MN-02: Poll Shows Potential for Sarvi

by: James L.

Wed Jun 04, 2008 at 9:41 PM EDT

A Goodwin Simon Victoria Research poll (5/19-22, likely voters) of Minnesota's 2nd CD suggests that this R+2.7 district is turning a bluer shade of pale. From the polling memo:

It has become very clear in this election cycle that many Congressional seats formerly considered "Republican" seats are now in play; very little is safe for the GOP at present. Our recent poll results indicate that Minnesota's 2nd Congressional District has officially reached the tipping point, as the generic ballot between any "Democrat" and a "Republican" for Congress starts out as tied, 40% to 40%, for the first time in this district's history. Add to this Sarvi's compelling personal narrative and moderate inclinations, and Democrats have a real chance to take this district in November.

A few other numbers: 76% of voters rate Bush's job performance negatively, while Kline's approval rating is at a fairly poor 39%/44%. With no head-to-heads released, we can safely assume that Kline leads at this early stage. However, after hearing a positive statement about the Democratic candidate, Steve Sarvi, Sarvi pulls ahead by 49%-37%.

Now, it takes a lot of money to educate voters, but Sarvi has a compelling profile as a small town mayor and Iraq veteran. If he can get his message out there, perhaps he can do what Coleen Rowley failed to manage in 2006.

One never knows this year.