AK (Stevens) MN (Coleman) MS (Wicker) NC (Dole) OR (Smith)
KY (McConnell) ME (Collins)
Safe D:
VA (Open)
Races to Watch:
GA (Chambliss)
KS (Roberts)
NE (Open)
NJ (Lautenberg)
OK (Inhofe)
TX (Cornyn)
Today's Ratings Changes:
Virginia (Open): Likely Democratic to Safe Democratic
Under the rubric we use, if a race is in a "likely" category, that means "an upset cannot be completely ruled out." We no longer think an upset is imaginable in Virginia under any reasonably foreseeable circumstances. Mark Warner is still wildly popular while Jim Gilmore's name is mud. Warner has a 44-to-1 cash advantage while Gilmore barely eked out a win at a party convention his supporters had orchestrated to favor him. Obama now leads by three in a state that Kerry lost by more than eight. Oh, and Warner himself, who has never led by less than twenty, has now staked out a nearly thirty-point advantage.
Obviously in politics, anything is possible. A hidden scandal could always destroy a candidate at the last minute. But such unknowns can't factor into race ratings - if they did, no race could ever go into the "safe" category. What's more, Warner is a highly skilled politician who is adept at playing it safe; he is probably among the least likely to get ambushed by a late-breaking surprise. If he were to somehow lose at this point, it would be one of the biggest shockers in political history. But we feel quite confident that nothing like that is going to happen, and that Warner will cruise to victory.
New Mexico (Open): Lean Democratic to Likely Democratic
Democrats, already in the driver's seat here, got an added boost when winger Steve Pearce narrowly edged out "moderate" Heather Wilson for the GOP senate nomination. And the more New Mexico gets to know Steve Pearce, the less it seems they like him - Tom Udall is about thirty points ahead in the latest polling. And it's more than shown in fundraising, where Udall now has five times what Pearce has on hand. What's more, NRSC chief John Ensign all but admitted his commimttee was writing off this race. There's no question that Udall has a strong lead here now.
New Hampshire (Sununu): Tossup to Lean Democratic
Jeanne Shaheen has staked out a remarkably consistent ten-point lead in New Hampshire, leading many to ask if John Sununu is this cycle's Rick Santorum. We think it's certainly starting to look that way. No Republican, it appears, has ever come back from such a large deficit with this little time left on the clock. Sununu's biggest advantage right now is that he's the most endangered GOP incumbent, which means he's first on the NRSC's list of priorities. That's not a place any Republican really wants to be, but it means that Shaheen can't afford to let up, despite the advantages she now has.
Colorado (Open): Tossup to Lean Democratic
This race is not as clear-cut as, say, New Hampshire, but we no longer feel that it's a true tossup. It looks as though recent unrelenting attacks on Bob Schaffer have taken their toll, giving Mark Udall nine- and ten-point leads in four consecutive polls. Colorado, like Virginia, is another state that Kerry lost but where Obama shows a lot of promise. (And of course, we have our convention there.) However, Schaffer is pretty competitive in the cash department, and the NRSC hasn't yet bailed here. Nonetheless, it's hard to say that his chances of victory are equal to Udall's, hence our change.
Oregon (Smith): Likely Republican to Lean Republican
Jeff Merkley won a tough primary contest back in May and then went on to post far better fundraising numbers in the second quarter than he ever had before. His polling trend line looks good, and Obama has had consistent ten-point leads here. Gordon Smith's "moderate" image still holds a lot of power, though, and he's squeezing every advantage out of his incumbency. Merkley has a lot more work to do here, but this race is starting to get closer.
Georgia (Chambliss): Safe Republican to Races to Watch
If two things happen here, this race might go from snoozer to potentially, maybe, possibly interesting: First, Jim Martin needs to win the August 5th Democratic run-off and second, Barack Obama needs to follow through on his plan to register a half a million new black voters in Georgia. If, however, the Bush-loving walking train-wreck that is Vernon Jones is the Democratic nominee, then this will still be a race to watch - but for all the wrong reasons.
