Lunsford

Any idea if part of Lunsford's big total was from his own pocket?  That is great if he raised that much without spending his own cash thus far.

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by: ChadInFL @ Fri Jul 18, 2008 at 13:44:22 PM CDT

All I can tell you right now

is that there's an asterisk next to his name reading "Significant self-funding." I haven't seen a specific dollar amount to go with that.

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by: Crisitunity @ Fri Jul 18, 2008 at 13:56:59 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

2.5 million was from his own pocket

According to The Hill

Still, Lunsford has plenty of his own money to spend, and the overturn of the Millionaire's Amendment will help him in that regard.

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by: MichiganLiberal @ Fri Jul 18, 2008 at 14:24:16 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

$1,050,000 by April 10

Lunsford loaned his campaign $1,050,000 by April 10 according to his last FEC report.  It came in installments of $50,000; $470,000; and $530,000 from personal funds (the form actually abbreviated this as PERS FUNDS. (Capitalization Lunsford).  He had over two months to add to that and no millionaire's amendment in the way.

(It's pages 84,85, and 86 of his filing.  Fortunately, one can page forward after reading the title of the page.)

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by: David Kowalski @ Fri Jul 18, 2008 at 14:40:38 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Apparently only the House version of the

Millionaire's Amendment was scrapped, not the Senate one.

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by: wmlawman @ Fri Jul 18, 2008 at 15:03:57 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

I said it on Senateguru, and I'll say it again

Kleeb did very well. SHould the DSCC be looking to expand their map, looks like he is next in line for their help. Out-raised Johanns and only has a 1 : 2.7 cash disparity. He's in a good spot for being a moonshot race.

*Last DSCC e-mail I got said 11 races to watch with more to come, the may be looking to add a few more. If so, Kleeb just earned his spot.

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by: trowaman @ Fri Jul 18, 2008 at 14:29:50 PM CDT

Rasmussen ME-Sen - Collins by 7 still

http://www.rasmussenreports.co...

Poll result is the exact same as last month:

Collins (R)- 49
Allen (D)- 42

Also, Obama over McCain by 10 in Maine.

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by: ChadInFL @ Fri Jul 18, 2008 at 14:30:10 PM CDT

Good!

We're closing from previous months and Collins is under 50. Best part is it shows last month was not statistical noise.

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by: trowaman @ Fri Jul 18, 2008 at 14:33:39 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

And why do people freak out and say there is no way we can win that?

We have at least a good of a shot there as we do in Minnesota and Oregon if not better. We have a better candidate then Minnesota and are closer in the money game then Oregon.  

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by: Populista @ Fri Jul 18, 2008 at 18:13:50 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

I don't think people are saying we have no shot

It seems like most have this race pegged leans republican as I do.  It's an uphill battle, but very winnable.  In comparing it to Minnesota though I agree that we do have a better candidate in Allen.  The problem is that Collins is also popular, much more so than Coleman is in MN.  We've made headway into her approval ratings which once were well into the 70's, and now down to 65% in the latest Rasmussen poll.  If we can get Collins approval down to the mid to high 50's Allen will be in great shape.

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by: ChadInFL @ Fri Jul 18, 2008 at 18:42:34 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

CoH disparity

It's a shame that Noriega trails BIG JOHN by 10:1 in cash on hand, but then I look over at Virginia and feel better - Warner beating Gillmore by like 50:1. Methinks Warner will have plenty left over for his PAC to lend to Creigh Deeds or whoever our standard bearer is for VA-GOV 2009.

Visit Election Inspection for analysis, polls, and predictions!

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by: X Stryker @ Fri Jul 18, 2008 at 14:40:52 PM CDT

Typo

Udall is mistakenly listed as an "R".  

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by: sicembears @ Fri Jul 18, 2008 at 15:30:20 PM CDT

Thanks

Not intentional, I swear!

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by: Crisitunity @ Fri Jul 18, 2008 at 15:32:11 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

I'm curious about WY-Sen

The one with John Barrasso currently holding the seat.  Freudenthal is likely to make a run at this in four years, and it would help a lot if we could soften up Barrasso for him now.

Our guy, Nick Carter, raised $26,000 in the first quarter, but I don't see an update for Q2.  Any idea why that is?

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by: Nonpartisan @ Fri Jul 18, 2008 at 15:46:17 PM CDT

For Q2

Carter's receipts were $81,250. He has $81,808 cash on hand.

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by: Crisitunity @ Fri Jul 18, 2008 at 15:55:24 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

That's what I like to hear!

It's not Barrasso's $1.5 million, but he might be able to hold Barrasso under 60%, which would be a real achievement.

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by: Nonpartisan @ Fri Jul 18, 2008 at 18:06:12 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Merkley finally had a good quarter.

$1.9 million means he outraised Shaheen, Begich, Musgrove, Hagan, Allen, and even Mary friggin Landrieu.  Given that one of the conventional knocks against him (from Chris Cillizza) was that he couldn't raise money, that's good.

Unfortunately, he's still staring at a 9:1 deficit against Gordon Smith.

He's also moving himself into the right to benefit from DSCC expenditures though.  It's hard to argue that he should have been able to raise more, or that he should have been able to reach closer parity against a fundraiser like Smith.  If he's keeping up his end of the bargain (finally), then he can credibly ask the DSCC to keep theirs and spend for him.

And yeah, Kleeb had a good quarter too.

Musgrove really should have done better.  I realize Mississippi is not a rich state, but still.  I'm glad the DSCC is already playing here anyway.

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by: texas dem @ Fri Jul 18, 2008 at 16:25:19 PM CDT

As I said on Senate Guru. Two points

1. I'm with trowaman. Nebraska is clearly the 12th most competitive race now. We've known that VA, NM, NH, CO, AK, MS, OR, MN, ME, KY, and NC will be targeted and then there was OK, ID, GA, KS, NE and TX as the longer shots vying for a final spot. Kleeb outraised Johanns. None of the others where close. Rice is the only one who is closer to the incumbents CoH (32 vs 27 percent) and that's beacuse he started 7 months earlier (and also didn't have a primary against a self funding multi-millionaire).

Scott Kleeb is the strongest of the more long shots and if the DSCC gets into this race we can win it.

2. Speaking of that. Mark Pryor, Dick Durbin, Joe Biden, Tom Harkin, John Kerry, Carl Levin, Max Baucus, Jack Reed, and Jay Rockerfeller all face little or no opposition this fall. I would hope all of them would like a Senate majority that agreed with them. Well they are sitting on $43,816,895 and growing. That's more that the DSCC's current CoH.

Add in the fact that Chuck Schumber and Evan Bayh both have over 10 million in their 2010 bank accounts.

Chuck needs to push hard and get 50 million dollars of that. Imagine that. We could be up on the air in ALL the long shots and the more likely shots RIGHT now.

60 seat majority? Forget about it. How about a 70 seat majority?

Seriously. Those 12 Senators hold the future of America in their election bank accounts. Weather or not they pony up will be a true test of their values.

The most important netroots campaign of 2008 will be Use it or Loose it 2008.

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by: Populista @ Fri Jul 18, 2008 at 18:11:46 PM CDT

What would we need to get a 70-seat majority?

or slightly less impractically, a veto-proof 67-seat majority?

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...

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by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Fri Jul 18, 2008 at 22:20:38 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Well

counting Corporate Joe we would need the common 10. Plus:

Kentucky, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Georgia and Idaho would be whats needed for a 67 seat majority. That's about as much is as really at all possible. But if we picked up TN, WY and AL (totally not happening) then we would pick up a 70 seat majority.

If Obama manages to pull off a very strong 2 years and our cards play right that might be very possible for 2010 though.

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by: Populista @ Fri Jul 18, 2008 at 22:43:13 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

We won't need to worry about vetos

Why would President Obama veto our own legislation?

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by: ChadInFL @ Sat Jul 19, 2008 at 01:09:05 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Actually

We don't know what Slattery's got, and I'm guessing it'll be better than either Rice or Kleeb.  I also think Slattery's got a better chance than Kleeb does.

BTW, great point about Use it or Lose it.

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by: Nonpartisan @ Fri Jul 18, 2008 at 22:22:17 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

the blogs

need to start a campaign for this.  We did it against DWS, and against retro-active immunity.  And this campaign would take on more of a positive note instead of us rightfully complaining against our own party leaders.

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by: Andrew @ Sat Jul 19, 2008 at 20:39:37 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

It's coming

But keep a few things in mind. The top Senate races are all likely to end up presidential swing states- Virginia, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Colorado. So all the extra millions in blowout races can still be used for a ground game that turns folks out for Obama and thus it'll be more of a challenge (though of course not impossible) to pry money away to the less likely races.

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by: Lucas O'Connor @ Sun Jul 20, 2008 at 18:48:04 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Use it or lose it

Not sure if I understood you correctly, but I don't think VA, NH, NM, and CO qualify for use-it-or-lose-it status.  It's the 2008 incumbents who have no serious opposition who really need to pony up the money, not the challengers who are looking likely to win.

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by: sicembears @ Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 15:19:02 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Good points, but the one

thing you ignore in comparing NE and OK. Rice is going up against an unpopular incumbent and Kleeb is going up against a popular, former Governor. This is an anti-incumbent election year, and I'll give the edge to Rice because if his race closes, there will be oodles of cash coming to Oklahoma given that Inhofe is one of the most hated-Repubs in the country, Johanns is not.

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by: blueokie08 @ Sun Jul 20, 2008 at 20:28:41 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Question: NH-Sen

Shaheen's COH:  You say it is just over 2 million.  

http://www.fec.gov/DisclosureS...  FEC says she has over 4 million.  

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by: JeremiahTheMessiah @ Sat Jul 19, 2008 at 08:01:17 AM CDT

Bah. I posted too soon.

Same goes for MS-Sen B.  Musgrove's numbers don't jive with the document either.  http://www.fec.gov/DisclosureS...

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by: JeremiahTheMessiah @ Sat Jul 19, 2008 at 08:09:12 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Hmmm

That's odd. National Journal released a sneak preview of the numbers on Thursday, which is what I was working off of. Maybe the FEC made some revisions since then? Anyway, James knows the FEC database better than any of us, so he can probably clear up any confusion tomorrow.

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by: Crisitunity @ Sat Jul 19, 2008 at 15:53:55 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

I checked Musgrove and Shaheen's reports...

They matched the national journal instead of what the FEC posted.  

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by: JeremiahTheMessiah @ Sat Jul 19, 2008 at 20:10:46 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

By the way

it's Stevan Pearce.  But everyone just calls him Steve.  

New Mexico politics from the local perspective.

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by: fbihop @ Sat Jul 19, 2008 at 11:36:58 AM CDT

Gotta plug for Rice here

Inhofe has got the 2nd worst COH of Repub incumbents (behind Stevens, who is getting indicted and therefore abandoned by donors). He is not a good fundraiser. Rice has 750K in the bank.

Rice is supposedly going up on TV tomorrow. His name ID problem will be resolved and if his numbers close, this race will be a dogfight.

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by: blueokie08 @ Sun Jul 20, 2008 at 20:34:12 PM CDT