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TX-32: Sessions Leads By 9

by: James L.

Mon Jun 23, 2008 at 1:46 PM EDT

IVR Polls for Eric Roberson (6/4, likely voters):

Eric Roberson (D): 43
Pete Sessions (R-inc): 52
(MoE: ±4.1%)

TX-32 covers the northwestern suburbs of Dallas. Its population is 36% Hispanic and has a PVI of R+10.7. However, it's been trending in the right direction: under its current lines, the district supported Bush by 64-36 in 2000, but narrowed to 60-40 in 2004. Mid-decade redistricting forced Democratic Rep. Martin Frost to face off against the incumbent Sessions in 2004, resulting in Frost's defeat by a 54-44 margin. Dallas attorney Will Pryor (cousin of Arkansas Sen. Mark Pryor) attempted a dark horse campaign against Sessions in 2006, but lost by 56-41.

Eric Roberson appears to be even more of a dark horse candidate, having only raised $21,000 for his campaign so far. Of all the "long shot" campaigns in Texas this year (TX-07 and TX-10 are the two other notables), this one seems to be the unlikeliest. But a good showing by Roberson could provide us with some clues and inspiration for the future here.

James L. :: TX-32: Sessions Leads By 9
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Does anyoen know their track record?
Does IVR have a reasonably accurate track record or not?

They were quite good...
...during the TX presidential primary if I recall correctly, and their previous poll of Skelly's race lined up closely with internals from the same time frame.

Additionally, they had a poll of TX-10 in '06 that showed a close race, and the results seemed to bore their numbers out -- Ankrum was close, but he couldn't make his case to undecideds with no money.

They are new kids on the block, but I think their polls are worth considering.  You can definitely tell that they push leaners heavily, though.

[ Parent ]
OK, found some of their 2006 polls on
They did have a good record in 2006.

[ Parent ]
I'm amazed!
A 9 percent margin?  That's amazing!

I live in TX 32 and I can tell you that Sessions is despised by local officials.  He takes credit for Irving's 24-7 CAP criminal alien arrest policy and is well known to be a party boy in DC.

The thing that shocks me the most is this margin is 1.5% closer than Frost in 2004 and a 5-point improvement over Will Pryor in 2006.

According to IVR polling, IVR kept this race at historic turnout without any impact of high turnout predictions, yet CD32 is a majority minority district and is one of the younger districts in the state.

Also, the $21,000 number is 3 months old and reflects 3 way contested primary.

This County has turned Blue and the reds in CD-32 are not happy with McCain-many may stay home on election day.  

Roberson is setting up a detailed grassroots campaign.  This race is clearly within striking distance, especially since Roberson is a veteran, a young family man, and local boy who fits what the swing voters in CD-32 want.

do you have any idea
how much he has raised since the 21,000 figure here; these poll numbers are great BUT the 21,000 is anemic

[ Parent ]

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