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MN-Sen: Coleman Maintains a Ten Point Lead in New Poll

by: James L.

Sun May 04, 2008 at 11:39 PM EDT


SurveyUSA (4/30-5/1, registered voters, 3/12 in parens):

Al Franken (D): 42 (41)
Norm Coleman (R-inc): 52 (51)
Undecided: 6 (7)
(MoE: ±4%)

I haven't bought the premise that this race is a "tossup", and if this poll is any indication, Franken has some work to do before it can become one.
James L. :: MN-Sen: Coleman Maintains a Ten Point Lead in New Poll
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MN-Sen: Coleman Maintains a Ten Point Lead in New Poll | 39 comments
Franken
Well, we hope it is one that will BECOME a toss-up.  So far I can't see that Franken has been very successful in tying Coleman to Bush.  Seems to me that it's a pretty anti-war state.  I don't know the economy there is faring at the present.  The election remains 6 months off, but it's obvious that F has a great deal more work to do.
Work?
You mean like explaining why he didn't pay $70K in taxes owed in 17 states? Cuz it's gonna take a lot more than hard work to explain this one.
Yeah, that was stupid
I do believe it was basically he trusted his accountant and the guy screwed it up, but still, looks terrible.  Also, the fact is that Coleman is a canny politician, he is always there for the Republicans when they need him but will vote with the Democrats if his vote isn't necessary.  Its strategic, not principled, but it makes him tougher to pigeonhole as a far-right ideologue.  

Franken's got a long way to go.  

John McCain: Healthcare for kids?  Not for a Bush-McCain America.

[ Parent ]
Can we get Cersei back?

[ Parent ]
Ciresi*
Not if he respects the DFL's endorsement.  Jury is still out on that one though.  
[ Parent ]
does the general electorate know he's serious?
I think most of us are comfortable by now with the idea that Franken's a real candidate with smart positions and his homework done, but I wonder if the general electorate in MN still isn't convinced of that yet? Do they think he's still the Hollywood comedian?

I don't know, that's a possible guess.  

Are they reluctant...
...based on their experience with Governor Ventura?
[ Parent ]
A lot of work to do...
in quite a few states. Certainly the hope is that states like Minnesota, Maine, and Oregon will become very competitive. The polls aren't showing it right now, but things can change over the summer, especially when our candidates start spending a lot more of their money and hopefully the Democratic presidential nominee can come around and help out too. There's no reason why we particularly can't win those three blue states. If we're ever going to have an even somewhat better Senate, we need to have Democratic Senators in blue states.
Oregon and Minnesota are Mirrors of the presidential race
2+ Democrats running against each other instead of against the incumbent Republican.  (John McCain is a third term of Bush, and is therefore a quasi-incumbent)
[ Parent ]
NC governor too
except also no incumbent, but the two Dems sure are ripping each other apart! I think these races should be ok though in the end.
[ Parent ]
Franken will win
I won't pretend that it's not disappointing to see you write off a race that, 6 months away from the election, is kept to a +10 incumbent margin after an extremely bad press week for the incumbent.

At other points in this race, Franken has been ahead or even.

Franken is a good candidate, who is not only gifted on the stump, but adept at raising money. Most of all, it is Minnesota and it's '08, an extremely Dem year, AND it's Obama at the top of the ticket, who is a very popular candidate in this state - he'll have coattails.

Claims that Ciresi would have done better are frankly silly. Ciresi is a no-name candidate who would never have generated the attention to battle Coleman. Look at Allen in Maine, who is far better known than Ciresi in MN, losing badly to Collins. Franken is our only choice, and obviously he suffered bad press this week. But given the right kind of (DSCC) support, he can absolutely beat the opportunistic Coleman.

oops
I meant "an extremely bad press week for the challenger." Franken will redeem his image, and ultimately, this will come down to Bush disciple vs. not Bush disciple. My bet is on not Bush winning.
[ Parent ]
I'm not writing off the race...
However, I'm not going to take it for granted that Franken will be able to redeem his image.  Franken made two mistakes: 1) Not paying his taxes properly the first time and 2) Not vetting his finances thoroughly before he entered the race.

I sure hope this race will come down to a referendum on Coleman's Bush-supporting record, but you can bet that the GOP will use Franken's bad press to create a loud sideshow.

[ Parent ]
Amazing Texas Senate numbers from Rasmussen
http://www.rasmussenreports.co...

Cornyn 47 Noriega 43

Favourables:

Cornyn 50/37
Noriega 45/39

What a pity Noriega's fundraising isn't beter but those numbers are sensational. This is the kind of race, if it stays competitive where the DCCC could make a difference in evening up the money disparity a bit.  

It would cost 9 Million dollars just to break even
with Cornyn.  Why not spend that 9 million in states where it gives you an ensured victory?  I don't think we'll come out with 9 million to toss in Texas just to be competitive.  
[ Parent ]
Supposedly...
... Noriega's fundraising kicked up substantially after he won the primary.
[ Parent ]
I hope so.
It's not like I'm trying to piss on Noriega for fun, I feel there's a lack of realism when people are jumping on Texas, but we're only winning 2/3 of the equation for the perfect storm in this race.  Not enough to win a state like Texas in the presidential year.  We'd need the hat trick.  
[ Parent ]
Presidential Year...
Rasmussen also shows Obama down by 5 in TX (and Clinton down by 6).  Earlier polls (i.e. SUSA) showed a relatively tight race.  

I think TX might be significantly better for us than KY (particularly with Obama at the top of the ticket, given his Appalachian problems), assuming Noriega does start raising some dough.

[ Parent ]
I'm not saying
the DCCC should put a lot of money in, but it's great that TX even seems like a possibility. Smaller states are obviously worth more investment, as you get more bang for your buck but it is worth keeping an eye on Texas.

It should also be used by the DCCC in fundraising. They need to be saying to donors, and members of the caucus, yes we have a lot of money but we need even more because the playing field is so big this year.

Also, it is important to understand what money can do for you. It gets your message across and helps you GOTV. The Dems were outspent in races last year and still won. If the differential isn't much over 2-1 then there is a chance, above that very little.

As I say, I'm not advocating the DCCC pouring millions in now, but it will be in the mix depending on how well things go over the next few months.

[ Parent ]
"Use it or lose it" Campaign.
When do we start?  
[ Parent ]
This senate race . . .
. . . has pissed me off from the get-go.  I had a hunch at the outset that Al Franken would be, at best, a less-than-stellar candidate, and at worst, a train wreck.  This tax problem could well sink him, even before the right wing starts putting out attack ads with some of Franken's more incendiary quotations from his time in the talk radio world.  This race could've been ours on a platter, had we run any number of candidates from Minnesota's deep Democratic bench (Betty McCollum, R.T. Rybak, Mee Moua, Chris [no relation to Norm] Coleman, etc).  Yeah, yeah, Franken can fundraise better than any of those folks, blah blah blah . . . but, I remind you that money, as our old friends John & Paul pointed out, can't buy you love.  Franken can barrage every media market in the state with ads galore, and deploy staffers to plaster every house in every neighborhood across the state with campaign paraphernalia, but if the voters don't like him, it's not going to make a damn bit of difference.

In 2006, I went to the premiere of Franken's documentary in New York, where he himself gave a talk after the film.  I remember walking out of there with my friends, with all of us in agreement on one thing: "I hope he doesn't decide to run for senate after all."  If we, a bunch of east coast lefties, did not respond well to Franken's pitch, how do we expect the swing voters of Minnesota to do so?

"old friends John and Paul"
Yeah, I eventually got your reference, but please excuse me for trying to convince myself that Pete Domenici's first name actually was Paul!  I'm sure you know who I thought John was.
[ Parent ]
Ha!
Well, I'm sure if Lennon were here today, he'd get a good laugh out of being confused with a Republican-- it's probably the only time that's ever happened! (He'd probably be more accustomed to being confused with V.I. Lenin, as in that terrific scene in The Big Lebowski). 
[ Parent ]
Agreed
Minnesota's incredibly deep Democratic bench is going to be really fun in 2010 for the gubernatorial race but I just can't believe wanted to run against Franken.  I think he can win, but there is such a lingering doubt because these attacks really will be relentless and Coleman has plenty of money to do it.  We easily couldve gone with a conventional candidate but hollywood star Al Franken moved from Minnesota to take the DFL endorsement from any actual Minnesota politicians who dont have the baggage he has.

He has done an amazing job campaigning but the attack ads of the things he has said will be brutal....  Coleman and Franken will both be battling to make the race about their opponent and maybe Coleman voting with Bush and supporting him will be the bigger political liability like with the presidential race.

But if it hadn't been Franken coming in and scaring away every challenger because of his heavy weight status and extremely early entry, we would've had one excellent field of candidates and any of them would've beaten Coleman comfortably.

[ Parent ]
From another site...
From another site...

"Note that there are some weird crosstabs in this poll: Coleman gets 99% of the GOP vote (which seems an unlikely proposition) and Franken gets 67% of the Demoratic vote, leaving him far behind despite a 24% lead among independents."

There's something funny here.  

I knew there was something funny about these numbers
SUSA's numbers didn't change much, so I didn't know what everyone was getting all worked up about.  SUSA's been great in the primary, but I dunno here.  

I still say after the primary is over, and Democrats hammer the Republicans, we'll be fine.  It's annoying how a lot of them are getting a free pass over spring so far.  

[ Parent ]
SUSA was way off in LA-06...
They had Cazayoux winning by a 10 point margin.  He only won by 3.
[ Parent ]
yes but
the turnout was OVER 100,000 voters; NO pollster would have thought goper turnout would be nearly as high as it was
[ Parent ]
No. They were very spot on.
They had Cazayoux sitting at 49%.  Guess where he ended?  49%.  They were spot on right there.  

They had Jenkins at 41%.  Jenkins, got a solid block of the undecideds, which should be expected for a conservative district.  The undecideds were recognized by SUSA.  4% went to Jenkins, and the other 6% were dispersed among the other three candidates.  Very reasonable of a conclusion to derive from SUSA's poll.  

[ Parent ]
Exactly what I posted downthread...
Even in ultra-conservative states in the southeast republicans don't vote 99% for republicans, much less in a far less conservative state like MN.  Democrats don't cross-over to vote for republicans at a 27% clip either.
[ Parent ]
polls have shown a very tight race
until this bad couple of weeks (the tax issue - actually a very small amount of money).  There are many more weeks and many more story cycles to come.

And money can't buy you love, but it can buy an election or two (just ask Senator Dayton or Kohl or Governor Corzine).

Just like OR, NC, or OK, we didn't get our ideal candidate, but we can win any of these races.

Dayton, Kohl, and Corzine . . .
. . . and, for that matter, John Edwards, were all very conventional in their personae.  They all came from the professional world, not from entertainment.  So, yes, their tremendous amounts of money put them at an advantage in terms of being able to advertise and get their message out, but they were, inherently, candidates whose presentation did not particularly offend.  Franken, by contrast, could be viewed as non-serious, opportunistic, and/or obnoxious, based upon his public persona throughout his entertainment career (and especially since his radio venture).  Thus, I don't find the Dayton/Kohl/Corzine/Edwards model to apply in this instance.  
[ Parent ]
Sorry.. the poll is BS - look at the crosstabs
I know this is a SurveyUSA poll and they are widely respected, even if they were way off on the LA-06 poll, but the crosstabs make no sense.  

1. They have Coleman winning the republican vote 99-1%.  Republicans even in ultra conservative states like Mississippi voted more than 1% for Kerry in 2004.  No way in hell Coleman gets more than 95% of the republican vote.

2. The poll has Coleman getting 27% of the Dem vote.  Baloney.  I'd be stunned if he broke 20% of the dem vote.  With Obama winning handily in November on the top of the ballot in MN I somehow doubt many Democrats will vote for Obama and Coleman.

3. Indies going 57-33% for Coleman?  Umm... sure.  Coleman will probably get more Indy votes than Franken, but not a 24% margin.

4. Note that the poll has the entire 6% of undecided being either Democrats or Independents and Republicans with 0% undecided.  

The poll crosstabs are just fishy top to bottom.

adjusting
Can anyone adjust what the overall poll results would be with a more realistic crosstab breakdown?  Like, say, GOP Coleman support at 85-90%, Dem Franken support at around 80, maybe 85%, and Coleman's independent margin at around 10-15%?
[ Parent ]
Just did a quick estimate...
With Dems going 80/20 for Franken, Repubs 90/10 for coleman and Indies 55/45 for Coleman and my resule was roughly 52.5-47.5 Coleman.  That would be about where I think the race currently is.

And remember, MN has same day registration.  This means that pollsters usually underestimate Dem turnout, especially among young people who register on voting day in disproportionate numbers.  Jesse Ventura's win was a prime example.  He received a huge boost among young people on election day to give him the unexpected vistory.

[ Parent ]
Whoa there, Indies going for Franken!
Look again, Al Franken WINS the indies handily 57%-33%, NOT Coleman.

So adjusting the numbers, I would say Franken would WIN the seat.

[ Parent ]
Oops, I stand corrected
Sorry, I inverted the indy numbers.  That probably would put Franken in the overall lead.
[ Parent ]
Indies...
The numbers I read had Al Franken winning the Independent vote by 24%.  
[ Parent ]
hopefully ventura will jump in.
frankens biggest problem is that he's not taken seriously.  ventura jumps in, and franken looks a lot more dignified by comparison.

being normal is for the mediocre.
MN-Sen: Coleman Maintains a Ten Point Lead in New Poll | 39 comments

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