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PA-06: Internal Poll Shows Gerlach With a Big Lead

by: James L.

Fri Jun 20, 2008 at 4:44 PM EDT


Public Opinion Strategies for Jim Gerlach (5/20-21, likely voters):

Bob Roggio (D): 30
Jim Gerlach (R-inc): 56
(MoE: ±4.9%)

POS isn't one of my favorite firms, but the numbers corroborate the conventional wisdom that Gerlach's in much better shape this year than he was in the past two cycles, when Democrat Lois Murphy gave him stiff but unsuccessful challenges.

One thing that's definitely worth noting are the favorability numbers for Gerlach and Roggio. Gerlach sits at a solid 58-20, while Roggio is at an almost comically low 4-1. Yes, those numbers suggest that Roggio has a mere 5% name recognition in this district.

Still, PA-06 is a Dem-trending D+2 district, and if Obama is crushing in November, an upset isn't out of the question. However, it appears that Gerlach may get lucky this year if these numbers are accurate.

SSP currently rates this race as Likely Republican.
James L. :: PA-06: Internal Poll Shows Gerlach With a Big Lead
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PA-06: Internal Poll Shows Gerlach With a Big Lead | 34 comments
comical doesn't even cover it. lol
Wow. That's is hysterical. What did he do before running for Congress? Was he a member of the Witness Protection program, or maybe a spy? lol I think that I have more name recognition in my Congressional District! lol
this poll is 1 MONTH OLD
and it's a republican poll; right now; given the demographics of the district AND the fact that gerlach won by less than an overwhelming margin last cycle, i call bullshit; i am going to go with the "ham sandwich" theory here, i say that the "ham sandwich" would poll AT LEAST 40% in this district today IF the "ham sandwich" is running as a democrat; obama AND the democratic party are SURGING at this time(national poll TODAY:obama 51 mccain 36); i don't think this poll is worth john nance garner's famous "bucket of warm piss"
his winning at all was overwhelming
I myself and pundits had this as one of the first pick ups, especially with Rendell and Casey both getting over 60% in the district, (try that on for coattails). But Murphy completely blew the election by running bad ads and a weak campaign, not hitting the Republican hard enough and by not getting votes in Montgomery. Even so, she should have won narrowly. The fact he was able to win was an upset. Roggio is a former State Senator, so I doubt he's sitting at 4% name recognition though.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
thanks for the info
i must admit, i know nothing of bob roggio OR rob boggio for that matter BUT i do know this; i looked at the demograpghics of this district(there has been a MAJOR increase in registered dems in it SINCE the last election by the way)and i call BULLSHIT on this poll; in november, i say that the "ham sandwich" baseline for ANY democrat in that district is a MINIMUM of 45%; i am not saying that roggio wins or loses but i am saying that this poll can be discarded like yesterday's trash AND that roggio CAN win
[ Parent ]
Former state senator?
Not sure where you got that from, but his biography reveals nothing of the sort. His only political experience seems to be as Philly volunteer coordinator for Kerry in 04 and suburban Philly coordinator for Casey in 06.

In other words: a neophyte.

[ Parent ]
excuse me
I'm sorry. Bob Rovner was a former state Senator. He lost to Roggio in the primary. I had the two Bob Rs mixed up.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
I'm trying to contain my enthusiasm...
but it's hard.  The past month has been almost all good news for Dems.  I do have a feeling that some of it is due to Obama wrapping up the nomination and Hillary's graceful (in my view) exit from the race and endorsement of Obama.  These amazing Obama polls from even traditionally red states can't last forever... can they?
[ Parent ]
i agree with EVERYTHING you say here
INCLUDING the containing of the enthusiasm part; clearly, this is OUR year and our TIME; but, there is a long way between now and november; our task is to not only ride the wave BUT to also keep any complacency from setting in; the republicans read the same polls we do; they will NOT be going quietly into that good night
[ Parent ]
Biggest House recruiting failure this cycle
Easily so.  We couldn't even find a 3rd tier recruit to run in a moderately democratic leaning district in an overwhelmingly pro-dem year? Argggggg.....
Bingo!!
I live his this district .. and I never heard of Roggio before he entered the race .. I haven't heard one peep from him anywhere .. so I guess the poll is accurate .. because no one knows who he is .. or anything about him .. the 30% are obviously die hard Dems
[ Parent ]
GOP Poll: PA-11 - Kanjorski losing to Barletta by 5
http://www.timesleader.com/new...

This poll sounds like complete BS.  No way in hell Kanjorski is behind at all much less down 5.  PA-11 is something like D+5 and Kanjorski has represented the district for decades.  Barletta for those who don't know is the right-wing nutcase Mayor of Hazleton, PA who has made national headlines for his extreme measures against illegal immigrants.

Barletta challenged Kanjorski in the pro-republican year of 2002 and lost 56-42%.  Of course Barletta wasn't as well known back then.  My guess is Kanjorski wins by 10 points minimum, maybe 15 or so.

I just don't
see a two decade incumbent like Kanjorski, who represents one of the most Democratic, (on a local level, Casey got some 65% of the vote here and it gives a much higher total to moderate culturally conservative dems than it does national dems), districts in Pennsylvania. Especially to a one trick pony like Bartletta, who even more importantly is a one trick pony on an issue that is like only the 6th most important issue, and is really only important to hardcore right wingers. Bartletta still isn't very well known, so I can't imagine he's beating Kanjorski, who's next closest race was in 1984, when he was a freshman incumbent in more Republican district with Reagan's coattails hurting him. This is probably not even a 50-50, I think the Republican poll is one of those 'bogus' polls. The ones that aren't done for the campaign to get a picture of the landscape, but are skewed for the campaign to release and work up hype, and increase donations and visibility of the race by making it look more winnable. I think the only reason the race was close in 2002 was because it was Republican leaning in the landscape, and there was a great deal of new territory, and I get the feeling he underestimated his opponent and didn't campaign hard. I'm sure that won't be the case this time.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
i agree with chad and ragin
BOTH of the polls being discussed in this thread can be thrown in the trash as far as i'm concerned
[ Parent ]
Exactly
This district is somewhat culturally conservative but economically liberal and very democratic on the whole.  Kanjorski has loads of cash and will stomp Barletta in any debate.  You can only trash immigrants for so long before people get sick of you.
[ Parent ]
exactly
..........
[ Parent ]
PA-11
Chris Cilizza has this one on his Friday line blog--apparently Barletta has a real good chance of winning this one.  Along with Lampson in TX-22 and Mahoney in FL-16, this could one one of the few democratic incumbents to go
down.
[ Parent ]
Then Cillizza is woefully uninformed about PA-11
Cillizza has PA-11 in his top 20 most likely states to flip and NY-26 isn't on the chart.  His list makes little sense.
[ Parent ]
A Lampson Update
I have been fairly critical of my congressman's campaign since he won re-election. I had been resigned that he was going to lose. Recent reports I am hearing though are suggesting something happened two weeks ago and a switch was flipped. Supposably he's got the office open and a giant staff full of interns on the ground already. If this is true (and applied MUCH better than it was in 2006) he may have a shot.

We'll see, I'm not as down on him as I was before. Olson is still favored, but Nick's not out yet. The Harris county coordinated campaign and the massive overlap of several local races in the Clear Lake area should help him a lot.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

[ Parent ]
He's in better shape than anyone imagined back in 2006
Seriously, who thought Lampson had a snowball's chance in hell of getting re-elected to this district?  Everyone, including myself, immediately wrote off this seat as a fluke than we won by crazy circumstances which would be a guaranteed loss in 2008.  Well, it's not such a guaranteed loss anymore.  Most analysts have it as tossup or slight republican edge.
[ Parent ]
Bob Roggio can win this
Bob Roggio is a good candidate - but not one who starts, before the campaign, with name recognition.  For that matter, neither did Lois Murphy the first time, though she had the advantage of Emily's List.  And there was no contest in the primary (the other two opponents pulled out, not to mention zero attention was paid to anything but the Presidential race during the PA primary), so Bob spend no money during the primary (which would have driven up recognition at this time and in this poll, but would have hurt in the fall).

Will it be tough to unseat Gerlach?  Yes - he's shown he will make ridiculous assertions in order to get re-elected, and can raise money to do so.  (Like claiming Lois Murphy supported the Taliban and rape of women.)  However, there are a lot of soft negatives for him left over from those races - people got very annoyed at some of what went on.  But I think it's really possible.

Also, Bob is probably demographically, locationally, and probably idealogically closer to the center of the (gerrymandered) district than Lois was.

Once he starts spending money to introduce himself to the voters (probably by mail - TV in the Philly market is way too expensive to use just for that at this point), those numbers will change radically.

And yes, in this district this year, John Doe (D) could probably get 40-45% of the vote with $0 budget.  So the trick is to get from there to 51%.  And this year, in this district, that's doable - if he can stay somewhere in striking range of Gerlach on fundraising, which is possible.

I prefer the "John Doe" name over the "ham sandwich" name
for the baseline Democratic vote share.  Something tells me that, while I might vote for a stereotypical Democrat, I probably won't vote for a ham sandwich.

Then again, a ham sandwich could be pretty darn tasty...

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
It would lose the Jewish vote.

[ Parent ]
Uhh.... no
We had a legit challenger running against Gerlach in 2006 and he still won.  This time around we have a 4th tier candidate.  What makes you think we have any chance?  

I'd say we might win PA-06 if we end up gaining 50+ seats.  

[ Parent ]
However,
Our Democratic Candidate's idea of a good ad in one of the most expensive media markets happened to be pointing to her crotch. She wasn't very good, and the fact that so many other incumbents (better incumbents too, like Fitzpatrick) lost while Gerlach won is a testament to just how weak Murphy was.
[ Parent ]
I saw several of her ads,
worst ads of the campaign season. Some were hilariously bad, and some were so generic and vague, 'we need better', we need to change Washington and do this and that', the crotch ad was one of those. They didn' have much barb and were full of bad acting. Man I'd like to have a word with the firm that produced these ads for her, and the people the approved them.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
Murphy was horrible ..
she basically let Rahm run her campaign for her ... it was sad .. that said .. Roggio better get going soon .. I haven't seen one word about him in the local paper yet .. nothing!!
[ Parent ]
was Lois Murphy too liberal for district?
I canvassed for her both races and talk to friends who split their ballots - Rendell (D) for Gov.; Casey (D) for Senate and Gerlach (R) for Congress - the few swing voters I personally know in that District said she was too liberal for them.  I wish Dan Wofford would have run again this time.  Also, Roggio hurt himself by blasting Gerlach for missing an important vote in Congress - but Gerlach was not there because his mother had died.  ouch  
what's your thought
on PA-11?

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
Kanjorski will probably survive
Rs lost element of surprise.  Kanjorski can cast some votes that might anger the folks on Kos but could help with swing voters in that district come election day.  He'll have ample funding.  Obama may not be as popular there as in Phila, the Phila suburbs, Centre county (Penn State) and Pittsburgh/ Allegheny county, but Obama won't be such a drag as to torpedo him.
[ Parent ]
but isn't Kanjorski ..
in a D+5 disrict?
[ Parent ]
Yes, it is D+5
But the dems in the district are of the moderate variety.  Kanjorski has represented it for decades and is a great fit.  The only reason it's on the map is because republicans succeeded in getting a nationally known candidate to run.  It won't be enough though.  Kanjorski won't have much trouble winning.
[ Parent ]
How was Murphy too liberal? ..
She was handpicked by Rahm ... it almost sounds like the reverse John Edwards effect .. people think he is more conservative than he really is .. and she is not as liberal as people think
[ Parent ]
speaking with a voter from PA-06
who, mind you, voted for Casey, Rendell, Kerry, Hoeffel, and Obama (in the primary), actually voted for Gerlach in the last election. He cites especially the ad "Liberal Lois" as the reason why - he'd rather have a "moderate" Republican than a raging liberal Democratic. Strange, I know, but these are "moderate voters" afterall. I especially think she lost because she ran a terrible campaign last time around, epitomized by the infamous crotch ad.
[ Parent ]
I don't remember the crotch ad ..
is it up on YouTube anywhere? .. and you are right .. she ran a very shitty campaign .. I know it it kind of silly .. but my polling place didn't have one of her yard signs ... when it had everyone else .. including Rendell and Casey
[ Parent ]
PA-06: Internal Poll Shows Gerlach With a Big Lead | 34 comments

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