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2005/06 House Race Expenditure Round-up, Part One

by: James L.

Thu Jan 18, 2007 at 7:30 PM EST


Continuing our analysis of House race expenditures of the 05/06 elections cycle (we looked at the top ten non-party committee expenditures of the cycle on Tuesday), today I'll be posting total expenditures from the 22 races where a Democratic challenger beat a Republican incumbent (with the exception of TX-23, where I haven't been able to accumulate all the relevant data yet). And by total, I mean everything except expenditures from the shadowy 527s: candidate expenditures (listed under the "Spent" column), party committee expenditures, and independent expenditures from all sources.

Here's what I've tallied up:

District Candidate Spent DCCC IEs Other IEs Incumbent Spent NRCC IEs Other IEs
AZ-05 Mitchell $1.89M $2.12M $1.02M Hayworth $2.94M $2.25M $7k
CA-11 McNerney $2.34M $216k $1.1M Pombo $4.51M $1.43M $18k
CT-02 Courtney $2.37M $2.07M $1k Simmons $3.09M $2.74M $14k
CT-05 Murphy $2.44M $2.08M $975k Johnson $4.98M $1.88M $456k
FL-22 Klein $4.14M $2.31M $25k Shaw $5.19M $3.35M $217k
IN-02 Donnelly $1.49M $918k $355k Chocola $3.39M $383k $43k
IN-08 Ellsworth $1.72M $2.21M $166k Hostettler $530k $1.87M $21k
IN-09 Hill $1.86M $3.08M $75k Sodrel $2.64M $3.25M $69k
IA-02 Loebsack $443k (none) (none) Leach $519k $21k (none)
KS-02 Boyda $655k $652k (none) Ryun $1.03M $272k (none)
KY-03 Yarmuth $2.2M $321k $5k Northup $3.4M $248k $1.01M
MN-01 Walz $1.23M $371k $722k Gutknecht $1.69M $409k $22k
NC-11 Shuler $1.75M $171k $267k Taylor $4.11M $1.54M $19k
NH-01 Shea-Porter $286k (none) (none) Bradley $856k $21k (none)
NH-02 Hodes $1.47M $1.12M $198k Bass $1.21M $472k $24k
NY-19 Hall $1.57M (none) $5k Kelly $2.46M $19k (none)
NY-20 Gillibrand $2.47M $789k $333k Sweeney $3.38M $592k (none)
PA-04 Altmire $1M $399k $739k Hart $2.17M $619k $19k
PA-07 Sestak $2.92M $1.93M $277k Weldon $2.89M $3.56M $13k
PA-08 Murphy $2.35M $1.72M $189k Fitzpatrick $3.13M $3.62M $11k
PA-10 Carney $1.51M $1.11M $683k Sherwood $2.27M $1.51M $10k
Total $38.1M $23.6M $7.1M $56.4M $30.1M $2M

Now, obviously, these numbers don't tell anything close to the full story--they don't discern between positive and negative expenditures, the nature of the expenditures, and the time frame of the expenditures. But the basic framework makes it a decent starting point for our discussion. Note that total expenditures from all sources gave the Republicans a nearly $20 million edge ($89M to $69M) in these 21 districts. Also note how the mediocre fundraising of former New Hampshire Reps. Bass ($1.2M) and Bradley ($0.86M) foreshadowed their surprise defeats last November. Another interesting fact: in this top tier of House races, Republican-allied PACs were almost nowhere to be found--in fact, if it weren't for the $1 million spent by the National Association of Realtors PAC in support of Anne Northup (KY-03), Democrats would've enjoyed a 7-to-1 non-party IE advantage in these districts. Instead, they settled for 7-to-2.

Tomorrow I'll be posting part two of this discussion, featuring expenditures from open seats, competitive races where Democratic challengers fell short, and the few races where Republican House challengers put Democratic incumbents on the defensive.

James L. :: 2005/06 House Race Expenditure Round-up, Part One
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One Correction
I believe the "Other IEs" is wrong for NY-19/John Hall.  The group Majority Action spent some $500,000 on that race on behalf of Hall.

Majority Action...
...is a 527, not a PAC--and therefore, they do not file their expenditures with the FEC.

[ Parent ]
Three amazing
Boyda, Loebsack, Porter-Shea.
These campaigns need to be studied because of how they simply stunned everything.

[ Parent ]
Maybe so...
...but it's difficult to extrapolate lessons from their victories in an unusual year, and apply them to a normal cycle.  A Carol Shea-Porter type of campaign could have only won in a year like 2006 with the incumbent asleep at the switch.

[ Parent ]
Didn't know that
thanks for the clarification.

[ Parent ]
NRCC spending...
I noticed the roughly 20k the NRCC spent in NY-19, IA-02 and NH-01. Was this money for polling? If so, why didn't they spend more in these districts? Were they worried it would tip off the DCCC to the competitiveness of the districts?

I look forward to seeing how much the NRCC spent in NJ-07, NV-03, WY-AL, and NC-08.


In NY-19
The money the NRCC spent in NY-19 was on annoying robocalls that would repeatedly call the household until the entire message was heard.  Oh, and the way it was worded, it made it seem like it was a message from John Hall.

[ Parent ]
Horrendously thuggish...
...and indicative of Republican moral decay, but also probably the best bang for their buck they could've gotten.

Except in New Hampshire, where it was very publicly revealed and denounced before the election, contributing to their unprecedented downfall in the state.


[ Parent ]

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