Frank Kratovil (D): 28
Andy Harris (R): 44
(MoE: ±5.7%)
A different internal poll taken for Frank Kratovil in May had the race slightly closer, at 43-34. For what it's worth, between the Finkelstein poll's high margin of error, its single day range and its sample of registered (and not likely) voters, I think I prefer the Garin-Hart-Yang numbers.
Kratovil has the geographical advantage of being the only candidate in the race from the district's Eastern Shore, whereas Harris' base is in the Baltimore suburbs. But this race will instantaneously get more interesting if Kratovil could manage to score a fall endorsement from Wayne Gilchrest, the longtime moderate incumbent whom Harris defeated in the GOP primary. Many of Gilchrest's staffers are already working for the Democrat's campaign, so perhaps it could happen.
