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MN-Sen: Ventura Won't Run

by: James L.

Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 9:15 PM EDT

Jesse Ventura just told Larry King that he won't run for Senate. Phew.

Rasmussen (7/10, likely voters, 6/11 in parens) has released another poll of the race today:

Al Franken (D): 44 (45)
Norm Coleman (R-inc): 42 (48)
(MoE: ±4.5%)

Here's what a three-way match-up would've looked like:

Al Franken (D): 34 (32)
Norm Coleman (R-inc): 36 (39)
Jesse Ventura (I): 22 (24)

Encouraging news for Franken, but it should be noted that Rasmussen has tended to be more favorable to Franken than some other pollsters like SUSA and Quinnipiac.

UPDATE: And on cue, SurveyUSA brings a very different look at the race (7/11-13, likely voters, 6/10-12 in parens):

Al Franken (D): 39 (40)
Norm Coleman (R-inc): 52 (52)
Undecided: 8
(MoE: ±3.9%)

Bizarrely, SUSA shows that Coleman's strongest voting bloc is the 18-34 demographic, who give him an implausibly high 58-31 lead. I find it difficult to believe that younger voters are Franken's weakest link, so it's hard for me to fully buy this poll and others like it from SUSA showing the same pattern.

James L. :: MN-Sen: Ventura Won't Run

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MN-Sen: Ventura Won't Run | 35 comments

Thank God

Now let's get back to business.

God Ventura is a huge tool, just wanted to sell more books.

by: Andrew @ Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 20:19:03 PM CDT

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Indeed

He would have totally screwed Franken if he ran, thank god he decided not to.

by: Conniver @ Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 22:06:00 PM CDT

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What a asshole

But you have to admit the guy is great at getting publicity. First he isn't, then it seems so likely that he is. And now out again.

by: Populista @ Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 20:23:53 PM CDT

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Yay!

This is good news. I hope Franken can take advantage of this and raise his poll numbers.

by: wmlawman @ Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 20:26:53 PM CDT

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And two polls were released tonight.

One has Franken up 2%, the other has Coleman leading by 13%. Details here.

by: LeftistAddiction @ Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 20:36:35 PM CDT

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I knew it

The whole thing just stank of "Get me on the air so I can flog my book."

by: Crisitunity @ Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 20:48:37 PM CDT

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A new SurveyUSA poll

http://kstp.com/kstpImages/Sen...

Coleman 52 - Franken 39

I like the Rasmussan poll better :(

by: MinnesotaMike @ Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 20:53:57 PM CDT

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Thank Goodness!

I knew Ventura was just being a big ol' publicity whore. There's no way he would have been able to win this seat, but I'd imagine he would have been able to siphon enough votes from independents/libertarians/marginal DFL voters to propel Coleman to a win. I think this will ultimately be a very competitive race due in no small part to Franken's prodigious fundraising and the likelihood of a big Obama win in Minnesota.

by: NCDem @ Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 21:01:30 PM CDT

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James points out the huge flaw

SurveyUSA is polling the 18-34 year old age group entirely too Republican. There last Presidential poll in the state only showed Obama up by 1% and had both candidates TIED with this age group. Impossible. Rasmussen has consistently shown margins for the presidential race around 15% which I believe is much more accurate than a 1% lead.

There is simply now way this age bracket is voting that Republican, no freakin way.

by: Andrew @ Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 21:02:57 PM CDT

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ack

I meant their, not there. Embarrassing....

by: Andrew @ Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 21:04:57 PM CDT

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I agree the 18-34 numbers are flawed but....

... I wonder how well known Franken really is amoung this demographic? As a 40 something I remember the Al Franken Decade but unless you are really into politics he has kind of slipped off the pop culture radar.

Still any Dem would be winning 18-34 year olds so there is certainly a flaw in this poll.

by: MinnesotaMike @ Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 21:19:44 PM CDT

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Well

Franken has very impressive student outreach and a lot of young people on his campaign so I would think that he would do very well among youth. It's just not going to be that close.

by: Populista @ Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 21:24:12 PM CDT

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I dunno what to make of the polls on this race

SUSA always has us down 0 and Rasmussen a dead heat. Usually I'm inclined to believe SUSA over Rasmussen, but I just don't see us down anywhere near 10+ points.

by: ChadInFL @ Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 21:15:36 PM CDT

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SUSA seems off in Minnesota

Their Prez polls show a much closer race than anyone else does:
http://www.pollster.com/08-MN-...

I don't think that Franken is leading, but I think something is rotten with SUSA's methodology in Minnesota.

by: James L. @ Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 21:17:48 PM CDT

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SYSA's crosstabs have been bizarre on MN

A poll not long ago had Coleman winning 99% of the republican vote. That's just plain absurd. Many republican base voters don't even like the guy since he's moved to the middle in order to get re-elected. Coleman may not get 90% of repub votes.

by: ChadInFL @ Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 21:24:11 PM CDT

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I think Rass's methodology

is too favorable to us and SUSA's is too favorable to the Republicans.

I think the truth is somewhere in between. If the election was held today I think Norm would get re-elected 52.5-47.5 or so. Thankfully the election is a long way off and the DSCC has enough money to shatter Norm's moderate image and I think we can win this one.

by: Populista @ Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 21:23:10 PM CDT

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I'd agree with that

My gut tells me that if the election were today it would be something like 52-48 Coleman, not counting 3rd party effects since I don't know who else is running. I'm confident that this race won't be decided by more than a 3 or 4 point margin either way in the end.

by: ChadInFL @ Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 21:25:51 PM CDT

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I believe MN has same-day voter registration

That is something favorable for progressives and I believe it was a big reason for Ventura's upset win in 1998.

by: ChadInFL @ Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 21:27:11 PM CDT

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Ventura Realized

That 2008 is not like 10 years ago, when he actually beat Coleman and some DFLer in a three way race to become the governor of Minnesota. My theory is his outsider status was way too much for Minnesotans to swallow considering he lived out of state for most of the year. Al Franken actually has been living in the state since early 2007 and had before helped raised money through his Midwest Values PAC for MN candidates in 2006, so people know him.

That kind of outsider status is what people are looking for against an established Washington insider such as Coleman.

by: Don't Tase Me, Bro! @ Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 21:49:14 PM CDT

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Not sure how I feel...

....I haven't been comfortable with this race at all and Ventura getting in could shake things up. And this race could use a good shake up.

That said Ventura has been trending leftward the last few years and has generally been supportive of Democratic policies and could end up hurting us more than the Repubs.

by: Taget @ Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 22:31:10 PM CDT

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Off topic

NE SEN
Kleeb: $698,000 with $450,000 CoS
Johanns: $682,000 with $1.2 mil CoS

My site: Political Realm

by: PoliticalRealm @ Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 23:03:31 PM CDT

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Source

http://www.omaha.com/index.php...

My site: Political Realm

by: PoliticalRealm @ Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 23:03:49 PM CDT

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More numbers

NJ SEN
Dick Zimmer: $273,000 with $411,000 on hand

source: http://www.politickernj.com/ma...

My site: Political Realm

by: PoliticalRealm @ Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 23:49:35 PM CDT

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that's

just absolutely amazing. This is certainly going to be a wave election. I want to see Idaho and Oklahoma numbers. If we outraise the Republicans in those seats (highly unlikely in OK) then we could be in great shape to making these seats at least somewhat competitive.

by: Andrew @ Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 11:24:43 AM CDT

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odd internals in the SUSA poll

33D-32R-21I---where's the other 14%?
Only 13% Liberal?--which ties the 13% who declined to state
an ideology.

And Coleman leading among the 18-34 demographic?

So I think it's a five point race right now, which may not be all that bad considering the scandals that have weakened Franken.

by: mikeel @ Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 23:11:00 PM CDT

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Yeah

No way that the registration gap in Minnesota is a mere 33-32 right now. Indies are higher, Dems are higher, Reps are lower. Liberal identification should be at least 20%, if not 23 or 24%.

by: KainIIIC @ Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 23:52:57 PM CDT

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Tight race...

Al Franken's going to need a bigger lead than 2% if he wants to win. Coleman will get a small boost from the GOP convention, and I doubt Obama will be doing a lot of campaigning in Minnesota this year. I doubt he will need to do a lot of campaigning in Minnesota this year.

by: C.S.Strowbridge @ Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 08:37:57 AM CDT

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On the flip...

..it helps Franken if Obama wins big because of coattails and straight-ticket Democratic voters.

by: conspiracy @ Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 09:27:21 AM CDT

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I believe the opposite

Everyone has always said the GOP convention will come and boost Coleman a little bit. Well, why? No way is bringing all of the Republicans we in MN hate, especially Bush whose approval rating is probably only 20% in the state, is going to boost Coleman. I think the convention will only hurt every Republican in the state because it reminds us of whose been in charge all of these years and who is to blame.

Although, we are grateful for the economic boost. On a side note, the Republicans have reserved this one resturaunt for the entire week right across the street from one of the most popular gay bars in the Twin Cities so I'll certainly get trashed and heckle them from the smoking area :) I'll do it for all of us.

by: Andrew @ Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 11:22:10 AM CDT

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Absolutely agree

I don't buy MN repubs getting a bounce because the convention is there. It's going to be an asbolute circus, with likely negative speeches. If anything it should hurt Coleman who has done his best to pretend not to be a republican lately.

by: ChadInFL @ Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 11:59:19 AM CDT

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Dean Barkley is in though

http://www.minnpost.com/storie...

By Doug Grow
Monday, July 14, 2008
Jesse Ventura may be out of the picture, but the Independence Party still could be a factor in the U.S. Senate race in Minnesota.
Dean Barkley, who was appointed by Gov. Ventura to fill out Paul Wellstone's term in the Senate after Wellstone died in a plane crash in 2002, told MinnPost Monday night that he will file Tuesday to run for Senate in the Independence Party primary.

by: MinnesotaMike @ Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 10:23:06 AM CDT

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5% in '94 versus Grams, 8% in a poll from last month

He'll do well to match that I imagine. Question is will that still be enough to change the outcome?

by: conspiracy @ Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 10:54:40 AM CDT

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I think he could