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LA-01: Self-funding Democrat Steps Up to Challenge Scalise

by: James L.

Mon Jul 07, 2008 at 9:42 PM EDT


Newly-elected GOP Rep. Steve Scalise won't get a free pass this fall:

"Pro-life, pro-gun, fiscally conservative" Democrat Jim Harlan announced his candidacy for Congress on YouTube on Independence Day, bringing a self-funding challenger to recently elected Republican Rep. Steve Scalise this fall.

Harlan, who was a registered independent until February, attended the Democratic Convention earlier this year for the district's special election in March and decided to get involved.

"He didn't think [Scalise] would do a good job in Congress, and decided he might as well do it by himself," campaign manager Joel Coon said. "The more he saw of the [campaign] process, the more he thought about it."

Harlan, a moneyed businessman, is bringing an eyebrow-raising amount of his own resources to the race:

Harlan made his money, according to Coon, building up factories across the country and internationally for a wide variety of technologies and businesses. He will report more than $500,000 to the Federal Elections Commission later this month, which is more than what incumbent Scalise reported in the first quarter.

The $500,000 is mostly Harlan's personal wealth, Coon said, "but he hasn't begun to raise the money he can."

Louisiana's 1st CD is one of the most Republican districts in the nation. With a PVI of R+18.5, it supported Bush by a 71-28 margin in 2004 and Scalise crushed Democrat Gilda Reed by 75-22.5 in the May 3rd special election to fill the open seat. While it goes without saying that Harlan would be an extreme long shot, his candidacy will at least keep Scalise's money in the 1st District and out of the NRCC's coffers.

This is pretty remarkable. Despite many prognosticators writing the obituary for the Louisiana Democratic Party after Hurricane Katrina wrought major damage on New Orleans in 2005, Democrats now have three of state's seven House seats, a top-tier challenger in the 4th District, a potentially serious challenge in the 7th District, and still might score a good challenger in the 5th District. With Jim Harlan running against Scalise, Democrats are making a fight of it in every corner of Louisiana this year.

On the web:
Jim Harlan for Congress

James L. :: LA-01: Self-funding Democrat Steps Up to Challenge Scalise
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Still hard to see this one coming through
but you're right, at least maybe Scalise will have to work a little bit.  Is there any CD in the nation with a PVI that Republican that is held by a Dem?  I think even Gene Taylor's seat is a little friendlier than this one.

This would be the reddest
Chet Edwards' is the closest, at R+17.7. Matheson is at R+16.9 and Taylor is next at R+16.3.

Those are three very skilled pols right there.


[ Parent ]
Those PVI's should drop after 2008
For Edwards and Matheson at least.  Edwards represents the Bush country part of Texas, so obviously without Bush on the ballot it's not THAT insanely republican.  Matheson's district PVI should drop too considering Obama is polling decent in UT for a democrat.

[ Parent ]
I agree
This seat went 75% GOP the same night as Don Cazayoux picked off LA-06, which was red for 30 years.

I don't see this changing hands. Best thing to hope for is to keep Scalise around 60-65%


[ Parent ]
Also
Anything Harlan can do to help Landrieu shave off a few votes in this district is a plus.

[ Parent ]
competitive rep
elections in the fourth fifth, seventh, first and second could really help draw more voters to the poll, especially in the first. With Obama on the ticket she could also draw a lot of new black voters, and a lot of new young voters who haven't voted beofre, though from personal experience Louisiana's youngest voters, at least the ones that vote or have a clue what's going on, tend to be batshit conservative, outnumbering moderates and sane people 10:1, if not more. Most don't have a fucking clue. She can still win, narrowly, I think.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

[ Parent ]
Very, VERY good point
Its is a fact that if elections are competitive, more people come out to vote. And it is fact, that higher turnout elections favor Democrats, since those that are less likly to vote are of a lower socio-economic status. With Obama increasing voter registration of African-Americans in Louisiana, it could easily favor all of our Congressional Candidates as well as the Senate race. Even if he doesn't win Louisiana's electoral votes.

Speaking of which, its a little off topic, but did anyone read this article from the Nation?

http://www.thenation.com/doc/2...

Pretty awesome.  


[ Parent ]
And to make things "perfect" in Louisiana
Would be to get rid of Bill Jefferson, but unfortunately I don't see that happening.  He's facing too many potential challengers, and enough people there seem to see him more as a victim than the slimy crook that he is.  It's too bad, because there is nowhere in the country that needs effective representation in Congress than the 2nd District of Louisiana.

Good we have a challenger
But a Democrat could spend $100 million of their own money in LA-01 and still not crack 40% of the vote.  That district is batshit crazy conservative.

Same thing in Indiana 04
We've got a great candidate in Nels Ackerson in Indiana 04, running against do-nothing jackwad Steve Buyer, but the district is only like 2 points less Republican than LA-01 -- so while its nice (and important) to give the sane folks in these two districts a viable alternative, most of them are not politically same enough to even consider it.

[ Parent ]
Well...
I'm going to go ahead and say that if Gary Trauner can win R+19 WY-AL, he'll hold it for quite a long time, and Larry LaRocco of R+19 ID-Sen can probably hold onto that seat for some time if elected.  Not as sure about Walt Minnick and R+19 ID-01, as I've yet to be impressed, though I look forward to seeing more about his campaign.  Of course, there's points to be made about PVIs shifting after the 2008 election, but still.

Now, those are all Western areas.  IN-04 is in the Midwest, which is the second most likely place for an insane R+ district to flip to us.  Least likely still remains the South, where LA-01 lies.

But...hey, it doesn't keep us from being hopeful...not to mention that LA and IN could be presidential swing states, and LA even has a competitive Senate race...

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...


[ Parent ]
The problem with IN-04
One of the problems with IN-04 is that it is a Democratic-drawn district, with Republican voters packed into it so that the surrounding districts are more Democratic-friendly.  It has the worst of both worlds for Democrats, in that its population center is Hendricks, Morgan, and most of Johnson Counties (the W. and S. Indianapolis ex-urbs), along with selected Republican rural/small town areas.  The only even moderate area is the West Lafayette area (Purdue University), which by college town standards isn't all that liberal.  These are hard core across-the-board conservatives, without the libertarian bent that many Western Republicans have -- and Gary Trauner last time had the advantage of running against a Republican that no one can stand.

[ Parent ]
And the millionaire's amendment is gone, right?


New Mexico politics from the local perspective.

Go Harlan and Oliver!
And I expect Lunsford to follow soon after.

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...

[ Parent ]
And Skelly. Oh baby I can't wait to see how much money he raises.


[ Parent ]

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