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MS-01: Results Thread #2

by: James L.

Tue May 13, 2008 at 10:06 PM EDT


462 of 462 Precincts Reporting
CandidatePartyVotesPercent
Travis Childers (D)57,27654%
Greg Davis(R)49,31446%

RESULTS: Northeast Mississippi Daily Journal | Columbus Dispatch | Clarion-Ledger

County-by-County Baselines (4/22 and 4/1 results)

10:34PM: A big thank you to everyone who commented, donated, made phone calls, volunteered or blogged about this race.  Travis Childers and the Mississippi Democrats just took what was supposed to be a GOP cakewalk and delivered a deathblow.  Savor this win -- because it's a huge one.
10:17PM: Trent just left for the TRAVIS CHILDERS VICTORY PARTY!!!
10:15PM: Folks, sorry for this site crashing tonight.  We've been utterly slammed with traffic at a level that we haven't seen since election night '06.
10:14PM: CHILDERS WINS!!!
10:13PM: Folks, I think we just won this race.
10:06PM: Time for a new thread.
James L. :: MS-01: Results Thread #2
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MS-01: Results Thread #2 | 90 comments
Democratic lead from start to finish?
Just declared, Childers wins!
Yes! DeSoto is all in!
And we're still in the lead!

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
WE WON!
AP calls it. They are talking about it on MSNBC talking about how important it is!

CONGRATS! Props to Trent and Cottomouth and all the great locals!

Yeah, stick a form in Davis...
he's done.
err....
make that fork...
[ Parent ]
DeSoto's Done
Childers ran 8 points better.  

Marshall's done.  Childers did six points better.

Pontotoc is done.  Childers did two points better.

Looking good.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

We may actually win by a 6-8 point margin
When does the new Tom Cole deathwatch thread go up?
Lordy you are impatient. :)
It's up now!
[ Parent ]
110th Congress: 236 DEM, 199 GOP
How great is that? Who wants to go to Wikipedia and update it first?

KELL
Tom Cole Death Watch Thread Time!
Also, how's Redstate taking it?
just checked over there - not enough pain for my tastes
wish they had been less realistic in their doom and gloom.  their time is ended, and America is again on the rise.  our long national nightmare is coming to an end :)
[ Parent ]
How's Redstate Taking It?
Who wants to venture forth and find us some entertainment? :D
Redstate is VERY slow loading...
Since few people usually go to that website I have to assume it's overloaded with people like us going there to enjoy their sweet tears of misery.
[ Parent ]
I seldom go there
I hate to give that site the hits. ;)  
Oh, that plus the nausea...  
[ Parent ]
Sorry bout the doublepost
I blame the internets.
[ Parent ]
hate to inject the prez race into this but...
republicans tried to put obama around childers like a millstone and he still won.  superdelegates are going to start coming out now.  as for the republicans, in the words of chris "tiebreaker" chizilla TIME TO HIT THE PANIC BUTTON!

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
speaking of the prez race:
a new SUPERDELEGATE was just born with Childers' win
[ Parent ]
since this race was all about obama
i suppose the NRCC is going to be releasing its predictions of obama winning missisippi's 6 electoral votes any day now?

It is difficult to get the news from poems, but men die miserably every day for lack of what is found there. --William Carlos Williams
[ Parent ]
MSNBC Just Showed a Map....
....with Mississippi as a battleground state for the fall.....seriously.
[ Parent ]
MS House Delegation...
3 Dems, 1 Rep... oh this is too funny.  And thta one MS Republican left is retiring this November.
You're right
I didn't think about that, but yeah, we took the delegation with this win.  

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
.
"10:15PM: Folks, sorry for this site crashing tonight.  We've been utterly slammed with traffic at a level that we haven't seen since election night '06."

hahahahahahahahahahahahaha :D :D :D

Though I'm not calling the race that's this close just yet.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

I wonder...
...if the other 199 Republicans would like to retire...

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
Actually about 25 of those 199...
Are not running for re-election.  Probably several more soon.
[ Parent ]
I mean retire...
...as in like now. :p

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
VITO FOSSELLA
VINO VITO  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens
[ Parent ]
Thanks Y'all
I can't thank y'all enough for all your help, donations, and positive thinking.  We really appreciate it down in Mississippi.  Now it's onto November!!!
From A Yankee
your more than welcome.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens
[ Parent ]
Now that we've got this seat, we're keeping it
In the last 135 years, MS-01 has been held by Republicans for only 13 years (Wicker). This is a Democrat seat and will stay a Democrat seat.
Congratulations
to all the local Dems in Mississippi. This was a tough fight and they gave it everything they had and pulled out a solid win. Onward to November, and a much larger majority.
Heck ya...
Congrats and thanks to Mississippi.  Hard to believe than my home state of FL has a FAR less progressive house delegation than MS!
[ Parent ]
Yeah, you right
There was an amazing amount of involvement and commitment on the ground, and that's a large part of what brought this one home.

Much thanks to all who gave of themselves.  

The Thorn Papers
Y'all come by now.

[ Parent ]
throws hat in air
etc etc

It is difficult to get the news from poems, but men die miserably every day for lack of what is found there. --William Carlos Williams
That's Three For Three...
in either red districts (Illinois 14), or red states (Louisiana, and now Mississippi)

November's going to be very interesting.

So much better than that my friend
We're talking the seat of the ex-speaker of the house (Hastert) a seat that Dubya won by 18 over Kerry (LA-06) and a seat that Dubya won by 25 over Kerry (MI-01).

Never thought in this age of global warming that I would be happy to announce this, but it is clear that this is tidal wave season. :)

[ Parent ]
A victory for economic populisim
and the 50 State Strategy.

This is such a great night to be a Democrat. Looks like Kleeb will win too.

Sweet
Guess that staffer "picking his nose in Mississippi" was worth something after all.  Beats a few more ad dollars.
[ Parent ]
whats the dem/rep ratio in the south now?


Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
Probably still Republicans-favored
Dems control the delegations in NC, MS (!), and TN by one.  Reps have GA by one.  FL, SC, TX, VA, KY, AL, LA are Republican by more than one.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Actually
Arkansas, you forget, is Democratic and Louisiana is down to only one seat lead for Republicans now.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens
[ Parent ]
Yeah
I did have Arkansas on there, but I rearrange things I forgot to put it back.  And I didn't know LA was that close.  If we can maybe beat Boustany, we can take that delegation.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Cazayoux
got us within one...4 Republicans, 3 Democrats.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens
[ Parent ]
LA-04
We might take McCrery's seat with his retirement this year (there's a Dem named Carmouche who I understand might have a pretty good cance at winning).
[ Parent ]
That win
would flip the Louisiana delegation back to us should Cazayoux and Melacon survive.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens
[ Parent ]
Melancon doesn't even have a legitimate challenger
And even in 2006 when he did get a legit challenge he won in a blowout.  No chance that seat is going anywhere this year.  Cazayoux could be tricky though with Jackson running 3rd party.
[ Parent ]
Yes, we are gaining southern seats back...
We had better take back more.  In 2012 republicans will likely control redistricting in some of the biggest southern states (FL, GA, TX).  
[ Parent ]
Before the 2006 election
Republicans held 82 of 131 Southern seats, we have managed to trim that by seven. The key is winning/keeping control of state legislatures to prevent us from getting screwed in redistricting. We control MS, AL, NC, LA, and AR and are the majority in the Tennessee House and Virginia Senate. We need 1 Tennessee Senate seat to flip the chamber and 5 seats in Texas to gain control of the state house and have a seat at the table in redistricting.
[ Parent ]
Georgia
While I don't think we'll have any say in redistricting, I don't honestly see how we can be any worse, other than adding a Republican seat in the Northern part of Metro Atlanta.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
We don't control MS, AL, or LA
Those states have repub governors and it takes a veto-proof majority to override.  No way we will have that.  Those states are more likely to have split party control with a compromise map ncessary in 2012.
[ Parent ]
We don't control MS, AL, or LA
Those states have repub governors and it takes a veto-proof majority to override.  No way we will have that.  Those states are more likely to have split party control with a compromise map ncessary in 2012.
[ Parent ]
I was speaking in terms of state legislatures.
Also, there will be gubernatorial races between now and redistricting time in those states. Does anyone know if Alabama governors are term-limited. I know Mississippi will be open next time. Lousiana I have trouble seeing us winning in 2011, but who knows what will happen between now and then.
[ Parent ]
MS is term-limited
It will be an open race in 2010.
[ Parent ]
56 Dems to 75 Rep.
If the South you mean the Old Confederacy:

Texas: 13-19
LA: 3-4
MS: 3-1
AR: 3-1
AL: 2-5
TN: 5-4
GA: 6-7
FL: 9-16
SC: 2-4
NC: 7-6
VA: 3-8

[ Parent ]
Yes, I just finished a tally and you nailed it
Florida may surprise republicans this November.  We have many top tier challengers this cycle.
[ Parent ]
Florida, North Carolina, Texas, and Virginia
They all look promising.  

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
I agree
We have at least one good pick up opportunity in each of those states. In Florida, we have almost a half dozen.
[ Parent ]
I add Kentucky to that and Maybe West Virginia
They're certainly not Midwestern or Northeastern.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Kentucky and West Virginia
Kentucky has 2 Dems and 4 Rep.
West Virginia has 2 Dems and 1 Rep.
[ Parent ]
WV, KY
WV is 2-1 Democratic.  KY is 4-2 Republican.

We also have chances in SC, VA (at least three and maybe four seats we are challenging), NC, and TX for more seats.

Looking up.  Bill Clinton won six of the 13 southern states in both 1992 and 1996.  Jimmy Carter won 12 of the 13.  One southern state would have sealed the deal in 2000.  Eighteem electoral votes would have done it in 2004.

[ Parent ]
Do not forget Alabama
We have a good chance to win the Alabama 2nd with Bobby Bright. We will pick up the Virginia 11th, other races in Virginia will be tough. In Texas-7 and SC-1, while I would call us the underdog, we have candidates that could suprise.
[ Parent ]
Pat Buchanan is a MORON
He claims Childers will lose this November if Obama is our candidate.  Fat chance.  Childers will win even bigger.
Yeah
He was also trying to say how Clinton has a better chance to win Colorado than Obama. They should at least put someone who knows what they're talking about on tv.
[ Parent ]
It's a Wash Actually....
....Clinton would do better among Hispanics in Colorado.  Obama would do better among youthful suburbanites and skiiers in Aspen, Vail, Breckinridge, and Telluride.  It's yet to be seen if Obama will really suffer at the hands of Hispanic voters in the general, but it's not an insignificant observation by Buchanan.
[ Parent ]
The polls I've seen
Show Obama doing much better.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Greetings from Idaho
where we hope to turn our own 1st District blue this fall after a narrow miss in 2006.

Great reporting, SSP! Congrats, Mississippi.

Go Idaho Democrats!
I've been intently following the ID-Sen and ID-01 races (and even a bit of ID-02)!  Y'all can do it this year!

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
Here we go... Redstate quotes!
 "if repubs don't recover significantly from this we are finished(the nation, its ideals, etc.) Think about the next 4 yrs of non stop "War on Global Warming" rhetoric"

"Conservativism cannot win ever, except among in-bred back-country, racist folk like me."

"Even with a moderate like McCain, any resistance to liberalism is hopeless."


OMG! Don't stop!
I particularly love the last one.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
My favorite
Was the guy who admitted to being a racist redneckAt least they are coming to terms with reality.
[ Parent ]
There's some snark there as well
One of them predicted losing Mississippi in the general as a joke.  

John McCain: Healthcare for kids?  Not for a Bush-McCain America.
[ Parent ]
But but but
i'm sure they "narrowed" the margin.. ya know. ;)
Childers up to 6% lead with 430 out of 462 in...
I never thought 6% would be the margin, he doubled his 3% from the previous election!

I'll say it again...

110th Congress: 236 DEM, 199 GOP

KELL

MS-01 current tally - Childers 53.3% Davis 46.7%
A mini landslide.
Hats off to the MS-01 voters!
With four elections in less than 2 months, a lot of folks were expecting voter fatigue.  Yet, after less than 70,000 votes in the last two rounds, the total will be well over 100,000 this time.  Great job voters!

Plus, anyone who argued that Childers's strong showing last time was due to low turnout in a very red district, well, that argument just got blown away.  His ultimate win will be significantly greater with many more votes being cast.  This is a true validation of the new Democratic representative from Mississippi!

Bottom line - the cash poor NRCC spent $3 million plus on three bright red districts and lost all three.  They can argue all they want about poor candidates or special elections being unrepresentative, but I can't remember so many strongly partisan districts flipping in specials.  November may be a Republican bloodbath, but all of us supporting Democrats in Senate and House races can't let up in the next six months!

So much for running against Obama and Pelosi
The last minute NRCC commitment to this race had the net result of increasing the margin of Childer's victory over the baseline 4/22 vote.  The Republicans are lost in the wilderness.  
Speaking of Super Delegates
I suspect that Childers may support Hillary Clinton for President.  The Obama story did not play well down here, so it might be politically wise for him to support Hillary considering all the white rural Democrats that make up the district.  I'll remind you of Heath Schuler's endorsement last week.
Childers should turn down a superdelegate vote
seriously... endorsing either Dem candidate will hurt him.  
[ Parent ]
GOTVGOOTVGOTV
It's as simple as that. Major kudos to all the county parties and involved individuals who did the hard work on the ground to make this happen.

And big up to all the folks who lent this race their moral and financial support.

And nuff respect to the good people of SSP for giving us the visibility we've had such a hard time gaining until now, for leading the charge in fund raising, and for being an all around lot of stand up folks.

We did it.

The Thorn Papers
Y'all come by now.

Thank you Mitch.
Thanks for all you did during this race.

Congratulations.  Enjoy this victory.

Change -- it's coming.

[ Parent ]
It's weird
...this victory thing. Feels good. But weird. I could get used it, though.

The Thorn Papers
Y'all come by now.
[ Parent ]
My general election race ratings for seats we won in specials
LA-06 - Tossup
I only say tossup due to a potential Jackson independent run which would seriously hurt Cazayoux.  If Jackson stays out it moves to Lean Dem

IL-14 - Lean Dem
Maybe even likely Dem considering Obama should do well in IL.  Plus it looks like we get Oberweis again.

MS-01 - Lean Dem
Mississippi loves incumbants.  McCain will carry the district big, but MS voters don't seem to have trouble splitting ballots.

My general election race ratings for seats we won in specials
LA-06 - Tossup
I only say tossup due to a potential Jackson independent run which would seriously hurt Cazayoux.  If Jackson stays out it moves to Lean Dem

IL-14 - Lean Dem
Maybe even likely Dem considering Obama should do well in IL.  Plus it looks like we get Oberweis again.

MS-01 - Lean Dem
Mississippi loves incumbants.  McCain will carry the district big, but MS voters don't seem to have trouble splitting ballots.

I think
you assesment is spot on. The good thing is we are starting to build up are bench in the south. I think Childers has statewide office potential and we need some strong up and coming Democrats, particuarly in Mississippi.
[ Parent ]
LA-06 re: Michael Jackson
May 12, 2008:
And, considering that African-American Democratic State Rep. Michael Jackson has already announced that he plans to run as an Independent against Don Cazayoux in the Autumn means that the Democrats could see their votes as divided in November as the Republican field did in the recent special election.
 
[ Parent ]
8 points!
With all but one precinct in (which is in Prentiss), Childers is winning by eight points.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
Childers got it to 8% all in! 54 to 46!
Now THAT is an absolute beating.  God this feels GREAT!
YYYYYEEEEESSSSS!!!!!


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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
Counties that flipped:
Yalobusha, Panola, Lowndes, Lafayette

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
So, this time...
Davis won only 4 of the 24 counties in the district.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
Wonder if Cheney's visit
hurt Davis in his base county DeSoto.  He really underperformed there this time around.
MS-01: Results Thread #2 | 90 comments

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