wouldn't mind

having Recchia forced from the race... but i hope Harrison gets a shot. no reason to throw to the dogs a principled progressive campaign already making improvements on his strong showing against an unbesmirched Vino in '06... wish i knew more about Cusick, don't suppose there's any way to tell whether he'd sign onto an anti-war platform like harrison or where he stands on most national issues at this point.

It is difficult to get the news from poems, but men die miserably every day for lack of what is found there. --William Carlos Williams

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by: RichardPlatypus @ Thu May 08, 2008 at 12:45:59 PM CDT

"no reason to throw to the dogs a principled progressive campaign"

well other than that he might not be the best candidate to win a D1 district - or hold it.

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by: st paul sage @ Thu May 08, 2008 at 13:46:53 PM CDT

Aww shoot

I just blew a diary writing aobut Cusick.

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by: RandySF @ Thu May 08, 2008 at 14:06:13 PM CDT

So aside from what part of the district the candidate is from...

what is our ideal candidate for NY-13?  I'm assuming fiscally conservative/socially liberal?

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by: ChadInFL @ Thu May 08, 2008 at 15:07:41 PM CDT

It's D+1 - You'd think we could have a solid chance

even running a liberal.  But it sounds like the ideal candidate won't be based on the issues, but where the candidate is from, and how strong of a candidate is he.  

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by: JeremiahTheMessiah @ Thu May 08, 2008 at 15:20:20 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

A liberal?????

Dude, this is Staten Island we're talking about.  Working-class, largely Catholic, and, after 9/11, very hawkish.  Constituents of this district only lean left on economic issues, but are to the right on most everything else.  Running an outright liberal could be disastrous.  We need to run someone who will emphasize economic issues above all else, just the way Travis Childers has done down in Mississippi.

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by: The Caped Composer @ Thu May 08, 2008 at 16:08:34 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Well, they voted for Gore or Kerry over Bush.

Don't think it's a far stretch to say it's possible.  

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by: JeremiahTheMessiah @ Thu May 08, 2008 at 16:26:57 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Bush won Staten Island 56% to Kerry's 39%.

And while Staten Island is only 2/3 of the district, that makes it the district's center and sets up how far we can go toward the liberal side.

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by: wmlawman @ Thu May 08, 2008 at 16:40:36 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

yeah, but....

There is baseline national trend to liberal/Democratic, mostly to do with generational change.  Around 1% per year in fairly age-balanced and ethnically mixed districts and communities.  

Don't know quite how to peg SI in those metrics now- it's been five years since I was last there- but R performance should be down at least 2-3%.

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by: Baystater @ Thu May 08, 2008 at 18:36:50 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Even down 2-3% and they still have us beat.

Let's face it.  This is not your typical, liberal NYC district.

There's a reason why a Republican has represented it for so long.

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by: wmlawman @ Thu May 08, 2008 at 23:47:27 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Oh yeah, and I finally found it. The whole district went

for Bush in 2004 - 55% to 44%.

Staten Island really is the center of gravity there.

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by: wmlawman @ Thu May 08, 2008 at 23:45:39 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Charlie Cook changed NY-13 from Likely R to Tossup

And he's known for being cautious this early in an election cycle.

He made many ratings changes today.  Here they are according to whether they are positive or nagative for us.  The only move I really disagree with is moving OH-02 to likely R.  That race has a slight R lean at most with a great chance of being tossup by November.

Races moving in our favor
AK-AL   Young    Lean Republican to Toss Up
CT-02   Courtney   Likely Democratic to Solid Democratic
FL-21  L. Diaz-Balart Solid Republican to Likely Republican
FL-24   Feeney    Likely Republican to Lean Republican
IN-02   Donnelly   Likely Democratic to Solid Democratic
IN-07   Carson    Likely Democratic to Solid Democratic
MI-07   Walberg      Lean Republican to Toss Up
MI-09   Knollenberg  Likely Republican to Lean Republican
MO-06   Graves      Likely Republican to Lean Republican
NY-13   Fossella    Likely Republican to Toss Up
NC-11   Shuler      Likely Democratic to Solid Democratic

Races moving against us:
CA-11   McNerney  Lean Democratic to Toss Up
KS-02    Boyda    Lean Democratic to Toss Up
KY-03   Yarmuth  Likely Democratic to Lean Democratic
OH-02   Schmidt   Lean Republican to Likely Republican
OH-14   LaTourette  Likely Republican to Solid Republican

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by: ChadInFL @ Thu May 08, 2008 at 18:13:02 PM CDT

Source: http://www.cookpolitical.com/default.php

It's on the front page - no need for a subscription.

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by: ChadInFL @ Thu May 08, 2008 at 18:13:31 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Yup

I agree with all of those changes.  I am not entirely sold on the Schmidt race still but I really didnt follow Congressional races in 06 like I am now.  It ended in 06 with a 51-49 win for Schmidt and this time Wulsin is outraising her so I guess we'll have to see.  But dont you think presidential coattails will really help this race out?  Republicans stayed home in 06, I doubt they will again.  What is going to help us win is that there will be a lot more Democrats coming out to vote but with this districts insanely strong Republican district (R+13), the Republicans coming back out to vote will easily top the number of Democrats coming out to vote.  And this part of Ohio doesn't really seem like an area that will be fired up by Obama, conservative white voters and all.  (I am only making an educated guess on that though)

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by: Andrew @ Thu May 08, 2008 at 21:42:00 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Republicans didn't stay home in "06...

That is essentially a myth.  In 2006 numerous exit polls showed that it was independents combined with slightly higher than normal Dem turnout which caused the Dem wave.  Heck, 2006 wasn't even that great of a year for Dems in OH at the local level (we only gained OH-18) and lost numerous close races including OH-02.  Schmidt is as despised as ever and will be even worse off this year financially compared to Wulsin than she was in 2006.  Add in the fact that the Republican leadership has far less money to dump into the race to save her and I cannot see this race being won by either candidate by more than 2-3% as it was in "06.  No way it's a likely Rep hold.

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by: ChadInFL @ Fri May 09, 2008 at 09:37:29 AM CDT

[ Parent ]