Good start

Key omissions for me outside of NY and NJ are:

IL-11
AL-2
IL-10
WA-4
LA-4
WY-AL
OH-2
MO-6

Looks like they feel secure about Halvorson. Dan Seals is a money machine so might not need the help. Obama homestate coattails also maybe a factor there. No Darcy Burner? Surprised at that.

No Chris Carney in PA-10? The rest I can understand but don't see Hill, Mitchell, Kagen, Yarmuth, Altmire or Ciro losing. Hardest defense will be Lampson, Mahoney, Boyda and Cazayoux.

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by: conspiracy @ Fri Jul 11, 2008 at 10:14:48 AM CDT

Second time I've done that

WA-8

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by: conspiracy @ Fri Jul 11, 2008 at 10:16:06 AM CDT

Hastings

Well, WA-4 is held by the Republicans.  Maybe you have an itch to take down Doc Hastings?

It is being reported in the politicker sites that the the Building Industry Association of Washington is running billboards in rural industries which say, "Don't let Seattle steal this again."  The boards are not affiliated with Rossi but use the same style.  Rossi's going full scale Nixon on us.  Paranoia and more.  Lest anyone forget, the Secretary of State during the recount was Sam Reed, a Republican.

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by: David Kowalski @ Fri Jul 11, 2008 at 11:06:37 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Wonder how AK-AL money is best spent

It may help if we ran some pro anti-Parnell or pro-Don Young ads.  I know sounds goofy, but we need Young to win that primary BADLY.

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by: ChadInFL @ Fri Jul 11, 2008 at 10:45:24 AM CDT

The time is for Sept./Oct.

The primary will be over by then (I think).

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by: wmlawman @ Fri Jul 11, 2008 at 10:53:32 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

I think the DCCC made a mistake in AZ

I think the closest race in AZ right now is Lord vs. Shadegg in CD-03.  If there's any race the DCCC might want to pump additional cash into, that should be it.  On the other hand, Kirkpatrick in CD-01 can take care of herself against a very right-wing opponent.  And I don't think Harry Mitchell's in much danger, though if he ends up with Susan Bitter Smith as his opponent he's going to need all the money he can get.

On the other hand, the D-trip was right to pass on CD-08, where Gabby Giffords is going to wallop Tim Bee.

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by: Nonpartisan @ Fri Jul 11, 2008 at 11:04:47 AM CDT

playing it smart

as of right nowm I have to agree with the DCCC that Mitchell is slightly vulnerable and that Kirkpatrick may need the help in this slightly Republican district.  

As the post says, the DCCC is free the revise this stuff at any point.  Also, this will not be the only ad buy they make.  Bob Lord, who is one of my top tier races, will definetly get some ad time from the DCCC, the question is how much and the DCCC may be waiting a little bit to see what that answer turns out to be.  

Check out http://electioninspection.word... for the latest news, election results, poll analysis, and predictions

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by: skywrnchsr509 @ Fri Jul 11, 2008 at 11:21:11 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Seems like a awfully conservative buy

WI-08, TX-23, Or-05, KY-03, IN-09, PA-04 and KS-02 probably don't need that help holding. VA-11, OH-16 and AZ-01 don't need that help to become takeovers. Take those off and add

AL-2
IL-10
WA-8
LA-4
WY-AL
OH-2
MO-6
ID-01
WV-02
CA-04
FL-25
AZ-03
FL-21
VA-02
NY-29

Also I have heard that the DCCC only reserved 250k for MN-03. If that's true I wonder who's getting the big bucks?

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by: Populista @ Fri Jul 11, 2008 at 11:40:29 AM CDT

I've updated the post

with the size of the blocks that the DCCC has reserved. Looks like MN-03 is getting a lot more than just 250k.

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by: James L. @ Fri Jul 11, 2008 at 11:42:17 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Thanks.

Very interesting chart. Let's hope the DCCC doesn't follow through with that much on a bunch of those. In terms in defense OR-05 probably doesn't need any help but cut it in half at least, AZ-05 could at least drop down a half a million or so, same with KS-02 and IN-09. That gives you a extra million. Put one million of it into Lampson's district (Who IMO is the only one in serious danger) and one million into challengers.

In terms of challengers I would also cut funding entirely from the super safe districts of AZ-01, VA-11, OH-16 and NY-13. That gives you a extra 5.6 million. Cut a extra 400k off NJ-07 and you've got 7 million extra to put into increasing the ad buys in CT-04 and CO-04 and putting money into the districts I listed above (specifically WA-08).

Also MO-09 is the big (pleasant) surprise. I guess it isn't on Red to Blue beacuse the candidate hasn't been decided but Judy Baker looks likely to win and I'd love to pick that seat up. It does seem funny that they get the money over MO-06 though.

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by: Populista @ Fri Jul 11, 2008 at 12:00:17 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

No cuts to KS-2

We need to defend both Nancy Boyda's seat this election, but also her future position as a Senate/Gov candidate.

She's incredibly progressive in the type of district that is typically represented by a conservative Republican or a Blue Dog.

The fact she won this district without much money in 2006 shows she has a great deal of political talent, even if she isn't great at fund-raising.

She would be great for Brownback's seat in 2010 when he retires. I don't want there to be any chance she loses this year.

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by: MrSmith @ Fri Jul 11, 2008 at 13:26:19 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Huh? Boyda great for Senate?

Not if you want to win.  She'll draw 42% of the vote tops statewide.  No way we'd get someone that progressive statewide in KS.

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by: ChadInFL @ Fri Jul 11, 2008 at 13:35:49 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Well

my impression is that the bloody Republican primary and her popularity will hold this seat. But I guess her holding it big would help for a statewide run.

And also how is she "too liberal" to win statewide? She's no more liberal then Sebelius and Sebelius would be easily favored to win statewide if she ran.

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by: Populista @ Fri Jul 11, 2008 at 13:45:08 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

KS-2 polls

weren't that poll numbers that showed Boyda up by like 20-30% or something?

I certainly agree, it is certainly in the top 4 or 5 seats they could take back and we will need to spend some money here.

Also, didnt Boyda say she didnt any money spent on her race by the DCCC?

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by: Andrew @ Fri Jul 11, 2008 at 15:37:57 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

17 points over Ryun

Boyda's last internal poll in May had her up 54-37 over Ryun, her likely GOP opponent.  And 30 points ahead of the less likely GOP primary winner Jenkins.

That 17 points sounds a bit inflated, but I think she's in good shape.  Boyda was one of the 2006 upset winners that a lot of people thought was a sure one-term rep.  She's turned out to be a far better rep than I expected.

Another interesting fact about Boyda: she is the Phelps klan's elected representative to congress.  Yes, THAT Phelps group.

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by: ChadInFL @ Fri Jul 11, 2008 at 20:28:26 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

AZ-05

has to do with who Mitchell's opponent ends up being.  If Susan Bitter Smith is the GOP nominee (I'd rate that about a 30% chance at the moment), she'll spend a buttload of money, and Mitchell will need some extra cash to stay afloat.  I do agree with you that AZ-01 doesn't need money at all, and that IN-09 needs less money.

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by: Nonpartisan @ Fri Jul 11, 2008 at 15:30:17 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Well Schweikert is way ahead in AZ-05 fundraising

And he's backed by the Club for Growth.  I'd assume he's favored to win the GOP bod.

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by: ChadInFL @ Fri Jul 11, 2008 at 20:30:38 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Jesus Christ

I'm not watching tv from September on....  Especially adding in MN-2, MN-6 that should be able to air some ads plus all the Coleman and Franken ads.  God bless DVR.

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by: Andrew @ Fri Jul 11, 2008 at 12:02:45 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

That's why I don't have a TV

Not worth it :)

Let's hope we get some of that time transfered to MN-02 or MN-06 if MN-03 starts looking safe.

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by: Populista @ Fri Jul 11, 2008 at 12:06:58 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

At least

there wont really be any presidential ads.

This race probably wont look safe until the money is spent.  What is going to make MN-3 a safe pick-up is letting everyone know that Paulsen would be a Bush-rubber stamp and that Madia is part of the change that needs to happen.  I cant wait for the debates, that is where Paulsen is going to get his ass kicked.

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by: Andrew @ Fri Jul 11, 2008 at 12:12:20 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

You read my mind better than that first commenter

What about all the Illinois races (IL-08, 10, 11, 18) and the California races (CA-04, 26, 46), and both WY-AL and ID-01?  That's what I was thinking.  And many more.

But yeah, I think our sentiment could be summarized as "why is it so defensive?".  But psychological warfare does make sense as an explanation.

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...

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by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Fri Jul 11, 2008 at 14:05:43 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

So can we safely assume that this confirms what we already knew?

Adler and Maffei are shoe-ins?

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by: conspiracy @ Fri Jul 11, 2008 at 11:47:55 AM CDT

Like all of you

I'm pretty surprised there is so much defense.  If I remember correctly, didnt the DCCC tell everyone to raise money like their lives depended on it because this cycle is all about offense?  Especially considering the NRCC wont be spending money in pretty much any of these seats since they have a responsbility to defend their incumbents first.

I bet the only seats the NRCC will be spending money in are FL-16, KS-2, KY-3 (maybe), LA-6, NH-1 (maybe), PA-10 and TX-22.  And even there, I think those are all going to go our way convincingly except for TX-22, which I expect us to lose.  

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by: Andrew @ Fri Jul 11, 2008 at 12:07:41 PM CDT

Psychological warfare

That's my guess anyway.  The DCCC wants to psyche the NRCC out so they don't even bother playing in those seats.  For example, the Reps might be tempted to play in AZ-05, where McCain will likely do well.  The DCCC's huge ad buy there probably means that the NRCC would be forced to match it (or at least come close) in order to have a chance there, and they'll likely shy away from making that kind of investment when they have so little money and so many seats to defend.  If the DCCC wasn't playing there, the NRCC might try a smaller ad buy, forcing the DCCC to actually spend the money there.  It's probably cheaper to bully the NRCC out of these districts, and then not running the ads after all, than not threatening the money bombs, having the NRCC come in and being forced to spend money there after all.  In any case, I expect most of the money reserved for defense will be moved to other targets later.

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by: WestCoastMC @ Fri Jul 11, 2008 at 13:27:25 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

There is very little point to trying to hold TX-22

It is so gerrymandered that it can only be held in a wave year, and even then only with some luck and a lot of money.

Even if somehow it is held in 2008, then there will 2010, and it will be redistricted out of existence in 2012.  

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by: MrSmith @ Fri Jul 11, 2008 at 13:31:59 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

I think we would have held TX-22 this year...

If Sekula-Gibbs was the repub nominee.  But we aren't likely to beat a sane republican like Olson.  I see Lampson losing somewhere along the lines of 54-46%.  But you never jnow, he's a good fundraiser and could pull a surprise.

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by: ChadInFL @ Fri Jul 11, 2008 at 13:38:19 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Remember that in the long-term

TX-22 will become a Democratic district. It's gained a lot of population, a lot of it black and hispanic, since 2000, the "Bush effect" will drop several Republican points from the score, and as exurbia moves further from the boundaries of the district, and suburbia closer, that only seeks to help out Democrats. In '08, Harris County is having a huge organizational effort to flip all county-wide positions, which seeks to help out in this portion of the district, while Galveston County Democrats are notorious for being the most organized in the state after Travis County dems. Plus, Lampson has already locked up the support of the crucial Space Industry, located in Brazoria county, currently the most unfavorable section of the district.

It's going to be tough, especially in '08 and '10, but in the long-term, this area WILL become Democratic-leaning. and it IS possible to hold this seat.

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by: KainIIIC @ Fri Jul 11, 2008 at 14:55:53 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Correction Sir

As a TX-22 resident whose father works in the Space industry ("Space Advocate for Lampson" bumper stickers cover his car) I would like to point out that the Space Industry is in the Harris County portion of the district. There is very little Brazoria in the district.

As for the Harris county portion, Lampson may get buoyed a bit this year by other strong campaign challenges including TX-Sen 11 (Joe Jaworski (D) vs Mike Jackson (R)) and HD-129 (Sherrie Matula (D) vs. John Davis (R)).

Remember this is is Harris county where the coordinated campaign is in full force as well for the county seats.

We'll see on Nov. 4th who we got, hopefully a full sweep.

*Disclaimer, I work for Mrs. Matula in her State Rep. race.

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by: trowaman @ Fri Jul 11, 2008 at 23:30:14 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Ah, my mistake

For some reason I thought League City was in Brazoria, not Galveston county. Pearland is here instead, which will be be a tough sell for a Democrat. In any event, Harris county is where Lampson's biggest improvement vis-a-vis 2006 needs to be, as he'll probably lose Fort Bend due to facing the mayor of Sugarland.

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by: KainIIIC @ Sat Jul 12, 2008 at 00:28:43 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Wait, What?

NASA is in Clear Lake.  League City is in Galveston County (League City is in the district, however).

He's not facing the mayor of Sugarland, though. While the Sugarland mayor was the Republican's first choice to run against Lampson, he never entered. Pete Olson (the Republican) is Cornyn's Fmr. Chief of Staff. I think he worked for Phil Gramm before that. This should tell you what kind of Republican he will turn out to be.

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by: trowaman @ Sat Jul 12, 2008 at 00:50:36 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

damn

I'm really behind the curve here... Oh well, I don't go over to that part of houston much anyways (i'm Northwest).

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by: KainIIIC @ Sat Jul 12, 2008 at 23:50:51 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

OR-5

No shock here.  Even though Erickson is badly wounded, this district is close enough and he can self-finance to a large enough extent that they need to cut him off.

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by: skywaker9 @ Fri Jul 11, 2008 at 12:47:15 PM CDT

No MS-01?

After seeing the DCCC make such a huge investment (and seeing a return) in getting Travis Childers into Roger Wicker's old seat in the special election, I'm sort of shocked to see that they haven't made retaining that seat in the general a priority.

The Thorn Papers
Y'all come by now.

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by: mitch2k2 @ Fri Jul 11, 2008 at 14:54:46 PM CDT

They probably don't see him as all that vulnerable

And neither do I really.  Unlike IL-14 and LA-06 the republicans had a good candidate running in the MS-01 special and he still lost big.  I guess there's no reason to think the same thing won't happen in November.  I'd drop some money for Childers if I were the DCCC, but I don't think much is necessary.  I have a feeling he'll be like Gene Taylor, a conservative dem in a solidly red district who almost always wins easily.

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by: ChadInFL @ Fri Jul 11, 2008 at 15:16:57 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Rep Baker

Baker is a big reason why the DCCC is going to drop money in this race.  Before Hulshof retired she was going to be the first well-funded challenger with a base of support that he had seen since he won in 1996.  After he retired she ramped up operations and is still out-performing her primary opponents in fundraising and getting out in front of issues.

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by: glennrehn @ Fri Jul 11, 2008 at 15:46:11 PM CDT

Agreed. Judy Baker is an impressive candidate

When she went in to take on a multi-term incumbent she raised more in a month than other candidates in previous elections had raised in their entire campaigns.

She has been an awesome state rep and she'll be an even better congresswoman!

http://judybakerforcongress.com/

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by: Wayne in Missouri @ Sat Jul 12, 2008 at 00:15:15 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

What do you guys think of Steve Gaw?

I like Judy Baker but I also don't dislike Steve Gaw, from what I've seen of him. I know you guys are big Baker fans, so I know who your first choice is, but how do you feel about Gaw?

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by: James L. @ Sat Jul 12, 2008 at 00:24:57 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Where's WA-08?

The DCCC better have a plan to spend money on Darcy Burner's campaign. Living in Seattle I know that beating Reichert and bringing a Democrat to the Eastside is very doable. We just need a little push.

And since her house burned down last week, it would have been nice to show that the DCCC is on board. Plus, Seattle is an expensive media market so it would be good to book the discounts now. Every cent is going to count in this race.

http://www.darcyburner.com/

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by: e_koszyk @ Fri Jul 11, 2008 at 16:45:02 PM CDT

Obviously this isn't a full list.

They have 50+ million COH and this is only 31+ million.  

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by: JeremiahTheMessiah @ Fri Jul 11, 2008 at 16:57:57 PM CDT

Plans change

Races emerge and submerge and winds will change.  The DCCC isn't going to announce their full spending plans in July not only because it would tip off the GOP, but because in many cases, they're making this up as they go.

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by: James L. @ Fri Jul 11, 2008 at 17:01:39 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

When the map is as wide as this is

You have to pick your targets when it makes most sense.

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by: skywaker9 @ Fri Jul 11, 2008 at 23:17:50 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

I think another thing to point out, is they put big money on

races with self-funding Republicans.  Sodrel - Fimian To help scare them away from spending money.  

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by: JeremiahTheMessiah @ Sat Jul 12, 2008 at 00:34:29 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

More:

Valeche (fl-16) - Tinsley (nm-02) - Erickson (or-05)

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by: JeremiahTheMessiah @ Sat Jul 12, 2008 at 04:55:02 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

MO-09

It's great to see Missouri 09 on there!

For years we have been ignored by the DCCC, but Judy Baker is really bringing it this year and we're going to turn MO-09 from red to blue!

http://judybakerforcongress.com/

http://www.actblue.com/page/wa...

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by: Wayne in Missouri @ Sat Jul 12, 2008 at 00:11:22 AM CDT

So I guess we shoudl expect another round of ROMP

From the republicans.  I guess they'll announce another dozen or so republican seats to defend which should allow them to regain their majority.  Amazing since I never knew defending your own seats makes a party able to regain majorities.

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by: ChadInFL @ Sat Jul 12, 2008 at 13:32:22 PM CDT