agree with your take on mchenry

those are bad numbers for an incumbent in a party primary

---

by: jackdawkins @ Wed May 07, 2008 at 00:15:46 AM UTC

Worse than bad.

Jane Harman got only 60% in her primary a while back, but she had crossed her party on several key votes including the war vote.  What would be the source of massive discontent with Patrick McHenry, a highly visible and down-the-line conservative young Rep?

Actually, I know the answer to that; there was a loooong article about him in one of the monthlies (can't recall which) that explained how he had waltzed into that district as a College Republicans kid, whomped all over the establishment in a multi-candidate congressional primary, and then tried to stack every local race afterwards with his cronies, to prevent a challenge from beneath him in the future.  Every GOP officeholder over 45 resented him, so that would be an obvious well for this kind of discontent.

Pretty damn interesting though.  Wonder how 2010 will be for him.

Unfortunately, I don't think this was an ideological rebellion that might help our candidate, so much as a personalities and networks conflict, like the CO-05 race last cycle (Lamborn/Crank/Fawcett).  McHenry is less Bill Sali (obviously unfit leader) and more Steve Cohen or Andre  Carson (leader who squeaked into office and hasn't consolidated his base).  That means he won't have all of his base out helping him in November, but he also probably won't lose their votes to a Democrat either; they'll just stay home.

28, gay guy, Democrat, CA-08

---

by: texas dem @ Wed May 07, 2008 at 04:08:46 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

2008 is not over yet

Democrats have a genuine hero running in November in NC-10: Daniel Johnson.

http://www.danieljohnson08.org...

This is a solid red district, but Johnson is one heck of an opponet for McHenry.  Johnson won the Democratic primary with 60% of the vote:

http://www.charlotte.com/elect...

---

by: bear83 @ Thu May 08, 2008 at 03:52:39 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Glad Walter Jones is winning big...

We have zero chance of winning that seat regardless of which republican wins in the NC-03 primary, so I'll take a anti-war dove and someone who votes with us occasionally on economic issues over a right-wing nut anyday.

---

by: ChadInFL @ Wed May 07, 2008 at 00:18:25 AM UTC

Yeah

Walter Jones is as good as we're ever gonna get in that district.

---

by: James L. @ Wed May 07, 2008 at 00:19:04 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I call it for

Perdue, Hagan, McHenry and Jones. The Republicans governor primary is the one to watch. I'm rooting hard for Smith cuz he's CRAZY and would be easy to beat.

---

by: Populista @ Wed May 07, 2008 at 00:23:42 AM UTC

Perdue v. McCory

Papers in North Carolina have called it.

---

by: TXObserver @ Wed May 07, 2008 at 02:25:50 AM UTC

A solid win with huge turnout for Hagen; now the work begins..

Hagen gets the expected lopsided win, with no acrimony to speak of.  Hagen gets publicity, name recognition, and now the DSCC can be directly involved.  This is the winnable race that will determine if the Dems make the most of the opportunities available this year.  

Remember Dole's polling has been lousy, and Hagen was witin 7 in the last poll.  Now is the time to close the funding gap, to justify a significant DSCC investment.  

I hope this race starts getting the attention it deserves.  

---

by: vicupstate @ Wed May 07, 2008 at 12:52:50 PM UTC

Is Hagen the next Jim Webb?

http://www.realclearpolitics.c...

---

by: vicupstate @ Wed May 07, 2008 at 14:35:53 PM UTC

[ Parent ]