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MS-01: Results Thread #1

by: James L.

Tue May 13, 2008 at 6:30 PM EDT


334 of 462 Precincts Reporting
CandidatePartyVotesPercent
Travis Childers(D)39,11650%
Greg Davis(R)38,41850%

RESULTS: Northeast Mississippi Daily Journal | Columbus Dispatch | Clarion-Ledger

County-by-County Baselines (4/22 and 4/1 results)

9:58PM: DeSoto is almost all in (36/38), narrowing the race.  We still have some very friendly precincts left (Clay, Prentiss) and some not-so-friendly ones (Tate).  Looking optimistic, though.
9:56PM: Grenada is all in, going 49-51 to Davis.  Last time, Davis won it 54-40.
9:49PM: Lee is all in, and Childers wins it 58-42.  It was 58-37 last time.
9:46PM: Now it's a 2-point race.  A few more DeSoto precincts came in, closing the gap a bit.
9:42PM: Trent tells me that the mood is good at the Childers HQ.  Childers just flipped Lafayette County by 53-47.  It went for Davis by 44-51 last time.
9:35PM: Union came in, going from 39% on 4/22 to 44% tonight for Davis, but Childers stayed at 56%.
9:33PM: Big win in Panola for Cold Chillin' Travis (57-43), which Davis won by 1 vote last time.
9:28PM: It's not reflected above or on the AP's tally, but Childers is at 72% in Clay County with 10 of 14 precincts in.  That would be an improvement over last time by 6 or 7 points.
9:20PM: Now they're running even in Lowndes with 18 of 22 in.
9:17PM: Webster is all in, and Childers ran ahead by 6 points.  He's also at 28% in DeSoto with 12 of 38 in.  With the Lowndes performance, this is good news.
9:15PM: New update -- Lowndes is now reflected in the total above.
9:11PM: It's not reflected in the above totals or in the AP's results, but the Dispatch says that Childers is winning Lowndes by 59-41 with 2/3rds in.  Childers lost this county last time.
9:04PM: 7 of 38 precincts reporting in DeSoto.  Childers is at 26% there -- a slight bump from the 17% he got there last time.
9:01PM: Folks, just a reminder -- the Clarion-Ledger is your best bet for the fastest results by county.
8:56PM: Childers is up to 59% in Lee -- much better.
8:46PM: More numbers in, from Lee and Chickasaw.  Childers is running slightly behind his 4/22 total, but it's too early to tell just yet with only partial results from these counties.
8:41PM: Winston is in, breaking 6-4 for Childers.  Childers won 4-0 here on 4/22.
8:00PM Eastern: Polls are now closed.  It will probably take a few minutes before the first results trickle in, though, judging from past experience here.  Stay tuned.


Polls close here at 8pm Eastern, so we still have time for some pre-game chatter before we begin liveblogging the reults.

Will Bardwell has a few turnout updates here.  Our friends at Cotton Mouth and the Thorn Papers will be providing local color, as well.

It looks like turnout is up everywhere, but this could be an ominous sign for Childers: DeSoto county is printing extra ballots, which means that they'll have more than 17,000 votes cast in this election.
James L. :: MS-01: Results Thread #1
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MS-01: Results Thread #1 | 178 comments
a call to action
this is griff on the ground in aberdeen in ms-01.  if you can make the time, hit the virtual phonebanking center cited in results thread below.

we need to focus our efforts on monroe county.

the population center of monroe is aberdeen. . .i'm making calls here now.

other monroe county towns:
amory
smithville
parham
hatley
becker
greenwood springs
new wren
hamilton
new hamilton

remember to say "sir," "ma'am," "please," "thank you," and refer to groups of people as "y'all." the plural of "y'all," for the record, is "all y'all."

ok, so i'm being a bit flip.  thanks to davidnyc, trent, cottonmouth and all y'all for your support.  onward!

best,
griff
office manager, childers for congress

Anecdote
Someone on Daily Kos just posted in my diary from this morning that he voted in Tupelo today. The election worker said Lee County walk-in turnout appeared to be on track with three weeks ago but AV balloting was up 3 times as much. I have no idea what it means.
Hmmm
Republicans tend to vote absentee, hopefully not the case this time.
[ Parent ]
10 min to go!
Let's go Childers! Put a fork into the Republican Party's fundraising ability!
The numbers need to hurry
I'm watching the WV Primary, this race, and a special election race for the Georgia house.  Basically bupkis from all three right now.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
Why WV? The Presidential race is over.

[ Parent ]
I know.
Just like I know we're going to win that Georgia special election I was talking about.  I'm a political junkie who likes to see numbers change. :p

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Not to mention...
...I'm hoping Obama can have a respectable showing there and really finish Hillary off and shut the corporate media up.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Something About This Does Not Feel Too Good....
Here is some early number crunching from Will Bardwell's site.

Turnout was up about 60% at the precinct that he voted at, which was a 50/50 county.

DeSoto, which is Davis' bread-and-butter, has seen a turnout spike of about 42%.

One precinct in Lowndes County was up over 50%. Lowndes went about 60-40 for Davis.

There is going to need to be a BIG turnout bump in Lee and Prentiss.

Bottom line--If Lee County is at 10,000 votes, bet on Davis. If it is 14,000 votes, bet on Childers. For Prentiss County, Davis is sitting pretty if turnout is 5000 or less. Anything over 7000 votes, and I really start to like Childers' chances....

"You share your young with the wolves of the nation, there's nothing left til you pray for salvation."

--Black Rebel Motorcycle Club

"American X"

Uh-oh... doesn't look good in Desoto
Hopefully, other counties' high turnout will compensate with over 17,000 in Desoto...also AA turnout will hopefully benefit Childers.

Just to put this is perspective, this is a R+10 district. We shouldn't be competitive, but we are. We have forced the RNCC to spend a ton of money - whatever happens we have forced the GOP to defend their territory and they are struggling.

NRCC*

[ Parent ]
Any website with county by county results?
The two at links at the top of the thread don't appear to show each county's results.
Try the Clarion-Ledger.
Third link. :)
[ Parent ]
Ya I need to read...
Thanks, that was where I got the results last time.
[ Parent ]
LOL!
I do it all the time, and James is always nice enough to point out my stupidity :)
[ Parent ]
That figures
Republicans are good at GOTV, even in LA they did a pretty good job at that. The only question is if Childers and the DCCC similarly boosted turnout.
Everyone is going sour...
Are we already giving up and thinking that Davis is going to win this on GOTV efforts? I said winning in this R+10 district would be terribly difficult, and the GOP will do any and everything to not lose this seat. I think they are going "all in" on this, and won't let this one slip through their hands after they were given another chance after Childers missing 50.000001% by a few hundred votes.

I hope that Childers can keep it close and make a run at it.  

KELL

R+10 is misleading...
That only takes into account Bush's landslide wins over Kerry and Gore in the district.  Does anyone really think Kerry is representative of MS Democrats like Childers?
[ Parent ]
Yeah
but it can still be used as a comparative tool. For example, LA-06 was R+7 and probably less so after Katrina. This is obviously a very tough district.
[ Parent ]
Wonder if many Katrina evacuees relocated in MS-01
I know MS took in like the 2nd highest number of people relocated (after TX).  Anyone know if this this district took in many of them?
[ Parent ]
No idea
The district is around 25% African American though.
[ Parent ]
I know we did...
...in our neck of the district, but they were primarily well-heeled refugees.  

The Thorn Papers
Y'all come by now.
[ Parent ]
That's the reason we're competitive
Childers isn't your typical Democrat, I applaud him for his stance on the war,which is not as I would expect from a southern Democrat
[ Parent ]
Don't get discouraged early in the results
Last time around DeSoto reported early and it made it appear Childers would get blown out, which was far from the final result (a 49-46 win).
IIRC...
We lead for awhile, DeSoto came in and we were behind, and then later Prentiss + the rest came in and put us over the top again.  
[ Parent ]
Not quite.
Childers-friendly areas came first, THEN DeSoto, and THEN Prentiss.
[ Parent ]
LOL
We're all like a bunch of expectant fathers pacing the waiting room.  

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
Indeed
[ Parent ]
LOL, yeah
Not my favorite Pink Floyd song and I don't smoke, but I'll take a cyber cigar right about now.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
LOL
Best comment of the thread so far.
[ Parent ]
Well, I guess I would be . . .
. . . an expectant . . . aunt, I guess?

(Am I actually the only female regular on this site?)

[ Parent ]
(put a poll in your next diary) n/t

[ Parent ]
I'm a girl too!
I've posted more on this site as election season heated up.

Check out the 2010 California races (http://2010californiaracetracker.wetpaint.com) and help us take back Red California! (http://www.takebackredcalifornia.org)
[ Parent ]
CaliTex...
You knows youz womans aren't good in politics! lol haha look at me! I'm a horrible person! lol
[ Parent ]
Bit off topic...
but DailyKos reports exit polls show Hillary winning WV by about a 2-1 margin as expected.  Meaning about a 19-9 delegate edge there.  Not that it means anything considering she's down by around 150+ delegates...
That's what worries me
Personally I'm happy Clinton is still in the race, Imagine how bad it would look for Obama if Clinton dropped out and people in WV and Kent. still voted for Clinton over Obama. Still I hope Obama can get these states back for November, Especially Kentucky, I sorta want Mitch McConnell out of the Senate.
[ Parent ]
Completely meaningless if she won after dropping out
McCain still gets less than 80% of primary votes in some states despite no candidate actively for a couple months now and noone cares.  

Those who Clinton BS about Obama not winning over white voters is complete crap.  Obama won countless states in the midwest which are nearly entirely white like KS and NE.  He's also crushing Hillary in every poll among whites in OR.

[ Parent ]
...
If Huckabee or Romney would've won a state after dropping out, I actually do think that would've been humiliating for McCain and people would've definitely cared.  So I think it is a good thing, if only for that single point, that Clinton is still in it - the media would've had a huge field day if she dropped out after NC/IN and still routed him in a few more states.  Just my take.
[ Parent ]
Exactly.
It's that old principle that the Carpetbagger is always talking about-- IOKIYAR (It's OK If You're A Republican). 
[ Parent ]
I am imagining myself back in high school band
sitting with my fellow flute buddies and band nerds as well as the bands from the other schools that participated in competition, and we're biting our nails waiting for the judges to announce the final results. I have had my fair share of both disappointments and pleasant surprises. Let's hope tonight is more of the latter than the former!

Check out the 2010 California races (http://2010californiaracetracker.wetpaint.com) and help us take back Red California! (http://www.takebackredcalifornia.org)
Great Job Gene Taylor
I'm really proud that congressman Gene Taylor (Ms-4th) stepped up to the plate for this race, donating $2,000 to the Childer's campaign. He even came out for Childer's $1.25 Gas event!.
Alot of people attack Taylor as just being a DINO, but the fact is that he's stayed a Dem all the way through ('89-present) and is going out to help elect a new democratic congressman, just shows how great a Democrat he really is!

Go Childers!

Taylor is a decent guy
He represents a ridiculously conservative district and still votes with us around half the time.  He also worked tirelessly to get aid for his district after it was ravaged by Katrina.  

He also said he'd have punched the FEMA chief Michael Brown in the face if he saw him after the storm.  That alone makes him OK in my book.

[ Parent ]
Gene Taylor
Yeah I totally agree. We might not see things Socially, eye to eye, but economically we get along just fine.

If you ask me He'd be the perfect Democrat to have taken Trent Lott's senate seat this November (considering he ended up taking control of Lott's old house seat)  

[ Parent ]
Yes, I think he'd do well statewide
especially would have this year.  Considering he gets re-elected with 75%+ of the vote every 2 years in Mississippi's most conservative district alone gives him a strong case.
[ Parent ]
Come on results!
Still nothing from WV an hour after the primary and nothing from MS 20 minutes after. I need my election results!
It may be another 20-30 minutes for MS...
...just my guess.
[ Parent ]
Yes
Looking at how the comments went on here from the last MS-01 election in April (and, understanding that results may come in slower due to higher turnout), you're right about the results coming around 7:45 Central time.  DeSoto may come around 8:30-9pm Central, and the final counties around 9:30-10pm Central.

Again, turnout may delay everything, and I don't know that counties will report in the same pattern as they did last time, but at least that's somewhat of a guide for patterns tonight.

[ Parent ]
LOL Winston county is in 6 votes to 4...

There's the game Changer
It was 4-0. We found 2 more, but Davis found 4 more.
[ Parent ]
Actually reps got 3 votes to dems 4 there last time.

[ Parent ]
Turnout was down in that county... last time 7 voted.
OMG call the race for Davis.  We lose!
[ Parent ]
And that's an entire precinct!!!
Let's hope we can get that 60%-40% margin in the rest of the precincts!

KELL
[ Parent ]
Uh oh
If Davis continues to gain at that rate, it's going to be a very long night.
[ Parent ]
haha
I love you all! This was my favorite County last election! lol Massive increase in turnout! lol
[ Parent ]
A lead
A commanding 20% lead...
Clarion Ledger = Fastest
Winston - April
Childers 3 - Davis 0
Winston - May
Childers 6 - Davis 4
More accurate to quote total Rep vs. total Dem votes from last time
when comparing results.
[ Parent ]
I would think...
it would be best to compare from the April election? Basically whether we're up or down from that will give us an idea on how the night is going.
[ Parent ]
Yes, I mean comparing to the April election

[ Parent ]
Lee county half in... 56-44% for Childers, a little under his performance last time

Chickasaw: One precinct
Childers underperforming a little there, too.  However, you have to remember that there are more precincts to come in.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Can't tell much yet
unless we know which precincts are reporting, but Childers needs a lot more out of the remaining Lee County precincts.
Use the Clarion Ledger link
They show us what counties are reporting.  
[ Parent ]
Yeah I'm using it...
but we don't know which precinsts are reporting, so it's impossible to say whether or not Childers is gaining or losing from last time for sure.
[ Parent ]
I do.
[ Parent ]
gaining in choctaw and lee...
now he's at 59% in lee...  

It is difficult to get the news from poems, but men die miserably every day for lack of what is found there. --William Carlos Williams
Chickasaw is being gained on, no results in Choctaw I think...
Regardless, we aren't seeing the same percentage for Childers in the counties where he was a few weeks ago; but then again, we don't know the precise precinct that is reporting at this point.

It's going to be a long, long night. Regardless, we have to remember that even making this race close is a huge for us, after winning two GOP districts already.

KELL

[ Parent ]
Childers
Has underperformed in Lee, Chickasaw, and Winston.  Marshall is exactly the same.  However, Wiston had only 10 votes, and Most of Lee and Chickasaw are still out.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
Looking good in Marshall
If Childers keeps up the pace, it would be a surplus of 1600 votes compared to about 700 last time. Still impossible to know without knowledge of the precincts.
39 precincts in
We're back to a 60-40 advantage!

Check out the 2010 California races (http://2010californiaracetracker.wetpaint.com) and help us take back Red California! (http://www.takebackredcalifornia.org)
Too close to call
Too close to call, and I have to get to bed. Been up since 2 in the morning. Hopefully there will be good news when I wake up.  
DeSoto County....
Has this county reported in results yet?
No
but neither has Prentiss

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
I'm asking about DeSoto....
because it contains Davis' stronghold of Southaven, and he polled much higher numbers than Childers did in Prentiss. DeSoto went 81% for Davis and has a higher population, so that's what concerns me.
[ Parent ]
I know
I was just noting that neither candidate's base is in.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
I am curious though....
as to whether Davis' base would be stronger than Childers', for example if Childers sweeps Prentiss county, but Davis sweeps DeSoto. Due to the higher population in DeSoto, would Davis carrying his home county offset any massive sweep Childers has in his?
[ Parent ]
Yeah
Childers gained roughly 3500 in Prentiss and Davis gained about 8000 in DeSoto last time.
[ Parent ]
It's coming in...
First precincts don't look so bad.  Smaller than expected, and more pro-Childers than last time.
[ Parent ]
Childers dropped a point.


Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
We're doing great
though I am worried about DeSoto. I hope we can hold back the Davis surge when the votes from there come in.

Check out the 2010 California races (http://2010californiaracetracker.wetpaint.com) and help us take back Red California! (http://www.takebackredcalifornia.org)
Looking all right
Childers is doing about the same so far. It might very well come down to how much Davis can increase turnout in DeSoto and if Childers got a boost in Prentiss and the counties he should have won last time. If he can hold that loss to 2,000, he can pull out a victory. It's going to be close.
childers busts a move in marshall
8/24 has him @ 74%

...but down to 55-45 in lee, the more populous county...

It is difficult to get the news from poems, but men die miserably every day for lack of what is found there. --William Carlos Williams

Marshall
One third of the precincts are in and Childers is 300 votes away from his total in April!

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Marshall looking very nice so far!
With just 1/3 precincts reporting already about a 900 vote margin, that's bigger than last time so far.
desoto coming in...not bad
Childers is at 26% at this point with 7/38 precincts in.
Good Luck Childers!
I'm counting on you!
I hate to leave at the best part I have a Lab to go to, I hope to get back here as soon as I can
till then I wish the rest of you guys good luck! I know we can take this seat

It's a win-win situation for Democrats, even if we lose we still forced the Republicans spend what little vital money they have left, which won't look good for them in November!

desoto's coming in
just 7/38 precincts and davis has 74%.... not as much as last time's 81%... maybe we can hold him...

It is difficult to get the news from poems, but men die miserably every day for lack of what is found there. --William Carlos Williams
looking good across the board right now...
still anything can change ...i wish we had precinct comparisons!
[ Parent ]
suppose desotans don't like being called memphans after all


It is difficult to get the news from poems, but men die miserably every day for lack of what is found there. --William Carlos Williams
[ Parent ]
Here: I posted it up thread
[ Parent ]
That's county comparison
I mean precinct comparison because then you can see which precincts are coming in for each county. It's not going to be available, so don't worry! It's just my dream!
[ Parent ]
OOOH, my bad. Now I get it.
The only thing you can compare are full counties... Yeah.  
[ Parent ]
Assuming DeSoto's first results are representative...
... finishing it up should net Davis another ~4500 votes.  Meaning, Childers needs to net only 3000 votes elsewhere.  This is eminently doable.
an attempt at math...
say, isn't davis leading by about 1100 votes w/ 7/38 in? (about 2/11)

wouldn't that expand to a countywide lead of about 6000 votes? in a county he won by about 8,000 last time? so wouldn't we be the ones netting comparatively?

It is difficult to get the news from poems, but men die miserably every day for lack of what is found there. --William Carlos Williams

[ Parent ]
That's correct.
And the second set of precincts reinforced the first.

I'll go out on a limb, and say that we won this.

[ Parent ]
70% or Less
We have to keep Davis under 70% in DeSoto County.  It'll be bad news if he keeps it above that number.
more desoto in
with 12/38 he's at 72%...  

It is difficult to get the news from poems, but men die miserably every day for lack of what is found there. --William Carlos Williams
[ Parent ]
Lowndes
I like that Travis is pulling ahead in Lowndes County, a county that Davis won three weeks ago.
[ Parent ]
Well
Add in another 3,500 from Prentiss alone and then a couple more thousand from other counties plus the 2,000 advantage Childers already has, the math is looking very good right now. Davis needs about 8,000+ net votes from remaining precincts in DeSoto and Tate County and I'm still not sure if that would be enough for him.
Yalabusha County
April
46% Childers - 48% Davis

May
59% Childers - 41% Davis

Big improvement, especially vote wise.  

Yalobusha County
Davis won by 21 votes earlier but Childers wins tonight by 401.
lowndes - holy shit
last time we lost in lowndes by 9%

with the first 14/22 we're ahead 59-41

and it's relatively populous. that could be huge. anybody know if this is the same lowndes of the originaly black-panther-paw symbol "Lowndes Country Freedom Party" fame?

It is difficult to get the news from poems, but men die miserably every day for lack of what is found there. --William Carlos Williams

nope
that footnote of black history was in alabama...

in other good news, all of yalobusha is in and we won 59-41 , whereas last time we lost by two points. this is looking pretty nifty.

It is difficult to get the news from poems, but men die miserably every day for lack of what is found there. --William Carlos Williams

[ Parent ]
Yalobusha County
Childers lost there 48%-46% in April, won tonight big 59%-41% will all in.

Good sign, I think with Yalobusha and the results in Lowndes, he may have muted any gain Davis got in Lee.

And DeSoto is still looking better with about 1/3 in from the county.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

Childers did better in Webster and Yalobusha
than he did last time.  In both of these counties, all precincts are in.
% Margin wise, yes
In webster, we actually performed worse in total vote margin this time around.    
[ Parent ]
Yalobusha has flipped big time!
This time net Childers +400. Last time Davis by 200 I think.
Yalobusha
last time was 21 according to SSP main page county breakdown
[ Parent ]
Looking better
With some of the new counties pouring in, it looks like Childers has tipped at least 2 from Davis to himself, and he's running way better in Desoto than last time.  Some other areas aren't as good, but on balance I am more optimistic now that we may have it.
now lowndes is dead even...
guess the precincts are skewed

It is difficult to get the news from poems, but men die miserably every day for lack of what is found there. --William Carlos Williams
Still
Davis' magic number in Lowndes is 53%...he won 53%-44%...he needs to win it somewhere in the neighborhood of 55%-45% to keep at pace with April.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens
[ Parent ]
True, but...
In any county we lost 53-44 last time, I'd take a 50-50 split tonight.
[ Parent ]
Two more done.
Chickasaw is done.  Childers got 73% there, up from 67%.  He added 859 votes.

Alcorn is done.  Childers lost two points, but still won with 61%.  He added about 900 votes.


Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

Looking Good....
None of the vote yet in from Clay and Benton Counties, both of which are likely to go more than 60% Childers.  Half of DeSoto County reporting...so we're not out of the woods yet.
all of alcorn/chickasaw in
childers nets votes. won alcorn by  800 last time, this time by 1000... chickasaw by about 700 last time, this time more like 1200

It is difficult to get the news from poems, but men die miserably every day for lack of what is found there. --William Carlos Williams
Massive turnout in Alcorn
Democrats have done a good job with GOTV. Childers increased his margin by 200 votes compared to last time.
wins panola by 13 points
last time he lost it by one vote. good news.

It is difficult to get the news from poems, but men die miserably every day for lack of what is found there. --William Carlos Williams
Panola has flipped!
Davis won by 1 vote.  Childers has about a 650 vote lead with one precinct left.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
clay at 72%?
says frontpage. wish i knew where the number was coming from, but that has the feel of a harbinger of victory... short of a shock out of prentiss/desoto

It is difficult to get the news from poems, but men die miserably every day for lack of what is found there. --William Carlos Williams
Up by 8
This is looking good.

Can I change my prediction to 52-48?

Also can we get a new thread?  

Union's done!
Same percentage as last time 56% Childers, but Childers picked up 500 votes.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
Union
He only picked up 25 net votes.  But every vote counts!
I was looking at votes gained in the Democratic column


Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
He flipped Lafayette
Way cool.

The Thorn Papers
Y'all come by now.
wins lafayette
53-47, last time lost it 44-51. that nets him a few hundred votes. and desoto still at 73-27....    i can feel it.....

It is difficult to get the news from poems, but men die miserably every day for lack of what is found there. --William Carlos Williams
Lafayette flipped
The rural vote is swinging toward Childers it looks like.  Barring an unexpected swing in Prentiss or HUGE turnout in Desoto, I think Childers has won this.
More in
LaFayette has flipped to us: going from 44-51 to 53-47.  The county is all in.

Choctaw is done.  Childers turned a plurality in a majority, 47-47 to 53-47.


Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

de soto
word was that de soto needed more ballots, and they started with 17k. That leaves about 9k outstanding.

Chickens. Counting. Hatching.

The Thorn Papers
Y'all come by now.

Is it true
That Childers is outperforming himself in DeSoto from three weeks ago?
[ Parent ]
Yes
He's at 25% up from 17% in April.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens
[ Parent ]
Hard to tell
without knowing which precincts are in. But again, we're still lacking at least 5000 votes from there. Even at a continued 75/25 split, it'll be a hit on Childers.

On the flip side, his home turf of Prentiss isn't in, and his margin there should be able to absorb much of the De Soto hit.

The Thorn Papers
Y'all come by now.

[ Parent ]
Tippah all in
Davis gained ground.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
Not by much
and the Clarion Ledger still has not posted that apparent lead in Clay County.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens
[ Parent ]
davis creeps up to 75% in desoto
with 27/38 in, we're down by 6200 votes in desoto

considering it was 8000 last time, and there's increased turnout, it's likely the rest of desoto will tie it up, then prentiss will blow it our way

It is difficult to get the news from poems, but men die miserably every day for lack of what is found there. --William Carlos Williams

11 More Precincts in DeSoto....
.....this is almost like Nevada....where one county in the entire state can offset an overwhelming partisan advantage in the rest of the state.  Hopefully, Davis comes up short, but my predicted one-point margin for Childers is looking to hold up pretty well.
DeSoto almost done
Childers still has that 1000 edge in Clay and probably 3500+ in Prentiss.
lee back to normal
with everything in... last time we got 59% and netted about 1700 votes, this time it's about the same... davis is running out of opportunities to make significant improvements on last time

It is difficult to get the news from poems, but men die miserably every day for lack of what is found there. --William Carlos Williams
Where's Grenada and Tate?
Makin' me nervous here.
Grenada just came in: 49-49
better than last time for Childers.
[ Parent ]
Davis won it
54%-40% last time I thought?  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens
[ Parent ]
Actually 49 Childers, 51 Davis
But is was 40 Childers, 54 Davis last time.
[ Parent ]
Lee is done
Same percentage for Childers.  Davis gained ground.  However, the raw vote margin increased.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
Grenada in
Last time Davis won by 199, this time Davis only won by 38
Looking good so far
considering most of DeSoto is in, none of Prentiss is in and Childers still leads.
Benton, Grenada in
Childers wins Benton 71-29, up from 67-30.

Grenada goes for Davis again, but to a lesser extent.  Davis goes from a 200 vote win a to a 38 vote win there.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

Comparison
Of the counties fully in, Childers has outperformed compared to three weeks ago, net-vote wise, in all but two.  He's done much better in a few.  Things look good!
I'm calling it for Childers

yup
desoto's almost all in
and childers has a slight lead
and prentiss to go

no two ways about it

It is difficult to get the news from poems, but men die miserably every day for lack of what is found there. --William Carlos Williams

[ Parent ]
I'd have to agree
DeSoto doesn't seem to be coming through for Davis as he needed.  Davis needed at least a slim lead at this point to win.  Looking like Childers will win by even more than the 52-48% he leads by at this time.
[ Parent ]
I get nervous with these deep red districts
But yeah, DeSoto's almost all in...tough to see how Davis could come back.  

John McCain: Healthcare for kids?  Not for a Bush-McCain America.
[ Parent ]
i think
you may be on to something Randy. Prentiss hasn't even begun to come in and Davis' stronghold is all tapped out.

The Thorn Papers
Y'all come by now.
[ Parent ]
i think
you may be on to something Randy. Prentiss hasn't even begun to come in and Davis' stronghold is all tapped out.

The Thorn Papers
Y'all come by now.
[ Parent ]
Childers seems to be overperforming in most counties
especially so in DeSoto.  Looking very good.
Estimate time...
It looks like Childers has won by ~6,000 votes.  The big assumptions here are that Prentiss looks like it did a few weeks ago, and DeSoto's last precincts are representative of earlier ones.  Given the turnout increase in general, there's a potential for more than that margin.
concur
my swift rounding puts it at about 6500-7000, assuming increased turnout around the board and childers overperforming most blank counties by a few points

It is difficult to get the news from poems, but men die miserably every day for lack of what is found there. --William Carlos Williams
[ Parent ]
Ouch
Childers now leading by about 700 votes, but there are only 2 more DeSoto precincts left.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
Almost all of DeSoto is in and Childers still leads.
No way he loses now.
Yep.
The only remaining question is the margin.  Prentiss should pad it quite nicely.
[ Parent ]
Looks like seat goes to Childers
Still got at least probably 3500 in Prentiss and 1000+ in Clay and still other favorable counties except Tate.
again...
What is Childer' home county?  
prentiss
that's why the optimism

It is difficult to get the news from poems, but men die miserably every day for lack of what is found there. --William Carlos Williams
[ Parent ]
Prentiss

[ Parent ]
Ouch
Childers now leading by about 700 votes, but there are only 2 more DeSoto precincts left.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
again...
What is Childer' home county?  
Prentiss - nothing reported there yet
and he'll net over 3,000 votes there
[ Parent ]
Actually
Considering higher turnout he may net >4,000 in Prentiss.
[ Parent ]
Prentiss. He won it with 85% last time.

[ Parent ]
Here comes Prentiss
85-15% so far - same as last election. :)
Of the six
counties that have yet to report Childers won 5 of them last time. It is more than Prentiss to give us optimism
DeSoto all in
Childers get 25%.

The only enemy territory left is Tate and Childers is still up 1,100 votes...can we call this now?  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

It's all uphill from here
Childers may win by as much as 54-46% it appears.  The only thing left to decided is how much he wins by.
AP Has Declared Childers the WINNER!!!!
AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHh!!!!!!

236-199!!!

KELL

CHILDERS WINS!!!!!
The A.P. called it, and the Clarion-Ledger has followed suit! YEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Whoo Hoo - AP Calls It!
What a kick-ass win!
I never thought I'd see the day
Three years ago, I was a college senior, sitting in Poly Sci 235: Elections and Voting Patterns class. I had pointed out this was one of the districts the Democrats could never win. My professor wasn't so sure, but I made a case it would NEVER be in the hands of the Democrats.

The egg on my face tastes REALLY GOOD RIGHT NOW

236 Democrats
199 Republicans

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

Very well-put!
I think many of us have egg on our respective faces, but it does taste damn good, along with a healthy heaping of crow!
[ Parent ]
Egg?
[ Parent ]
Whew
Man, this feels good.

The Thorn Papers
Y'all come by now.
MS-01: Results Thread #1 | 178 comments

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