Another poll with bizarre crosstabs....

It has 89% of repubs for Bradley and only 74% of dems for Shea-Porter.  It also has nearly all undecideds as being indy or dem.  Even an internal republican poll wouldn't be THAT optimistic for Bradley.

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by: ChadInFL @ Mon May 05, 2008 at 14:49:17 PM CDT

I haven't really

thought shea-porter was going to win from the get go.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

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by: ArkDem the Ragin Cajin @ Mon May 05, 2008 at 15:01:38 PM CDT

I agree.

I already knew she'd be facing an uphill battle.  I'd say her biggest advantage will be Shaheen's coattails.

Hopefully, Shaheen's coattails will point up-ballot as well as down-ballot, and help our presidential nominee win the state.  I worry about NH, since McCain is unnervingly popular there.  Knowing it's such an independent-minded state, I get a queasy feeling foreseeing many voters casting ballots for McCain and Shaheen.  How that will affect Shea-Porter remains to be seen.

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by: The Caped Composer @ Mon May 05, 2008 at 15:41:37 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

it's jsut she won on such a huge

fluke in 06, and now Bradley's running against her again. Two other things are that she's been an unabashed and somewhat controversial liberal in a Republican leaning district, and she's not raising much money and not running a traditional campaign, like Hostettler used to in IN-08. I've read from various sources that her campaign is absolutely lackluster.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

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by: ArkDem the Ragin Cajin @ Tue May 06, 2008 at 21:20:54 PM CDT

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NH 01

The poll for NH - 01 is depressing but it does not surprise me.  Shea-Porter won two years ago in a big year for democrats, especially in NH.  However, since then she has not raised much money nor has she done a lot of visible things in the district.  

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by: AndTun1 @ Mon May 05, 2008 at 16:16:39 PM CDT

She's raising a ton more compared to her first run for

congress.  She only raised 350K in 2006 altogether.  In 2008 she is on her way to raise ~$1,000,000

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by: JeremiahTheMessiah @ Mon May 05, 2008 at 17:33:02 PM CDT

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Even more

Some of that money came literally at the end.  Shea-Porter was only able to spend $291 K (rather than $360 K raised) including a bruising primary against Jim Craig. Bradley was the guy who spent $1 million bucks and had no primary.  Well, now Bradley has a primary and he will presumably be roughed up and be at a money disadvantage instead of a 3.5:1 advantage.

From what I could tell from some very good campaign diaries on kos by her number 3 campaign person (with the candidate as number 1), Shea-Porter just campaigned non stop herself and spent a lot of shoe leather (particularly IIRC in Manchester).  

Would this be helped by a half million from say the DCCC or Emily's List?  Yup.  But it's Carol and she'll do it her way.  It may even work.

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by: David Kowalski @ Mon May 05, 2008 at 21:35:29 PM CDT

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Ridiculous

She needs to step it up.  We should not be picking up R+10 seats and have to be worrying about an R+1 seat in a state sharply trending blue.

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by: Andrew @ Mon May 05, 2008 at 17:12:18 PM CDT

Sheesh...

Come on people, don't take one poll from a not-so reliable pollster so seriously.  All you have to do is look at the poll crosstabs to realize it's a BS poll.  Carol will win this race comfortably, high single digits or more.  I have friends in NH and from what they tell me the state isn't about to up and go back republican this year after the 2006 landslide in that state.  Bradley was a straight-line Bush supporter in a state that nowaday despises Bush, a fact the voters up there have not forgotten.

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by: ChadInFL @ Mon May 05, 2008 at 18:17:10 PM CDT

No kidding. I completely agree

After I read a couple comments, it felt exactly like Saturday while we were sitting down 2,000 votes, with 70% of the vote in.  Everyone commenting sounded as though they took their pants off and were ready to s*** a brick and I was just fine.  Hell, I was enjoying the election tension.  

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by: JeremiahTheMessiah @ Mon May 05, 2008 at 18:31:40 PM CDT

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