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LA-06: What to Look For Tonight

by: James L.

Sat May 03, 2008 at 7:03 PM EDT

Parish Calongne Jenkins Total GOP Cazayoux Jackson Total Dem
Ascension 637 893 1,530 936 180 1,116
East Baton Rouge 6,493 9,981 16,474 10,712 11,713 22,425
East Feliciana 211 575 786 720 781 1,501
Iberville 111 151 262 709 432 1,141
Livingston 1,252 2,706 3,958 2,950 342 3,292
Pointe Coupee 215 245 460 1,821 64 1,885
St. Helena 61 162 223 300 505 805
West Baton Rouge 205 258 463 1,255 591 1,846
West Feliciana 142 208 350 403 460 863

These are the turnout results from the April 5th primary runoff in Louisiana's 6th District, where 59% of all votes cast were for Democrats. Now, tonight's margin likely won't be nearly as favorable for Democrats, but the numbers provide us some clues as to what to expect.

Ascension and Livingston parishes are the GOP strongholds here. Iberville, St. Helena, and Pointe Coupee (where Cazayoux's home is located) are strong Democratic parishes in local and federal elections and Cazayoux should perform well here tonight. East and West Feliciana are historically Democratic, but have trended GOP in federal elections in recent years. Between the runoff performance and Cazayoux's small town profile, I feel optimistic about the Democratic chances in Feliciana tonight.

Due to sheer vote power, Baton Rouge will decide this election. This is Woody's hometown, and Bush won West and East Baton Rouge parishes by a decisive 55%-45% margin over John Kerry in 2004. Still, that's not an insurmountable margin for a down-home Southern Dem to work with, and the city of Baton Rouge itself has seen a large influx of African-American residents from New Orleans in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina. It will all come down to turnout here: Will the black vote come out strongly enough for Cazayoux, even though state Rep. Michael Jackson, defeated in the primary, is running TV ads telling his supporters that he'll run in November as an independent? The Cazayoux campaign and the DCCC have been working the field hard, but it's still, of course, up in the air until the returns come in.

We'll find out after 8pm Central/9pm Eastern tonight.

James L. :: LA-06: What to Look For Tonight
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East Baton Rouge should be the interesting
That appears to be where the biggest number of African-Americans are at and where Michael Jackson got much of his support in the Dem primary runoff.  If we have high turnout there for Cazayoux it will be a short night.  Hopefully the residents there have been thoroughly informed of Jenkins connections to Duke and the KKK.

They Have Also Been Informed, Presumably...
That Jackson is making noise about an Independent bid for Congress in the Fall.


"You share your young with the wolves of the nation, there's nothing left til you pray for salvation."

--Black Rebel Motorcycle Club

"American X"

[ Parent ]
So, if Dems Received 59% Of The Vote Then....
He can shed some 7-8% of this, and still win.

So, if this is true, these are the margins the Cazayoux camp has to have in order to win:

Iberville 74-26
Pointe Coupee 73-27
West Baton Rouge 73-27
Saint Helena 71-29
West Feliciana 64-36
East Feliciana 58-42
East Baton Rouge 50-50
Livingston 39-61
Ascension 36-64

"You share your young with the wolves of the nation, there's nothing left til you pray for salvation."

--Black Rebel Motorcycle Club

"American X"

Why Never totals at the bottom of tables!?!?!?
I was typically yelling at the SOS websites, but I am a firm believer that if you have a table of votes, there should be totals at the bottom for each candidate.

I'm off my soapbox now! :)


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