The other Oregon poll

has Obama over Hillary by 11.  Last poll his margin was only 6, so there is clear traction.

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by: ChadInFL @ Mon May 12, 2008 at 20:20:21 PM CDT

Definitely good news. (eom)

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by: James L. @ Mon May 12, 2008 at 20:21:46 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Early Voting

How does that effect the race? (In the democratic presidential nomination and the democratic senatorial race).

Is there early voting for the Senate and if so then it could be possible that Novick wins on the early voting and loses in the electing day voting (if the SurveyUSA poll is to believed as accurate).  

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by: sulthernao @ Mon May 12, 2008 at 21:45:11 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

According to the poll, Merkley led people who voted already

by 6 points.  

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by: JeremiahTheMessiah @ Mon May 12, 2008 at 21:49:03 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

This is Oregon, remember...

...there is only early voting.  It's all done by mail.

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by: JimM @ Mon May 12, 2008 at 22:08:49 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Good news

I think Merkley is the better general election candidate and he would be one of the top progressive Senators if elected. I really like his focus on labor and environmental issues.

Either way, I think both candidates have been producing very good ads in Oregon and will be very formidable challengers for that seat. Smith has got to do.

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by: Progressive America @ Mon May 12, 2008 at 20:24:54 PM CDT

when?

Can we expect the actual final results from Oregon? I know that they mail in all their ballots, I'm just curious, do they count them all the day that they're due, or does it take time after that?

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by: Venslor @ Mon May 12, 2008 at 20:31:23 PM CDT

They'll count 'em on 5/20. (eom)

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by: James L. @ Mon May 12, 2008 at 20:44:16 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Absolutely on 5/20

The back of the ballot envelope is very clear that they need to be turned in by 8pm on 5/20.

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by: JimM @ Mon May 12, 2008 at 22:09:41 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

A few thoughts in looking at the crosstabs...

- 43% of the likely voters have already voted.  Among those who already voted Merkley leads by 6.  Among the 57% who have yet to vote Merkley leads by 3.  Very bad news for Novick.

- 24% undecided - that is very high this late in the game.

- The younger voters make up most of the undecides.  I would have thought Novick would do better with younger voters but that's not the case.  Merkley leads all age brackets including 18-34.

- The one voting bloc that appears strange is Hispanic voters who make up 6% of likely voters.  Hispanics went for Neville over both Novick and Merkley.  Who the hell is Neville?

- Asian voters (9%)appear to be the bloc that will put Merkley over the top.  Merkley leads by a 56-10 margin over Novick among them.  What did Novick do or say to piss so many off???

-  All in all the crosstabs strongly point to a Merkley win.  Considering how many voters already voted for Merkley, Novick would need a huge lead among late deciders to win this.

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by: ChadInFL @ Mon May 12, 2008 at 20:32:28 PM CDT

IIRC...

SUSA's polling of NC had a sizable undecided block even till the end.  

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by: JeremiahTheMessiah @ Mon May 12, 2008 at 20:35:13 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

1/4 Undecided the Day before Election?

That just seems awfully high. I know NC had a pretty high undecided number close in, but I didnt' think it was that high, and it appears the undecided vote went to the known politican in the race, being Hagan.

I have a feeling the undecided voters will go for Merkley in this thing. Why? I haven't a clue, but we'll see in a week's time.

KELL

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by: ryanlkelly @ Mon May 12, 2008 at 21:05:34 PM CDT

May 20

Still eight days to go.

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by: Progressive America @ Mon May 12, 2008 at 21:14:01 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Sorry... my bad!

Right, I don't know why I was thinking tomorrow. I just made a comment on the MS-01 race, and must have still had that election date in my head.  

Thanks for the correction.

KELL

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by: ryanlkelly @ Mon May 12, 2008 at 21:20:22 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Yeah

Although I guess they should have started the mail-in process!

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by: Progressive America @ Mon May 12, 2008 at 21:36:30 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

They have their ballots

Yes, most people in Oregon have already gotten their ballots int he mail, and some have sent them in. I think ballots were sent out to voters before around the 1st. I sent my ballot in around two weeks ago.

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by: Hamtree @ Tue May 13, 2008 at 00:05:06 AM CDT

End of the also-rans

Only three candidates matter now - Merkley, Novick and Neville. If Neville's numbers drop, that likely helps Novick. If not, that helps Merkley.

There's also the youth element - Merkley may lead in the crosstabs, but not significantly and the margin of error for all subgroups will be high. Previous polling still makes me feel that if Novick wins it, it's on the back of Obama's youth support.

Other sub-groups - Hispanic and Asian are both pretty small groups in terms of estimated primary make-up. I don't entirely believe the results here, any more than I think Neville's strong performance amongst conservatives is indicative of much.

Other sub-groups that look like they might be important are Portland vs. the rest of the state and liberal vs. moderate voters.

Overall, I'd say Merkley has the advantage, but there are still enough undecideds to swing it either way.

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by: Englishlefty @ Tue May 13, 2008 at 06:21:33 AM CDT

Fair points

Though I think the revelation of Novack's abbrassive hyperbole about Obama in his claimed "holding other Democrats to account" are hurting him, and is/was a a major factor in my switching form Novack last year to Merkley.

The recent ads Merkley is running which show this problem with Novack's not keeping his mouth in check could account for him not being able to leverage more support from Obama supporters. Combine it with his Frohnmeyer gaffe exposes to other Democrats how Novack does not have the skill set to work well with others which, whether Novack and his boosters will admit or not, part of the crucial skill set to be a successful legislator.

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by: lestatdelc @ Tue May 13, 2008 at 10:23:09 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Almost there

It's  close, but Merkley's clearly surging. People are responding to his campaign and his outstanding record as Speaker of the Oregon House (you know, leading one of the most progressive sessions in Oregon history after leading the Democrats back into power [after 16 years in the woods!]).

Change is coming to our Country. Obama will take out McCain and take back the White House. And Gordon Smith's going down in Oregon at Jeff Merkley's hands!

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by: bdupree @ Tue May 13, 2008 at 10:02:53 AM CDT