Towns' CoH, and we have the advantage of a small-dollar donor base that can donate more compared to Ed Towns' donors, many of whom have already maxed out.

Elect a real Democrat in Brooklyn. Kevin Powell for Congress.

by: msrpotus @ Fri Jul 25, 2008 at 13:49:11 PM CDT

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Where'd you get numbers for Sali?

Last report before 6/30 had him sitting on 157K, so 250K is a new number. Didn't see any new reports on the FEC site.

by: JeremiahTheMessiah @ Fri Jul 25, 2008 at 00:20:10 AM CDT

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Ah, good question.

I'm using numbers that he gave to The Hill until he files his report. Once we get the precise nums, I'll swap out the old ones.

by: James L. @ Fri Jul 25, 2008 at 00:22:40 AM CDT

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William Russell

in PA-12, who's posted impressive fundraising numbers against Jack Murtha, is another client of BMW Direct. TPM broke the story after Michelle Malkin started gushing about this guy's chances.

by: Crisitunity @ Fri Jul 25, 2008 at 11:10:56 AM CDT

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TX-22

I was surprised to see TX-22 no where on the list given that Lampson is generally viewed as our most vulnerable incumbent. But, on further reflection, I'd guess it's because the Rs had a hard fought primary and have spent their money. If so, this list might mislead as to the future monetary competitiveness of any districts where the challenger fought a tough primary battle.

by: sicembears @ Fri Jul 25, 2008 at 11:49:06 AM CDT

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Looking back to 2006

45% (15 of 33) of Democrats who raised 64%+ compared to their Republican incumbent opponents won.

13% (6 of 46) of Democrats who raised between 25% and 63% vs. Republican incumbents won.

0% (0 of 119) of Democrats who raised less than 25% as much as the Republican incumbent won.

These benchmarks can be used as barometers for success in 2008.

It is interesting that the Cash Power Index cuts off at 24%. If a challenger does not appear on this list (or get on there by November), he or she has almost no chance of winning.

by: DCal @ Fri Jul 25, 2008 at 14:02:49 PM CDT

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NC-08?

Out of curiosity, what was the index for NC-08 in 2006?

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...

by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Fri Jul 25, 2008 at 14:07:28 PM CDT

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Kissell raised 32% of what Hayes did in 2006

The other factor to consider is the amount the DCCC puts in, because that is not included in the percentages.

by: DCal @ Fri Jul 25, 2008 at 14:59:24 PM CDT

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i thought the DCCC spent nothing here in 2006

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...

by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Sat Jul 26, 2008 at 06:13:32 AM CDT

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I think the size of the wave can throw that off

In normal (pro-incumbent and neutral) election cycles the cutoff is probably much higher. I'd imagine 50-60% or more is needed to have any chance of a pickup in those sort of years.

In 2006 due to the Dem wave the bar was lowered to 24%. 2008 could be either higher or lower than 24% depending on the size of the wave.

by: ChadInFL @ Fri Jul 25, 2008 at 16:07:36 PM CDT

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DCCC $$ is the wild card

The $60 million or so that the DCCC is planning to spread around for Democratic candidates will make a lot more Dems competitive than they would be on their own fundraising.

by: bear83 @ Fri Jul 25, 2008 at 22:38:25 PM CDT

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SSP Cash Power Rankings: 2Q House Edition | 16 comments