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KS-Sen: New Poll Shows Slattery Trailing Roberts By 12

by: James L.

Thu Jun 12, 2008 at 10:15 PM EDT

Daily Kos diarist osagecokansasdem brings word of a new internal poll for Democrat Jim Slattery in Kansas:

Cooper & Secrest for Jim Slattery (6/5-8, likely voters):

Jim Slattery (D): 36
Pat Roberts (R-inc): 48
Undecided: 16
(MoE: ±3.5%)

That twelve point margin is a constant in every poll of this race that we've seen so far (Rasmussen in May and Research 2000 last week), so I think we can believe these numbers.

With only 56% name recognition, Slattery does have some room to grow, and Roberts' numbers are decidedly mediocre: a 47/43 job performance rating and a 48/29 favorability score. Even more startling is the generic Senate ballot, where the GOP is basically tied with the Democrats at 41-40. The numbers certainly suggest that while this is an uphill fight, Slattery has something to work with.

In the presidential race, the poll finds Obama trailing McCain by an eye-popping 45-41 margin in the state. In 2004, Bush smacked Kerry by 62-37 here.

James L. :: KS-Sen: New Poll Shows Slattery Trailing Roberts By 12
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Now you have my attention (sort of)
With the first one, or even two polls that showed Roberts up a dozen, I was skeptical.  I still think this race will be immensely hard to win, but clearly Slattery is within a doable range which is amazing considering the state, Roberts strengths, and the fact that Slattery has been out of politics for a long time.  

One factor to consider.  Roberts has never had a close race in career in Congress.  This is not something to underestimate.  If it somehow gets really close, he might not be completely ready to fight a vigorous campaign.  

This is still tier three, probably at about the same level as Texas, but interesting.  

Generic ballot, approval rating
tells me that this might become a competitive seat. We'll see.  

Obama numbers
scare me away from this poll.  I think Obama will do surprisingly well in Kansas but a 4% margin......  Seems pretty flawed to me.  But, he was shown doing well in CD1 and CD2 here so who knows.

Obama's numbers
might be caused by who is saying they are undecided. The margin will probably grow, since undecided voters in Kansas will tend to lean GOP. I think Obama keeps this closer, I expect he will lose her by about 10 points, unless he picks Sebelius as his VP. He might win then, but I still think the odds would be against the ticket.  

[ Parent ]
Interesting bit here.
Cook Political Report changes VA-11 from Toss up to Lean Democrat -

House Editor David Wasserman releases a ratings change in the race to replace retiring Virginia Rep. Tom Davis (R) following Tuesday's primary. With impressive ease, Fairfax County Supervisors Chairman Gerry Connolly (D) dispatched former Rep. Leslie Byrne (D) for the right to take on businessman Keith Fimian (R) in November.

[...]VA - 11 - OPEN (Davis) Toss Up to Lean Democratic

CQ Politics changed VA-11 from No Clear Favorite to Lean Democrat -

CQ Politics is making this change primarily for two reasons. One is a political environment, both nationally and locally within the 11th District, which is trending more Democratic than Republican. The other is that political veteran Connolly has a significant early advantage over Fimian in name recognition among district voters.

And CQ Politics did a 360 on NY-13.  -

Basically after the Fossella scandal broke, they made it No Clear Favorite.  After Fossella announced his retirement, they felt it warranted to give the edge back to Republicans.  Now that we can see the expected candidates are Powers and McMahon they changed it back to No Clear Favorite.  

A great place to be at this point...
12 points is certainly not insurmountable with 4+ months to go, but yet not so close that the incumbent is getting TOO worried too soon.  We need for Roberts to be complacent.

This belongs at the top of the Third tier, ahead of OK, TX, NE and ID.  

Sebelius as VP could be a big help too.  A 4 point Obama deficit does seem a little too good to be true, but certainly makes Sebelius look more attractive as a VP pick.    

Franken within 3 of Coleman in MN

If Jesse Ventura runs it is Coleman 39, Franken 32, Ventura 24.

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