Northup Poll

I would say this race is not going to be one of the top races.  In fact, Nortup was the first official incumbent to lose on Election night.  Her district was won by Obama overwhelmingly, the only one in all of Kentucky.  She could not even beat Fletcher, an ethically tained Governor.  The likelihood of her beating Yarmuth, with an increase in African-American turnout is beyond practical.  In fact, why even consider the race Lean Democrat when it should really be Likely Democrat.  

Too many of these pollsters and political pundits like to make conservative rankings.  Just a little study of voting patters and turnout and the past failures of Big Oil Annie is enough to conclude that she won't get past the finish line this year.  The funniest part of studying this race is that Big Oil Annie wants to make it about energy costs (this coming from an individual that collected more from Big Oil than anyone else in the House, except those from Texas).  

Big Oil wants Annie to win, however the voters of Louisville are likely to give her a third strike out in three straight years.

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by: antoni @ Tue Jul 22, 2008 at 07:15:42 AM CDT

Schadenfreude

The funniest part is that KY right-wing blogs are celebrating the fact that she's down 10 points.

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by: MediaCzech @ Tue Jul 22, 2008 at 10:47:24 AM CDT

10 points sounds about right

That is right around where I imagine the race will be on election day.

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by: ChadInFL @ Tue Jul 22, 2008 at 13:06:50 PM CDT

Rasmussen: CO-SEN - Udall by 4

http://www.rasmussenreports.co...

Udall (D)- 47 (49)
Schaffer (R)- 43 (40)

Fav/Unfav:
Udall - 54/38
Schaffer - 54/38

How the heck does Schaffer have favorables that high?  Has he been holding back and not spending much of that huge sash reserve yet?

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by: ChadInFL @ Tue Jul 22, 2008 at 15:17:40 PM CDT

Rasmussen's been weird today

Obama and McCain tied in the tracking poll, McCain +10 in Ohio, and now that poll.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

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by: TheUnknown285 @ Tue Jul 22, 2008 at 15:33:29 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

I'm beginning to think that

Rasmussens poll to poll fluctuations are a bit rediculous at this point.  And this one isn't even the worst offender.

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by: wmlawman @ Tue Jul 22, 2008 at 16:09:44 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

I agree

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by: conspiracy @ Tue Jul 22, 2008 at 16:15:32 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

ARG poll for NH-Sen

Shaheen - 58%
Sununu - 36%

http://americanresearchgroup.com/

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by: unertl @ Tue Jul 22, 2008 at 17:19:55 PM CDT

Looks like the SSP rating change was the right move!

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by: conspiracy @ Tue Jul 22, 2008 at 17:46:54 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Well...

...that IS ARG, a notoriously crappy pollster, but I'll still take it.

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by: James L. @ Tue Jul 22, 2008 at 17:56:01 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

They're based in New Hampshire, right?

Are they not-so-crappy when it comes to polling New Hampshire races?  Or are they just as craptacular there too?

* goes to check *

Oh wait, I see, ARG had Sununu LEADING by 11 points last December.  OK, craptacular in their own state too.

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by: BruinKid @ Tue Jul 22, 2008 at 18:03:54 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Astoundingly craptacular

But even ARG can't be wrong by over twenty points. I think we can safely say she is ahead and by quite a large margin.

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by: conspiracy @ Tue Jul 22, 2008 at 18:19:01 PM CDT

[ Parent ]