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IN-03: First Poll of the Race

by: James L.

Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 3:52 PM EDT

Cooper & Secrest for Michael Montagano (likely voters, 4/24 and 4/26-27):

Michael Montagano (D): 28
Mark Souder (R-inc): 55
(MoE: ±4%)

You might remember Indiana's 3rd CD as one of those freak races from 2006. An R+16.3 district, Democrat Tom Hayhurst waged a decently-financed campaign that hit hard against Washington corruption and the status quo. In the end, he held incumbent Rep. Mark Souder to a surprisingly close 54-46 result, which is none too shabby in a district that gave Bush 68% in 2004.

This time, the numbers clearly show an uphill fight for Democrat Michael Montagano. But while he may be unknown right now, Montagano has raised a decent amount of money, currently sitting at #14 on SSP's Cash-on-Hand Competitiveness rankings.

Other findings from the poll offer glimmers of hope: Souder's job approval is at a mediocre 46% positive/46% negative. And while it is pushy, 46% agree and 44% disagree with the following statement: "We can't change the culture of Congress unless we change our Reps; it's time for Souder to come home and for someone else to represent us."

This race is one of the longer long shots, but it's still worth watching.

James L. :: IN-03: First Poll of the Race

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IN-03: First Poll of the Race | 6 comments

not bad

Anything that causes Republicans to spend more money in IN-3 is just more money they can't spend in 2, 6, 8... If I remember my numbers correctly. lol Or, for that matter, in the Governor's race... All that money has to come from somewhere. lol

by: Venslor @ Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 20:20:59 PM UTC

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IN 3 and 4

Montagano and Ackerson are both putting up solid fundraising numbers in 2 very Republican districts. I would like to see both of these guys get the attention they clearly deserve. Any boost in democratic turnout in these districts will be a boon to the Governor's race near the top of the ticket and in the event that we shoudl actullay pull one of these races off for the win, thats just icing on the cake.

Check out http://electioninspection.word... for the latest news, election results, poll analysis, and predictions

by: skywrnchsr509 @ Sat Jun 07, 2008 at 02:32:31 AM UTC

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Hotties

It's completely irrelevant to anything political, of course, but I know that some folks, like People Magazine, do pay attention to the Hotness of candidates and/or their spouses.

They should follow the link to
www.montaganoforcongress.com

Well, of course, the candidate's looks, or his wife's, might get him some votes. All things being equal, I'd prefer to vote for a good-looking Democrat than some ugly Repub incumbent any day.

by: WoodyNYC @ Sat Jun 07, 2008 at 03:07:47 AM UTC

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Very attractive couple

And they both seem very accomplished for their age. His wife is a museum curator, which sounds like an interesting job. However I think we caught Souder by surprise in 2006 with a competitive campaign. I'm sure Souder learned his lesson and will campaign harder this time around. It's an uphill fight but we do have a shot in that district.

by: ChadInFL @ Sat Jun 07, 2008 at 03:15:59 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Closer Than That Poll Suggests

If you look at the primary data you'll see that the Republican turnout was slightly down in the 3rd District while Democratic turnout was incredible.

In fact Montagano almost received the same number of votes in the primary as Hayhurst did in the general. In fact in some of the counties he outperformed Hayhurst. If Democrats can keep the momentum and energy into the fall then this means this race is already as competitive as it was in 2006.

And while Hayhurst was competitive I would argue his campaign was lackluster - and that's probably being nice. He ran a decent grassroots operation but he waited way, way too long to start politicking in the traditional media where Souder had been hammering him for quite some time.

You know, your typical stuff, a vote for Hayhurst is a vote for Pelosi, Hayhurst soft on immigration, Hayhurst the liberal...

by: jpruitt @ Sat Jun 07, 2008 at 14:14:53 PM UTC

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Longshot, but worth watching

It's not that many people in NE Indiana thing Souder is bad as much as irrelevant. He doesn't raise a lot of money, isn't associated with any particular issue, he doesn't seem ... to do much of anything. So while this is a longshot, it's worth keeping an eye on. Also, this is basically (with some significant re-districting alterations) the district that Jill Long Thompson represented in Congress in the 1990s, and she's going to do better there than most Democrats do.

by: IndianaProgressive @ Sun Jun 08, 2008 at 12:52:53 PM UTC

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IN-03: First Poll of the Race | 6 comments