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AZ-08: Dueling Internals

by: James L.

Sun Jul 20, 2008 at 8:07 PM EDT

Hot on the heels of President Bush's $600,000 fundraiser for Tim Bee, we have two starkly different polls of freshman Democrat Gabrielle Giffords' first re-election campaign.

First, we have Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (6/18-22, likely voters, including leaners):

Gabrielle Giffords (D-inc): 59
Tim Bee (R): 35
(n=502)

Lots of good news for Giffords here, including a very high 92% name recognition and a 57% favorability rating. But is it too good to be true? Tim Bee's pollster thinks so.

Arizona Opinion for Tim Bee (5/15-23, likely voters):

Gabrielle Giffords (D-inc): 47
Tim Bee (R): 40
(MoE: ±4.4%)

Bee's poll is staler and from (as far as I know) a less reputable polling outfit than GQR. However, if we fall back on the clichéd but time-tested method of locating the truth somewhere in the middle of these two spreads, Giffords is starting off in a solid place against one of the GOP's few legitimately formidable recruits.

SSP currently rates this race as Leans Democratic.

James L. :: AZ-08: Dueling Internals

Tags: AZ-08, Polls, (All Tags)

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AZ-08: Dueling Internals | 6 comments

Truth is probably in between

Though probaby closer to Giffords poll than Bee's. I'm confident Giffords will win by double-digits. AZ-05 is a bit more worrisome, but I have little doubt Mitchell will win big as well.

by: ChadInFL @ Sun Jul 20, 2008 at 19:54:17 PM CDT

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Either way

We're in great shape.

How does Bee expect to win? He's down in his internal polls, will be outspent significantly and is running in a wave year for the opposite party. Barring a major scandal there is just no way he can win. He's not going to stop Giffords climb to possibly the presidency.

by: Populista @ Sun Jul 20, 2008 at 22:32:46 PM CDT

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Ya Giffords is probably destined for bigger things

I can absolutely see her as Governor or more likely a future Senator of Arizona.

Her husband has one hell of a resume too - NASA astronaut, Test pilot, career naval aviator with 39 Desert Storm combat missions. He definately needs to be pressed to get into politics when his NASA days are over.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M...

by: ChadInFL @ Sun Jul 20, 2008 at 22:43:45 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Attorney General Terry Goddard is the

favorite to hold the governorship for us in 2010 and I think Napolitano will run for McCain's seat in 2010. That leaves Kyl's seat in 2012. I think Kyl will be minority leader by then so that will be a tough race but I think Giffords has what it takes to win and I think she will win.

Then I think she will absolutely be on the shortlist of Democratic VP's in 2016, think about it. Swing state, Jewish, women, space vote, young, charismatic. I think she would make the perfect fit (it does depend on who the presidential nominee is though)

by: Populista @ Sun Jul 20, 2008 at 23:04:00 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

How to skew a poll

You take a slightly more Republican-demographics-leaning sample, and push the leaners less, and put Tim Bee before Gabrielle Giffords. Something like that.

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...

by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Sun Jul 20, 2008 at 23:34:12 PM CDT

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Bee's Poll

Seems to me that Bee's poll is good news--for Giffords. If the worst case scenario still gives her a solid lead, I'd say she's in good shape for November.

by: dsimon @ Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 14:43:52 PM CDT

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AZ-08: Dueling Internals | 6 comments