Premium Sponsor

Featured Sponsor

Our Sponsors

Ad Networks

Buy an ad on all of the top liberal blogs with just one click.

Site Stats

MS-Sen-B: Musgrove Leads Wicker by Eight

by: James L.

Tue May 20, 2008 at 4:10 PM EDT

Hamilton Campaigns (5/15-18, likely voters):

Ronnie Musgrove (D): 48
Roger Wicker (R-inc*): 40
(MoE: ±4%)

Musgrove's favorables are at 57-30, while the lesser-known Wicker is sitting at 42-14. In the 1st Congressional District, Wicker's homebase (and one picked up by Democrat Travis Childers last week), Wicker only leads by 48-43. Even the presidential race is reasonably close:

Like the 1st District race, party labels will not appear on the ballot beside Wicker and Musgrove's name, because the November race is technically a special election to fill Republican Trent Lott's seat. That factor could help Musgrove win voters who are also planning to vote for Republican Sen. John McCain, who is winning the state 50%-41%, according to the poll. President Bush won Mississippi 59%-39% in 2004.

James L. :: MS-Sen-B: Musgrove Leads Wicker by Eight

Tags: MS-Sen-B, (All Tags)

Print Friendly View

Send As Email

MS-Sen-B: Musgrove Leads Wicker by Eight | 29 comments

my first reaction

hooooolyyyyyyy shit.... lol Wow... The GOP must have just crapped themselves when they saw this poll! Glad I decided to become a democrat back in 04... lol Or I would really be hating politics right now! lol

by: Venslor @ Tue May 20, 2008 at 15:30:24 PM CDT

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

No it's a Dem internal poll

I doubt they are sweating.

by: ChadInFL @ Tue May 20, 2008 at 15:32:27 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

Even still...

While most internal polls are slightly tilted one way or the other, I seriously doubt that they added 15 points for Musgrove. The fact remains that even with a bias, and even with a margin of error, this is a lot closer than anyone would have really thought a Senate race in Mississippi would have been four years ago!

by: Venslor @ Tue May 20, 2008 at 15:37:43 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

I bet they are sweating

Even allowing for the fact it is a partisan poll means they are at worst tied and the Repubs financial position doesn't allow for all these second-tier races opening up. With all these new polls (NC, TX, AK, ME, KS, MS) I'm ready to increase my prediction from 5-7 to 6-8.

by: conspiracy @ Tue May 20, 2008 at 16:06:41 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

Survey USA shows Hagan just 4 points Behind Dole

A new SurveyUSA poll in North Carolina shows Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R-NC) narrowly edging Kay Hagan (D), 50% to 46%.

Key findings: Among white voters, Dole leads by 24; among blacks, Hagan leads by 66. Blacks make-up 20% of the electorate in SurveyUSA's turnout model today. If blacks vote in larger numbers, the contest is closer. Among men, Dole leads by 13; among women, Hagan leads by 3. Among voters age 18 to 49, Dole leads by 13; among voters 50+, Hagan leads by 5.

To those that thought that this race was unwinnable or nearly so because Easley, Richard Moore and Brad Miller and Greer Martin passed on this race, please note that Hagan LEADS among women. Would that be happening with a male nominee??

With Obama at the top of the ticket and TWO women just below the top ,running for Governor and Senate, Democratic turnout could be huge in NC.

by: vicupstate @ Tue May 20, 2008 at 20:39:34 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

Awesome.

One has to think Obama will help bring out more African-American voters. And a few million from the national party will help close the gap.

by: C.S.Strowbridge @ Tue May 20, 2008 at 20:46:17 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

Yes, the African-American it means everything in MS

Mississippi is so polarized racially when it comes to politics it isn't funny. I believe statewide Democratic candidates only need something like 25% of the white vote to win, considering blacks vote around 90% Dem. Unfortunately we never seem to hit that number. However a slight uptick in black turnout can put us over the top in races like the Musgrove-Wicker.

by: ChadInFL @ Tue May 20, 2008 at 20:55:01 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

this is exactly the reason why

musgrove can win this race; to win in the south, the democrats have to split the white vote and take all the black vote; i believe that musgrove will do very well in the white vote statewide(enough to make this a real race)and take ALL the black vote(with obama drawing out the blacks in record numbers to boot)

by: jackdawkins @ Tue May 20, 2008 at 21:56:36 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

I posted it in another thread: McCain - 51 Obama - 43

http://www.surveyusa.com/clien...

About what I expected for the Presidential race.

by: ChadInFL @ Tue May 20, 2008 at 20:57:46 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

SUSA begs the AA vote at 20%.

I think that's at least six points pessimistic.

by: James L. @ Tue May 20, 2008 at 21:01:55 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Ya I think Brad Miller is waiting for 2010

to take on Burr for the other Senate seat. Ironically it now appears he would have had a better shot this year against Dole. Oh well, no guts no glory. Hagen is our nominee and looking good.

by: ChadInFL @ Tue May 20, 2008 at 20:59:46 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

This poll

Has to have about a +20 Musgrove inflation for the NRSC to breathe easy. I don't think its that off.

by: safi @ Tue May 20, 2008 at 20:05:44 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

A Dem internal poll is pretty much worthless

The Kos commissioned poll will be much more accurate.

by: ChadInFL @ Tue May 20, 2008 at 15:31:23 PM CDT

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

not really true

As Ambinder pointed out, why would the DSCC release a +8 if it was so far from reality? It not only inflates expectations early in the game, but if/when a non-partisan poll comes out and shows a blow-out for Wicker, it makes the DSCC look stupid.

Insider polls for commmittees are usually inflated by 5ish, never by 15ish.

Figure this race is even right now, and Barack flips a solid 8%ish in November from one column to the other. One more of these polls and Musgrove and MS get added to Begich in AK, Franken in MN, Novick/Merkeley in OR and Allen in ME as solid 2nd tier senate seat legitimate toss-up opportunities, and that's not even considering TX, ID and all the others that we love to hope and hope to love :)

This is good news.

by: Ajax the Greater @ Tue May 20, 2008 at 16:26:11 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

Why?

It serves no purpose when the DSCC is trying to decide where to spend money. They seem biased because no one ever releases bad news.

by: RandySF @ Tue May 20, 2008 at 16:51:15 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

we'll see if the DSCC

puts its MONEY where its mouth is; IF the dscc puts REAL money into this race; then we will know for sure that we are competitive here

by: jackdawkins @ Tue May 20, 2008 at 15:48:27 PM CDT

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

Well Musgrove needs to step it up too

His fundraising has been pathetic compared to Wicker's.

by: ChadInFL @ Tue May 20, 2008 at 16:01:12 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

well

when the Q2 reports come out, we'll def. know a little more; my point here is simple(which i pointed out during the childers race), ALL signs coming out of MS this cycle have been good ones for our party; this is just one more good sign for us; like you, i look forward to the kos poll as well BUT for us to know FOR SURE that we have a race here is simple; IF the dscc puts REAL money into this race, then we know that we have a chance

by: jackdawkins @ Tue May 20, 2008 at 16:07:34 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

Cash

It will help the quicker the top four are closed out - if the DSCC doesn't have to spend on VA, NM, NH and CO with its financial clout it can go all in to OR, ME, MN, AK, MS, NC, TX, OK, NE, ID, KS etc. The NRSC won't have enough funds to spread around and a comfortable Obama win could result in a mirror image of 1980 and Dems reaching 60+ seats with ease.

by: conspiracy @ Tue May 20, 2008 at 16:40:40 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

exactly

i have advocated on this site exactly what you post here; i think those 4(with keeping a watchful eye on the CO race, even though i think mark udall will win there maybe 54-46%)should left to the locals(for now), while the dscc looks to expand the map to the other races you mention

by: jackdawkins @ Tue May 20, 2008 at 16:47:03 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

indeed.

It will be good to have another Democratic Senator from the Deep South. Miss Mary of Lousiana was getting lonely! lol

by: Venslor @ Tue May 20, 2008 at 16:41:42 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

SORRY ABOUT THE THREAD JACKING

but i could not resist; kos is reporting that the gopers(GREAT HOPE)against john kerrey in MASS may not have the VALID signatures(10,000) to make the ballot!!!!!!!!!! apparently there is a primary opponent with enough valid sigs AND this opponent is more than willing to challenge this; the gopers picked the fellow that lost the special election to nikki tsongas last year and now he MIGHT NOT MAKE THE BALLOT!!!!!!!!!!!!!! THE GOPERS ARE LITERALLY BECOMING A JOKE BEFORE OUR EYES............

by: jackdawkins @ Tue May 20, 2008 at 17:02:19 PM CDT

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

I know repubs are in bad shape in MA

But I assumed there were at least 10,000 of them there.

by: ChadInFL @ Tue May 20, 2008 at 18:29:37 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

Even Alan Keyes won't run in MA?

by: ChadInFL @ Tue May 20, 2008 at 18:31:22 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

If kos's poll show's simular results

and Musgrove at least raises a million in this quarter this is a very good pickup opportunity.

Musgrove is clearly in a good position and MS is a cheap media market. If he can at least only get out-spend 2-1 then the DSCC will fill the gap and use the same play book as the DCCC did with Childers.

We could have a corporate Joe proof 60 seat majority!

by: Populista @ Tue May 20, 2008 at 17:32:22 PM CDT

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

Too good to be true.

I'm waiting for independent confirmation before I get too excited here. Even if it wasn't an internal poll, it could be an outlier.

by: C.S.Strowbridge @ Tue May 20, 2008 at 18:37:13 PM CDT

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

There have been other polls

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner polling showed Musgrove ahead 48% to 34% back in 12/2-5/08. Though I tihnk that Greenberg is a internal poll as well (not sure though).
Research 2000 did a poll back in 12/10-12/07 and saw Musgrove trailing 39% to 47%.
I'm curious does anyone know if Wicker will face a primary challenge?

by: Hamtree @ Wed May 21, 2008 at 01:16:11 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

IIRC

only wicker and musgrove on the ballot in november WITHOUT ANY party designation(musgrove name first as well)which will help musgrove to a small degree

by: jackdawkins @ Wed May 21, 2008 at 01:24:24 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

That R2K poll was faulty

Its crosstabs had the black vote at 9% -- which is beyond lowballing it in a state with a 36 or 37% black population. If that poll was weighted properly, Musgrove would've been ahead.

by: James L. @ Wed May 21, 2008 at 01:43:43 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

MS-Sen-B: Musgrove Leads Wicker by Eight | 29 comments