This sucks

In NY, the State Senate is more valuable than this one Congressional seat. Is her senate seat of for re-election this year?

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by: RandySF @ Wed May 14, 2008 at 11:48:52 AM CDT

Yes

but a strong candidate (I'm looking at you McMahon) can keep her Senate seat blue.

Savino would be favored in a Congressional race. She's logistically the best choice.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

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by: nrafter530 @ Wed May 14, 2008 at 12:04:16 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Yes - state senate terms in NY are 2 years

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by: DCal @ Wed May 14, 2008 at 12:04:32 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

maybe so

However, it seems to be a fairly Democratic district overall.

A net two seat gain is needed for Democratic state Senate majority, which isn't much.  And this seems to be the only Democratic-held seat that may be open.  It really shouldn't be beyond the NY state Democratic Party to mount the 3-5 competitive campaigns for state Senate seats it needs to wage.

I think there's quite a bit of untapped money in New England for the General, from people who see policy reasons to want Joe Bruno out.  The primary can probably run on local money to get Bruno out, as the major immediate problem in Albany.

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by: Baystater @ Wed May 14, 2008 at 15:01:32 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

problem is

if i'm correct, she'd already all but endorsed recchia... who in my opinion doesn't deserve any endorsement, let alone congressional seat, or anything more than getting his corrupt ass term-limited out of the city council next year...

i do feel that she's likely the most progressive of the staten island triumvirate, applaud her labor and WFP connections, so i am glad to see that she appears to be leaning towards running.

her state senate district would be easy to hold even without mcmahon, as it includes the liberal section of staten island and an even more liberal section of brooklyn.

It is difficult to get the news from poems, but men die miserably every day for lack of what is found there. --William Carlos Williams

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by: RichardPlatypus @ Wed May 14, 2008 at 13:16:49 PM CDT

Filing requirements

State Law requires 1,250 signatures to qualify for a House seat.  When I was living in NY state (1985-96), election challenges were extremely numerous and extremely successful.  The connected ones got on the ballot and challengers had an awfully hard time.  I've been informed that the state's election laws, then among the worst in the country, have been amended and are no longer as ahem strange.  That's a much needed change.

The petitions go out on June 3 and I think that those who wait on this may be screwed.  By getting out front, Savino is making it toughrer for the others.  Besides, she's not only from Staten Island, she's got an Italian name.  It sounds crazy but if Dan Donovan is the Republican nominee a surprisingly large group of voters will vote for Savino on the name alone.  In my town of 7,500 in NJ (one of the 10 highest % Italian-American in the country per the census bureau), the number is about 300 out of a normal vote of 2,000.  It will be smaller for a congressional election but may well be 5% of the vote.  That's the election in NY-13.  

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by: David Kowalski @ Wed May 14, 2008 at 13:24:09 PM CDT

i wondered about ethnic politics

and whether there's an equally significant irish vote... which could benefit a dan donovan or a michael mcmahon equally...

but they certainly don't seem to be running the show like the fossellas, and even more so in SI, the molinaris of the world (two of whom are vito's successors)...

ballot access has supposedly improved but it's pretty darn tough... i only know it on the city level where you need about 1000 in-borough signatures just for a city council seat, however i don't think any of the names out there would have trouble getting on

It is difficult to get the news from poems, but men die miserably every day for lack of what is found there. --William Carlos Williams

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by: RichardPlatypus @ Wed May 14, 2008 at 17:36:04 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Russian

My guess is that the Russian/Eastern European population is the next largest ethnic group in the district outside of Italian.  Alec Brook-Krasny is the first russian born elected official in NYC, currently holding an Assembly seat in the Brooklyn portion of this district.  Also Peter Abbate's district is gradually becoming more ethnically diverse with Russian and Chinese.  These voting block will be most heavy in Brooklyn but slowing moving into Staten Island as the trend is going.  

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by: jonah in nyc @ Wed May 14, 2008 at 23:39:34 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Assembly member Abbate

A new name today considering the race is Assemblyman Peter Abbate from Brooklyn.  His district overlaps portions of Savino's in Brooklyn.  Peter is well liked and respected in his district having represented it for 20+ years.  I will have a potential candidate post for him later tonight.  

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by: jonah in nyc @ Wed May 14, 2008 at 13:31:38 PM CDT

Peter Abbate Profile

Here is Assembly Member Abbate's profile to go with the others.

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by: jonah in nyc @ Wed May 14, 2008 at 23:40:41 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

If she wants to be in Congress

She better run now. She's talking like she wants Fossella to retire first There will be no better opportunity because:

1. Another strong candidate may beat Fossella and she may have to wait a decade or two.
2. Fosella is somehow re-elected and is in a stronger position in 2010.
3. Fossella is re-elected and Republicans line up a strong successor for 2010.

Yes, Fossella is weak enough that one of the current canddiates could beat him, but we have to look at 2010. With a Democratic in the White House, it may or may not be a good year for us. Better to have a strong candidate for re-election with a base on Staten Island. Make your mind up quickly, Dianne.

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by: RandySF @ Wed May 14, 2008 at 16:09:48 PM CDT

Steve Harrison

Steve Harrison.  He's already up and running.  He almost beat Fossella in '06, and he's poised to make it happen this time.  Don't waste your time on late-comers and possible wannabes.  We've already got an established candidate with solid credentials who's doin' it right now.
Contribute, get involved, and make it happen.
http://actblue.com/entity/fund...

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by: NBachers @ Thu May 15, 2008 at 01:56:08 AM CDT

I have a feeling

That the field is about to be overburdened with Brooklyn based candidates. If Savio or some other SI-based Dem runs, they will be favored.

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by: RandySF @ Thu May 15, 2008 at 02:25:59 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

harrison didn't almost beat fossella

in the interest of accuracy, steve harrison lost 57-43 in a year when democrats did historically well nationwide and when spitzer and clinton demolished the competition in New York.  that's why the national party leaders and some local leaders are looking for another candidate with electoral experience.

the need for a staten islander seems pretty strong here.  i think senator savino should start running now if only to scare fossella into resigning.

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by: st paul sage @ Thu May 15, 2008 at 15:28:45 PM CDT