I know MO-2

isn't on your radar (nor is it even on most people's radar in Missouri) but it could be a competitive race. The incumbent, Todd Akin, is far right in a moderately conservative district, and he's never faced serious Democratic competition. Since taking office in 2000, Akin has faced a guy who no Democrat has ever seen on the campaign trail, and a guy who has vowed to oppose the corrupt practice of fundraising.

And Akin has been treating this year like any other year, voting against the farm bill in a district with a significant rural component, and focusing on social issues like gay marriage and abortion when the economy and Iraq are all anyone is talking about.

And Akin's district is trending blue - key state legislative seats that have been Republican for decades have either turned blue or were narrowly lost by weak Democratic candidates. This year's crop of candidates up and down the ballot is infinitely stronger than in 2006, too, from Obama at the top to Nixon running for Gov to state legislative candidates like Deb Lavender and Kristi Manning. Both Mike Garman and Byron DeLear have a real outside shot at picking up the seat.

Join us at Show Me Progress!

---

by: Clark @ Tue Jul 22, 2008 at 07:10:53 AM CDT

Response

You may be correct, yet there is no serious Democratic challenger here.  Sure, you have a candidate that is able to throw $100K, but there's no serious fundraising going on here.  Also, just because the state legislature may be represented by Democrats here does not necessarily mean that individuals here are going to vote Democratic for the federal level (AL, KY, LA, and MS are prime examples of legislatures dominated by Democrats, yet consistently voting Republican on the federal level).

And the good thing is that the Republican Party is moving more to the right (since the majority of the country is in the center).  The whole point is to isolate the Republican Party into the South.  They're practically extinct in New England and will be gone from the Midwest and the West in a matter of time.  And as Texas turns from red to purple we will slowly see radical Republicans crawl up in an area that includes SC, AL, KY, MS, TN, OK, north TX, and UT.  It's best to keep a disease contained in as small of an area as possible.  

---

by: antoni @ Tue Jul 22, 2008 at 07:56:42 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

True

My point is that Akin is leaving himself open, and a skilled challenger with a better profile (like say, John Temporiti) would have automatically made this a very competitive race. I still think there's an outside shot for someone like Garman or DeLear, especially if Garman can learn to speak better in public.

Join us at Show Me Progress!

---

by: Clark @ Tue Jul 22, 2008 at 08:51:37 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Ratings

Barrow, Bean, Donnelly, and Space should all be Safe Democrat (no longer on anyone's list).  Their opponents are particularly weak in stature and fundraising.  

---

by: antoni @ Tue Jul 22, 2008 at 07:44:06 AM CDT

Great analysis!

I agree with the above, esp for Space and Donnelly.

I still think, Gov's problems aside, that Halverson is still favored in IL.

I'd say that Lampson is lean-R and Mahoney is toss-up at best. They both have lousy voting records, so I won't be especially sad if/when they lose...

AZ-01 has been a nightmare for the R's--I'd say that's lean Dem.

Love seeing the Diaz-Balart bros having such a difficult time! They're scum, and they have solid challengers.  

---

by: greg91020 @ Tue Jul 22, 2008 at 08:13:51 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Given the district he represents...

I'm not upset with Lampson.  Mahoney's a different story, but dude, in a place like Sugarland, you're simply not going to get anyone better than Nick.  Per ProgressivePunch, Nick still has a lifetime score of 74.47%.  Pete Olson's score would be in the single digits.

---

by: BruinKid @ Tue Jul 22, 2008 at 16:39:28 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

No, Mahoney isn't a different story

Don't let the districts slight R+2 PVI fool you, this is traditionally republican turf both at the national and local level.  I'm thrilled to have a democrat who votes with us as much as Mahoney does in that district.  If he does lose I'll guarantee you he is replaced by a far-right republican who will vote against us 99% of the time.  

---

by: ChadInFL @ Tue Jul 22, 2008 at 18:07:30 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Finally, someone who's bothered to explain the R+2

I always wondered, why do people say it's so Republican and such a tough district (on the order of R+8 toughness or so), despite its being only R+2.

...but yeah...why is it "traditionally Republican turf"?  What are the district's demographics like?

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...

---

by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Wed Jul 23, 2008 at 00:56:58 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

CT-04?

How on earth could this race not be in the tossup category.  Himes is at least as good if not a better candidate than we had in 2006 and is raising piles of cash.  That combined with a huge commitment from the DCCC should allow him to beat Shays.  The WORST case scenario is probably another 52-48 loss in this race.  This race has been a tossup for months now.

---

by: ChadInFL @ Tue Jul 22, 2008 at 09:58:48 AM CDT

still fighting the good fight in CO-04

Colorado Independent today posted an analysis of voter trends in Weld County, the make-or-break area in this district for Marilyn Musgrave.

It's still an uphill fight but a few things are breaking for the Dems:

Betsy Markey bested Musgrave in Q2 fundraising. The first time that's ever happened during Musgrave's tenure in Congress. Musgrave generally doesn't raise her own money and the NRCC hasn't yet (and may not) pony up.

The mudslinging has begun early this cycle with 527s and PACs already attacking Musgrave for her faux bipartisan reinvention.

That all said, Markey has to run a flawless race. But every cycle knocking off Musgrave is becoming more do-able.  

Colorado Independent and Unbossed -- pursuing truth over balance.

---

by: em dash @ Tue Jul 22, 2008 at 10:34:49 AM CDT

We love AL-03 and NC-10

These are two upset specials that I find fascinating.

AL-03 - watch this race closely. These demographics favor a Democrat that is well funded. Segall has a ways to go but if he gets hot and gets close to Rogers watch out.

NC-10 - If Daniel Johnson can stay up on the air and go after McHenry this is going to be a fight to the finish.  

---

by: politicalal @ Tue Jul 22, 2008 at 11:12:10 AM CDT

I think MO-09 should only be leans Republican

I continue to think MO-09 (an open seat) is at least as vulnerable as MO-06.

It is true that Kay Barnes has raised a ton of money in MO-06, but so has the incumbent Graves.

In the MO-09 the supposed Republican frontrunner (Bob Onder) mistakenly released his fundraising numbers early and only raised 90K last quarter.

I expect that two of the four Democrats: Baker and Gaw will have each raised more than Onder in the quarter and that their profiles will make them very competitive against a right-wing, one issue anti-choice, anti-stem cell research candidate like Onder.

O.k. so even many Democratic voters in the district are anti-choice but not that many Democrats and Independents are anti-stem cell research and I think health care (Judy Baker's area of expertise), the economy, and energy will be the big issues this time around.  

But I am o.k. with the "likely Republican" ranking for now. It will be all the more fun when the Democrat (most likely Judy Baker) wins in November!

---

by: Wayne in Missouri @ Tue Jul 22, 2008 at 11:39:14 AM CDT

We spent a lot of time debating these ratings in Austin...

...and MO-09 was one race where we thought long and hard about upgrading, but ultimately, we decided to wait for the primary to sort out the field to get a clearer view of the dynamics.

I'm glad that the Club for Growth is raising a ruckus here, though.

---

by: James L. @ Tue Jul 22, 2008 at 13:12:50 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

That's probably fair

Are you thinking more about the Republican or Democratic sides? My feel is that Baker is a slightly better candidate then Gaw but both would have about as good chances. Is it the Republican side that you want to see?

---

by: Populista @ Tue Jul 22, 2008 at 15:09:20 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

That seems fair

In reference to populista's question it seems like the dynamics could vary quite a bit depending on who the Republican nominees are in particular.

I think Baker is the most electable Democrat. The four Democrats to win the 9th district in state races since 2002 are Susan Montee, Robin Carnahan, Claire McCaskill and Jay Nixon so it is winnable with the right candidate. Steve Gaw didn't fare so well against Matt Blunt in a statewide open seat race for Secretary of State in 2000 (a year where every Democrat running for statewide office won except Gaw) so he has some electability questions, but 2008 is probably even more of a Democratic year than 2000 so he'd probably at least move the race from likely Republican to leans Republican.

Ken Jacob and Lyndon Bode would probably keep the race in Republican likely territory because of their lack of ability to raise money, but I suspect neither are likely to get near Baker or Gaw's totals in the primary.

The Republicans probably muddy the waters even further. Anyone of four candidates Onder, Luetkemeyer, Moore or Olivo could potentially win though I think Onder and Luetkemeyer are the favorites.

If Onder and Luetkemeyer split the conservative vote and pave the way for an Olivo upset the race might be upgraded to tossup as Olivo will likely raise some questions about preparedness for the job. Onder has his own issues as he has been dubbed a right-wing one-issue extremist. There is very little difference in positions between Onder and Luetkemeyer but for some reason Luetkemeyer is perceived as more of a moderate and is probably therefore the more electable of the two right-wing candidates.

The Q2 fundraising numbers will probably help in terms of unmuddying the waters some too.

 

---

by: Wayne in Missouri @ Tue Jul 22, 2008 at 16:27:31 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Pretty good rankings

still a little on the safe side, IMO but these are your ratings not mine :)

---

by: Populista @ Tue Jul 22, 2008 at 12:12:22 PM CDT

I agree with all of them

except MO-9 and WY-AL being lean Republicans.

---

by: Andrew @ Tue Jul 22, 2008 at 12:17:11 PM CDT

WY-AL

I haven't seen polling lately, but by the two polls I've seen, I'd give it toss-up status, probably made into lean R by the PVI.  But that's based on only two polls.

Then again, how many polls have we seen of other races?

Speaking of wanting polling, could someone poll the ID-Sen race please?  I've already invested my attention on it, but it seems that other people are waiting for some nice polling before they will.  I'd also like to see how the best campaigner that I've ever seen is doing.

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...

---

by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Tue Jul 22, 2008 at 13:40:24 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

at the same time

PA-11 (Kanjorski) needs to be slid over some.  Barletta's a real challenge.

---

by: Adam B. @ Tue Jul 22, 2008 at 15:11:20 PM CDT

No he's not

One absurd partisan poll showing Barletta in good shape doesn't make this a race.  No way in hell a nutter like Barletta beats a 12-term congressman in a D+5 district who fits the district very well.  Barletta is a one-issue candidate who has only made a name for himself by bashing immigrants.

Barletta had his shot at Kanjorski in the pro-republican year of 2002 and lost 56-42%.  Kanjorski should win by double-digits.  This race is likely dem as it should be.

---

by: ChadInFL @ Tue Jul 22, 2008 at 18:13:36 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

yes, but ...

... bashing immigrants plays well up there.  Barletta didn't have nearly the profile then that he does now, thanks to the ordinance litigation.

---

by: Adam B. @ Tue Jul 22, 2008 at 18:41:19 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

As I mentioned during our panel

This is a race we debated amongst ourselves very extensively. It could go either way. In the end, we decided to hold steady in the absence of further information. But we're ready to move this to Lean D at any time.

---

by: DavidNYC @ Tue Jul 22, 2008 at 19:25:10 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

James, great to see you in Austin!

And congrats to the Swing State and Friends crew for kicking ass on the pub trivia challenge!

---

by: karichisholm @ Tue Jul 22, 2008 at 16:50:18 PM CDT

Great to meet you, too, Kari!

I had fun meeting Jeff Merkley and the blue Oregon crew.

---

by: James L. @ Tue Jul 22, 2008 at 16:58:07 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

It was a fun panel on Saturday

my equivalent of watching Sportscenter.

---

by: Seth D @ Wed Jul 23, 2008 at 16:33:19 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

I think there are a fair number of us who follow politics the way other people follow sports

except politics means much more about the fate of our counties, our states, our country (I assume the vast majority of us are from the USA), and our world.

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...

---

by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Wed Jul 23, 2008 at 16:48:49 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

AL-03

The Segall race is definately one that should be getting a lot of recongition. The DCCC should take notice, and its time for new leadership in the third district.  

---

by: bamakid @ Tue Jul 22, 2008 at 18:28:07 PM CDT

Reichert got lucky

the only reason why a Republican got elected was because Reichert used his popularity from catching a serial killer in a pro-republican year to win this seat

As much as I admired him for catching the green river killer, I was dismayed to see him get into politics as Rep

---

by: lordpet8 @ Tue Jul 22, 2008 at 20:58:34 PM CDT

I voted for him several times

as King County Sheriff. Sheriff is a nonpartisan elected position in Washington, so nobody really knew he was a Republican, and he seemed to get along just fine with the Dem-controlled county government. (I certainly haven't been tempted to vote for him for Representative, though it's not an issue because I don't live in WA-08.) That goodwill carried over from his previous job is the main reason he's able to hold onto the independent/moderate voters as well as he does.

---

by: Crisitunity @ Tue Jul 22, 2008 at 22:08:40 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Ohio- you're too pessimistic

OH-15 is "likely D" OH-16 and OH-01 are "leans D" and OH-14 is gonna be interesting. Throw in some of the other races that are heating up and given the ineptitude of the Ohio GOP and the infighting with the GOP national House campaign committee and you have a "perfect storm."

(Well, except for my district...)(And some others)

---

by: ohio_anon @ Tue Jul 22, 2008 at 22:10:26 PM CDT

OH-01 et al.

OH-01: I'm not sure I'd consider it "leans D" at this point--our 2006 performance was not enough despite what I remember of the national attention on the race.  But then again, I'm not living in Cincinnati (or anywhere in OH) anymore, so I don't know about conditions on the ground.

I'd agree that OH-15 is at least lean D and quite possibly likely D because Kilroy ran last time and came within inches of winning.

What district are you in?

(I used to live in what's currently OH-07, but basically right next to what's currently OH-01, and then for about a year in OH-02.)

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...

---

by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Wed Jul 23, 2008 at 00:53:05 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

ID-01 probably ought to be in lean R

Bill Sali has the power of incumbency in what's usually a solidly R district, but plenty of strikes against him:

a weak performance in 2006, when he barely won

abysmal fundraising; the Democrat, Walt Minnick, is kicking his butt and has DCCC support

A pile of unpaid debt that's about half as high as his cash on hand, and an inept campaign operation that's eight days late (and counting) on its June FEC filing.

Obama coattails ... Obama did better in Idaho than any other state, with an 81 percent win in our caucus. Expect a lot of ticket splitting here, as some Repubs and many Independents go with Barr or Obama.  

Sali may well eke this out as he did in 06, but it'll be via another low single digit win if he does. And this seat was in Dem hands 1990-1994 (by Larry LaRocco, a contender for the Senate this year), so there's recent historical precedent for an upset.

---

by: Julie in Boise @ Wed Jul 23, 2008 at 18:19:10 PM CDT

Dem Voter Registration Up in NV-03

Between Nov 2006 and Jun 2008 the margin of Dem to Rep voters in NV-03 has increased from +2,877 to +23,774. We are looking good in NV-03.  Really good.

---

by: IvanE @ Wed Jul 23, 2008 at 20:57:51 PM CDT

challenge assessment of NH-1

I still believe this race should be listed in the toss-up column rather than lean Dem.  

Former Rep. Jed. Bradley has INCREASED his lead over Carol Shea-Porter in the Univ. of NH poll.  In April he led Shea-Porter 41-39 and now, in July, his lead has expanded to 46-40.

When I asserted this race was closer than thought back in April I got jumped here, but I feel validated now that this race is much closer than it is being portrayed here at Swing State Project.  Wishful thinking is rampant regarding NH-1 unfortunately.

Link to polling data: http://unh.edu/survey-center/n...

"My name's Dr. Multimillionaire and I kicked your ass." -- Rep. Steve Kagen D-WI to Karl Rove

---

by: walja @ Thu Jul 24, 2008 at 01:38:11 AM CDT

NM-01 Heinrich

This is a seat I'm thinking will be a pick-up in November, in part due to Obama & Udall's Polling being a help in this D+2 District. Heather Wilson may have skated for years based on certain unfounded perceptions, and Patricia Madrid-D was not the best Candidate last cycle, even my Contacts in New Mexico agreed that was like watching a Train Wreck.
So far, the attractive Heinrich-D is outraising White-R.

Heirich Receipts:$1,245,432.00
White receipts:$953,207.00

(-8.50/-7.44) "Real Democrats don't make promises they can't keep." Dr. Howard Dean

---

by: Predictor @ Thu Jul 24, 2008 at 13:26:00 PM CDT

NJ-03 Adler-D

Agree with your reassessment here. The Gop's best hope was the County Freeholder from Ocean County who lost to the Mayor from Burlington County (Myers-R).
I commented about that here:

http://www.swingstateproject.c...


(-8.50/-7.44) "Real Democrats don't make promises they can't keep." Dr. Howard Dean

---

by: Predictor @ Thu Jul 24, 2008 at 13:38:15 PM CDT

Hey Predictor!

Glad to see you again -- it's been a while! Thanks for dropping in!

---

by: James L. @ Thu Jul 24, 2008 at 16:02:55 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Hey James, Thanks ;-)

It has been too long. I've been busy as a member of the Editorial Team at EENRBlog. we're concentrating on House & Senate Races with Endorsements & Act Blue Fundraising pasges for WA-08 Burner, NC-08 Kissell,
NC-09 Taylor, KY-01 Ryan, FL-07 Armitage, CA-04 Brown, IN-06 Welsh, DE-Al Northington and Jeff Merkley-D for OR-Sen.

Cheers!!

http://www.eenrblog.com/frontP...

(-8.50/-7.44) "Real Democrats don't make promises they can't keep." Dr. Howard Dean

---

by: Predictor @ Thu Jul 24, 2008 at 16:20:45 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Overview of 5 House Projections

DemConWatch has a nice seat-by-seat overview of the projections from 5 sources: Cook, CQ, Rothenberg, Crystal Ball, and, of course, SSP. The average gain over the 5 projections is a gain of 6.7 seats.

DemConWatch

---

by: msn1 @ Thu Jul 24, 2008 at 21:37:29 PM CDT