Let's hope for a late Gilchrest endorsement

This is interesting.  A friend of mine has been pushing this race to me for a while.  Gilchrest will not back Harris, and many of his people are actively working for Kratovil.  If Wayne Gilchrest decides to give an endorsement to our candidate later in the game, it could make a big difference.  

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by: Andy Dufresne @ Fri May 23, 2008 at 03:58:04 AM UTC

Thoughts from Maryland

I have known Frank Kratovil for 11 years and volunteered on his first campaign for State's Attorney (where in the primary he defeated a good-old-boy longtime incumbent and after he was elected he professionalized the State's Attorney's office).  

I have never met a harder campaigner than Frank Kratovil.  Obviously an R+9.8 district is a challenge, but I have enough confidence that Frank can win this that for the second time in my life (the first was Howard Dean) I spent months saving up and with the help of the $600 stimulus rebate and a slightly larger than expected tax refund I have maxed out to Frank's campaign.

I did this because on top of being confident that Frank can win this seat, I also know he is the type of better Democrat that will do his research and will stand up for the constitution and the rule of law and not let a President violate the law.  He is a policy wonk trapped in a charismatic politician's body.

Now on the issue of winnability... this district, has similar characteristics as the R+10 district of MS-1 in that it has a huge geographic divide and the Republican candidate comes from the wrong part of the district.  Population wise 50% of the district is on the Eastern Shore of MD, 25% of the district is in Baltimore County and Harford County exurbs of Baltimore City (kind of like Southhaven, MS was to Memphis), and 25% of the district is in Anne Arundel County north of Annapolis.  Frank is a local prosecutor on the Eastern Shore.  The Republican (a Club for Growth guy) Andy Harris is a State Senator from Baltimore County.  The Eastern Shore has a strong regional dislike of Baltimore.  

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by: evcoren @ Fri May 23, 2008 at 04:26:42 AM UTC

i believe that ...

a bit over 60% of the population is on the Eastern Shore (not 50%) so even better prospects for Kratovil if this turns into a regional contest like MS-1.  Only 15 % is in AA Co. and like you said 25% in Balto./Hartford (out of that it's 16% Hartford & only 9% Balto. Co. where the GOP nominee is from -- Harris is from Cockeysville I believe -- literally the NW-most corner of the district -- just like Davis was from the NW-most corner of his district in Memphis burbs).

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by: silver spring @ Fri May 23, 2008 at 14:16:41 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

do you happen to know

the % of black population(NOT registered voters;total population)in this district? see what i'm saying? there is a HUGE amount of unregistered blacks in this country(whites also)who would be eligible voters if they only took the time to register; this cycle, the obama folks AND the dnc will be registering MILLIONS of new voters; would that help here? just curious

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by: jackdawkins @ Fri May 23, 2008 at 19:22:06 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Black population

Looks like it's about 11%.

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by: KCinDC @ Fri May 23, 2008 at 20:13:54 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

MD 1

Kratovil gave a good speech to the MSTA (Maryland State Teacher's Association).  He will get their support, although I don't know how influential MSTA is in that neck of the woods.  

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by: kallen808 @ Fri May 23, 2008 at 22:44:43 PM UTC