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Tom Cole Deathwatch Thread, No. 6

by: James L.

Tue May 13, 2008 at 10:22 PM EDT


James L. :: Tom Cole Deathwatch Thread, No. 6
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Tom Cole Deathwatch Thread, No. 6 | 35 comments
hehe
I said after LA-06 I was looking forward to seeing this map

oh, it looks so freakin' sweet. Like loosing my virginity at 18 after all my friends...it was worth the wait. If I still smoked, I'd have a cigarette right now.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

Too much information.
I hope you get the opportunity to change your pants.
[ Parent ]
LOL!
Yeah. A bit TMI.
[ Parent ]
I'm not wearing any pants
j/k

I'm still in a little bit of shock to see a lovely shade of blue covering Northern Mississippi.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

[ Parent ]
Margin
It's up to 52/48 now, will it climb higher? How much?
my thoughts
I'd be thrilled with 54-46, but that's highly unlikely...

53-47 would be awesome though and a huge win!

worse case scenario is it stays at 52-48, and for Childers to pull that out in this district is a great sign for Nov, especially when you consider the other Special Elections and Dem enthusiasm this year

[ Parent ]
Totally
but the bigger the margin, the more compelling the death watch.
[ Parent ]
Actually
With Clay and Itawamba still out, 53 is reasonable and 54 is within the realm for sure.
[ Parent ]
53-47 Now!
53-47 now!!!

Clay is now done... Prentiss almost done, but Itawamba still out so we should pick up another 1500+ votes at least

[ Parent ]
54/46
book it.
[ Parent ]
I had previously
referred to LA-06 and this as a 1-2 punch, if we could properly pull it off. I've changed my mind... Foster and Cazayoux were the 1-2 punch, and this was the uppercut that follows the 1-2 punch and leaves your opponent unconscious on the mat.
hot damn
That looks really great!
Boom!
Even Huckster who campaigned for Davis said it was a huge blow!
Republicans called MS-01 the Tiebreaker
It's clear who broke the tie :-D
Three big victories!
Tom Cole has got to stay, we want more victories!
HAW HAW!!!


Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

haha
PERFECT!
[ Parent ]
My thoughts exactly! (n/t)


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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
Ronnie Musgrove
Hopefully this bodes well for Musgrove in his race against Wicker.
Yes, that is an overlooked race
Musgrove is well-known with a good record of winning statewide.  He needs to increase his fundraising fast though.  Wicker is raising boatloads of cash.
[ Parent ]
We need SenateGuru!
SenateGuru, go on strike for Ronnie Musgrove!

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
Epiphany
In 2005 and 2006, we narrowly lost two heartbreakers (CA-50 and OH-02) but still gained 30 seats when it was over.

This year, we've won three seats.  Imagine what November will look like...

Also, these three wins goes to show you what happens with the establishment, the grassroots, and the netroots are all on the same page.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

I'm not outright predicting it yet
My official prediction is still 20-30 seats, but as races develop, I'm expecting there to be more than 2006.  Money, stronger candidates, etc.    
[ Parent ]
My preliminary ratings of the House
currently have 10 Republican-held House seats (not counting the three that we captured in special elections) that could very possibly flip. I haven't updated my ratings in a while, since the R seats I have listed as toss-up are AZ-01, IL-11, MN-03, MO-09, NJ-03, NJ-07, NM-01, NY-25, OH-15, and VA-11. I am considering moving some more R seats into toss-up status, such as AK-AL and possibly NY-13 if we have a candidate from S.I.

http://californianintexas.blog...

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)

[ Parent ]
Don't Forget WA-08!
Darcy Burner is going to win come November!
[ Parent ]
Speaking of WA-08...
what tells you that, as opposed to a repeat of 2006?  I'd like her to win too, but I'm just lacking any info (read: itching for polling data).

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
Two things
1. PVI rating is D+2.  Since there will be increased turnout for the presidential race, this should give Darcy Burner a slight boost.  

2. Fundraising/Spending.  In the last two elections, Reichert has slightly outspent his opponents.  He's got some solid fundraising.  This time we have outfundraised him just a bit, and he's been getting help all along the way.  Bush, etc.  Also, this is on the DCCC's Red to Blue list.  This race is hot on our sights.  

The big thing this year, is the RNC bailed out Republicans in 2006.  This time they are stuck fighting the presidential race.  So when we have a cash advantage of 44.3 million (as of April 1st) to 7.1 million, that's a big advantage.  

[ Parent ]
Plus
1)The district has increasingly been treading our way. The district use to be mainly Republican in the state legislature but now it's mainly Democratic.

2)There has been a ton of excitement there and new voter registrations due to Clinton vs Obama.

[ Parent ]
I think another Retirement Watch is appropriate.
Chris Cilizza was talking about retirements in the event of tonight happening.
Quick question...
Party abels were ot put next to candidate names on the ballot for this election.  Is that standard practice for all MS elections or was it only done for this special election?  Because I imagine leaving off party labels helps dems a bit.
Special Elections
I think Mississippi only does it for special elections.
[ Parent ]
1994 Tom Cole = Karma's a Bitch
Check out this link from a May, 1994 special Tom Cole polled for Rep. Frank Lucas in Oklahoma, particularly last 2 paragraphs, when the shoe was on the other foot.

http://www.encyclopedia.com/do...

Look at this
Heh... had almost forgot
how dominant Dems were in MS until the past two decades.  Almost all reps in that district for 100 years+ were Dems.
[ Parent ]
Childers is relatively young too
Only 50.  He could serve many terms in the House if he can get past the next 1 or 2 cycles.  MS loves incumbants.
[ Parent ]
Tom Cole Deathwatch Thread, No. 6 | 35 comments

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