Michigan 7

Those numbers would be good to have also as the races was actually close than many of the more high profile races.

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by: democraticavenger @ Fri Jan 19, 2007 at 18:57:11 PM CST

Wait that would be listed as an open seat

So, it is probably coming.

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by: democraticavenger @ Fri Jan 19, 2007 at 18:57:41 PM CST

[ Parent ]

PA 15 and MI 9

are particularly upsetting because of the chacter of the districts. NE 2 is very red,  PA 15 MI 9 were basic ties in the presidential.  I tried to bang on the drumb for them but with no avail.

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by: democraticavenger @ Fri Jan 19, 2007 at 19:58:16 PM CST

Candidate recruitment is important

We need to recruit stronger challenger than we did last year.

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by: Politicalhack @ Fri Jan 19, 2007 at 20:29:01 PM CST

[ Parent ]

I think our candidates

this cycle could have won those two districts with more party support.  When you think about 2.7 million spent on Ken Lucas, you have to wonder what could have been done if the focus had stayed  on the Bush 55 and under districts.

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by: democraticavenger @ Fri Jan 19, 2007 at 21:28:55 PM CST

[ Parent ]

KY-04

But look at how much more money the GOP spent in KY-04 than we did. Yeah, in retrospect, it looks kinda bad because we got slammed there. But if we hadn't been competitive there, the GOP would have had that surplus money to spread around elsewhere. And so without Ken Lucas, maybe Courtney or Marshall would have lost.

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by: DavidNYC @ Fri Jan 19, 2007 at 23:48:06 PM CST

[ Parent ]

I think our money

Went longer than their money. Just look at totally not targeted races, MI 9, PA 3, PA 15,MI 7. The complete lack of effort in those four races probably cost us a seat. The reason for my 50 seat tracking is to keep the targeting wide, so we don't have these undertargets.

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by: democraticavenger @ Sat Jan 20, 2007 at 14:54:52 PM CST

[ Parent ]

NE-2

Several thoughts on this one:

The under-the-radar aspect of this race (it was never rated as competitive by any analyst) kept most of the PAC money away, but it's also worth pointing out that Esch explicitly refused to take any PAC contributions. Independent expenditures by PACs in this race probably would have undercut Esch's message there.

I don't know if money from the DCCC would have helped. We saw what nationalizing the race in NE-03 did - Smith pulled it out because he was a Republican, plain and simple. Then again, NE-02 isn't quite as red as NE-03.

The major problem was fundraising. Esch didn't have nearly as much money as Thompson did in 2004, but he had a ground operation that blew hers away. (Thompson actually underperformed Kerry in 2004).

This is probably one of the best chances for a rematch in the country, and probably one of the best opportunities for the netroots to really make an impact, because of the emphasis on individual donors.

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by: DaveSund @ Fri Jan 19, 2007 at 23:41:28 PM CST

heh

We're not resting til we get one of these Nebraska seats are we?  ;-)

I say let's keep going for it. The rural seats are fun. We got half of Kansas now anyways, I wonder when we're gonna find a fun seat in Oklahoma to target. ;-)

For the record WY-AL was one of my big heart breakers this year, stands next to OH-15, NM-1, PA-6.

25, Male, Democrat, TX-26

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by: trowaman @ Sat Jan 20, 2007 at 01:26:00 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Yep

Although NE-02 is an urban/suburban seat. Which should be more favorable to us, but we haven't quite made it work yet.

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by: DaveSund @ Sat Jan 20, 2007 at 02:13:40 AM CST

[ Parent ]

WV-02

I love your breakdowns--great work!

In WV-02 it was maddening to have a strong candidate but no air cover whatsoever. The power of incumbency was quite strong and Shelley Moore Capito got essentially a free ride from the local media.

We're trying to change that at West Virginia Blue, keeping a watch on her every move the whole two year cycle: every dollar of fund-raising, every vote, every pander, and each day she lacks accomplishment for her district.

Your table does reinforce one thing I'm particularly proud of about WV-02 last November. She was running scared--including holding fund-raisers in DC the last two weeks before the election. We forced her to raise and spend $3M to buy her re-election.

The strong grass-roots, contest every race effort (powered in part, I believe, by a "Dean money" hired 50-state organizer) of WV-02 tied up Republican money and resources that would have otherwise gone to other races. Also, as Capito is contemplating an '08 run against Rockefeller, I'm sure wishing she had that last $1M she spent still sitting in the bank.

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Keep Wild, Wonderful, West Virginia Blue

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by: SLJ @ Sat Jan 20, 2007 at 11:40:12 AM CST

13 Seats

on this list should be considered competitive based on last year's expenditures:

CA-04 - D outspent by $1 million, which only managed to buy R 3%.  If corruption issues remain, Doolittle is in trouble.

CO-04 - D outspent by almost $2 million, which only purchased R 2%.  Musgrave can be beat.

IL-10 - D outspent by about $1.7 million, which only purchased R 7% against an inexperienced candidate who many believed was a carpetbagger.  We need a different candidate for this district.  Kirk can be beat in a Presidential year, especially if this seat is the focus of DCCC expenditures.

IL-11 - D outspent by about $1.3 million, which purchased R 10% against an inexperienced candidate.  Pavich should consider running again.  The DCCC should consider funding a candidate in this race during a Presidential year.  Lots of grassroots support for Pavich.

MI-09 - D outspent by $2.4 million, which purchased R 5%.  Skinner could have won this seat, but many refused to support her.  Knollenberg is clearly on borrowed time.

NC-08 - D outspent by $1.5 million, which purchased R approximately 300 votes.  Hayes is also on borrowed time, and Kissell will run again.  The DCCC should consider funding Hayes's unconventional campaign strategies.

NE-02 - Esch only outspent D by $500,000.  But neither candidate invested in this race.  Grassroots and late DCCC money could make the difference in this race, as it did with Boyda.  But the DCCC should enter in the last week with a media blitz.

NJ-07 - D outspent by $984,000.  NJ-07 may become another NM-01 or CT-04, but heavy investment one more cycle is certainly worth the gamble.

NY-25 - D outspent by $800,000, and R won by 2%.  This should be a top DCCC target.

OH-15 - $1.9 million purchased Pryce 1,000 votes.  This must be a top DCCC target, especially as Kilroy was Pryce's only real competition for many cycles.  Pryce will not be able to raise such funds now that she is not in the Republican leadership.

PA-15 - D oustpent by $1.18 million, but R could not clear 55%.  This is an obvious target.

WV-02 - D outspent by $2.4 million, but R could not clear 60%.  Aggressive recruitment and fundraising must begin now for this district.  We missed a great opportunity.

WY-AL - D outspent by about $500,000, which secured about 1,300 votes for R.  Cubin may not even clear the primary next cycle, and the Presidential race may make it harder for any D to win this seat.  But it should be a target, as it seems that both the incumbent and the NRCC take this seat for granted.

Learn more about Bobby Jindal.

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by: louisianagirl @ Sun Jan 21, 2007 at 13:43:03 PM CST