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LA-06: Election Results Thread -- Cazayoux Wins!

by: James L.

Sat May 03, 2008 at 9:00 PM EDT


512 of 512 Precincts Reporting.
CandidatePartyVotesPercent
Don Cazayoux(D) 49,70249.20%
Woody Jenkins(R)46,74146.27%
Ashley Casey(I)3,7183.68%

RESULTS: LA SoS | Baton Rouge Advocate | NOLA.com

11:19PM: The last three precincts are in.  The final result is Cazayoux 49.20%, Jenkins 46.27%.  What a ride!
10:55PM (David): Wow. What a rollercoaster.  The lesson here, obviously, is that if you don't know exactly which precincts have reported, projecting things out in a tight race is a very inexact game. Jeffmd seemed to have a good read on those remaining EBR precincts, but ultimately, what matters most is that Don Cazayoux pulled off an extremely impressive win here. Nice work indeed!
10:50PM: CAZAYOUX WINS!!
10:48PM: CAZAYOUX TAKES THE LEAD!
10:47PM: I guess the Louisiana SoS has gone for a smoke break.  Hang in there.
10:31PM: The final Livingston precinct is now in.  It's nothing but EBR from now on in.  Hang on...
10:27PM: Damn, Jenkins has pulled ahead in EBR again.
10:24PM (David): The envelope is looking better. Please don't get too excited, but if all of the outstanding precincts perform the same way those already counted have (on a parish-by-parish basis), then Cazayoux would come away with a very narrow win. Given how drastically EBR has shifted tonight, I wouldn't bank on anything, though.
10:22PM: EBR is continuing to come in for Cazayoux.  Come on, Han old buddy.  Don't let me down!
10:15PM: Cazayoux is pulling ahead in EBR now... it's looking much closer.
10:06PM (David): My back-of-the-envelope spreadsheet suggests that Cazayoux would have to run 17 points ahead of where he's been all night in the outstanding vote to be able to come back for the narrowest of wins. Not good.
10:01PM: This is not looking great -- Cazayoux is getting smacked in East Baton Rouge so far.
9:52PM: Keep in mind that with 16 of 21 precincts reporting in West Baton Rouge, Cazayoux is up big -- 1771 to 741.
9:49PM: Woody is starting this with a big lead (55%-41%) based in part on the strong returns from the very Republican Livingston Parish.  We have a ways to go yet.
9:37PM: As expected, Livingston is coming in strongly for Jenkins.  Feliciana looks tight.
9:18PM Eastern: The first results are trickling in -- likely absentees.  51% Woody, 46% Cazayoux.


Polls are now closed in Louisiana.  We'll be tracking the results as them come in above.
James L. :: LA-06: Election Results Thread -- Cazayoux Wins!
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Results are Showing Up on LA SOS Site
507 53.99% "Don" Cazayoux  -  
414 44.09% Louis "Woody" Jenkins  -  
4 .43% Peter J. Aranyosi  -  
8 .85% Ashley Casey  -  
6 .64% Randall T. Hayes  -  

KELL

I presume those are absentee ballots
That should give us a reasonable projection of how the night will go.  

[ Parent ]
Current results...
... exclude Baton Rouge.  Since Jenkins is only up by 5%, Cazayoux should win absentees.

[ Parent ]
Absentee
Looks like absentee votes. Democrats tend to do a bit poorly at absentee (if I remember Foster and Childers were behind on them), so it's looking ok so far.

[ Parent ]
East Feliciana
Jenkins got 168 to 89 for Cazayoux there for absentees. On election night it was 786 GOP to 1501 Dem. I sure hope it's not the Jackson voters staying home/not voting.

Does anyone remember the absentee numbers for Livingston?


I'll Be The First To Be Worried...
I don't draw conclusions from one precinct, but half of East Feliciana is in, and Jenkins has a lead of around 51-47 here.

In a place where Dems accounted for 65% of the votes in April, I am VERY concerned.

"You share your young with the wolves of the nation, there's nothing left til you pray for salvation."

--Black Rebel Motorcycle Club

"American X"


Not a good start so far.
Are we supposed to pull stronger towards the end of the night?

Hmmm
Looks like GOP turnout is up across the district. It's all going to come down to baton rouge.

Not Worried Yet...
Let Jenkin's strongest areas come in now, and then we can just have the Democratic strongholds come in and take-over. Livingston is of course strong for Jenkins, and that's the majority of the vote right now.

KELL

Pointe Coupee
Most of Cazayoux's best precinct has already come in. Jenkins was expected to win Livington, but by this much?

I'm a little worried, but Cazayoux can win this if he does well in Baton Rouge.


[ Parent ]
best?
anyone have the best and fastest updating site covering the election, not that SSP isn't amazing and all. lol but maybe a SOS page? lol

SOS link is at the bottom of orignal post
EOM

KELL

[ Parent ]
SOS site is linked in the diary
It's the fastest one.  

[ Parent ]
West baton rouge coming in
So far about 1771 to 741 with Cazayoux winning. If can duplicate that in East Baton Rouge, he should be fine.

With 91 of 512 in...the GOP lead begins it's shrinkage!
9,251 45.77% "Don" Cazayoux  -  
10,240 50.67% Louis "Woody" Jenkins  -  
97 .48% Peter J. Aranyosi  -  
533 2.64% Ashley Casey  -  
90 .45% Randall T. Hayes  -  

He's only 5% back at this point...here he comes!

KELL


It's not as bad as it looks
Like Daily Kingfish has said, early voting and Woody's strongest areas are what is in so far and he's barely ahead.  Cazayoux is in good shape, though it appears he'll win by less than I though.  I'd say a 4-7% win is more likely at this point.

did anyone?
did anyone ever say if this is a straight win, even if no one gets a plurality? Or does this go to a run off AGAIN, like in Mississippi?

Straight win, no runoff.


[ Parent ]
It is a straight win regardless of %


[ Parent ]
Whoever get the most votes goes to Congress
I've read that there is no run-off if this doesn't go a 50.00000000000001% winner. I can't fine the link, but I'll try to locate it. I've seen no where a date set for any type of run-off, like we did in MS-01 on 4/22 when the 5/13 date was well known.

KELL

[ Parent ]
Down by a 1,000 in East Baton Rouge
Hopefully those are Republican strongholds reporting. If Cazayoux can't close that gap, this is probably over.

Huge GOP Turnout
The Dem numbers look to be tracking roughly the same as the April turnout, whereas the GOP has doubled their numbers.  If East Baton Rogue doesn't start turning around soon we're gonna get blown out.

Yep
GOP increasing their turnout everywhere. Livingston has killed us.

[ Parent ]
What the hell happened here?
Please don't tell me Obama/Pelosi attacks are working

If it's Jackson supporters saying home, I'll be pissed.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens


OK starting to get worried...
I thought Cazayoux was supposed to gain big in E. Baton Rouge.  Right now he's getting crushed there.  

It's a Republican area
Lots of African Americans though and it looks like they stayed home.

[ Parent ]
I said it
I said when Jackson adn cazayoux were locked in a tight primary that if Cazayoux wins, Jackson supporters are going to stay home, I called it.

DAMMIT  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens


[ Parent ]
Wrong
We got the Jackson voters.  Look at the post below and compare to the votes we're getting now.  Cazayoux is getting the total Dem vote, plus a bit more.  Jenkins is getting double the GOP total vote compared to April.  The GOP conjured up a shitload of voters from somewhere, and they're running away with this.

[ Parent ]
How?
We really need to figure out how the hell the GOP managed to get their vote out. Was it the candidate? Is there anti-Obama, anti-Pelosi sentiment here? What is it?  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

[ Parent ]
I dunno
I'm not really from the area, so I can't give anything beyond the out-of-my-ass guesses, and even there I've got nothing.

On the bright side, the margin just dropped to a couple % points... don't give up!  We can still win this!


[ Parent ]
Stay off the SoS sight y'all ...
Let James and I, over at Daily Kingfish deal with getting the results ... the server just crashed!

Catching up a little
Now just 1,500 down in East Baton Rouge.

Just about everything's in but Baton Rouge.
Can we make up a 5,000 vote margin?

Well nearly all...
of the remaining precincts outside of E. Baton Rouge left to count are in Cazayoux areas.  Still, unless most of the East Baton Rouge precincts outstanding are African-American we ain't winning this thing.

East Feliciana
April 5th Primary
Democrats 1501
Republicans 786

Tonight
Cazayouz 1581
Jenkins 1599


Jenkins margin dropped to around 3,800...


Thanks SurveyUSA for getting my hopes up...


[ Parent ]
Maybe it was media attention
Probably boosted GOP turnout when they realized they could lose a seat. Plus all the rediculous ads they ran attacking Cazayoux as a liberal.

Well it's still going to be close, anything can happen in these last East Baton Rouge precincts.


[ Parent ]
Just Over 50% of the Precincts Reporting
Is this really over? This is going to string quite a bit if that's the case, given the money put in. And this was supposed to be the easier one compared to MS-01.

Maybe Red really does mean Red, and we need to more carefully pick our R+ districts, and not go this far out on a limb to do so.

Having said that, I want to see the rest of the districts come in.

KELL


The Jenkins margin just dropped
FWIW.



[ Parent ]
eh
looks like its pretty much over... unless a huge chunk of the votes left in E BR are voting dem... not giving up, just being realistic. Oh well, onto mississippi...

307 out of 512:
48.88% Jenkins
46.44% Cazayoux

Yeah, huge jump
Absentees must've come in from EBR?

[ Parent ]
Whoaa big jump for Caz...
Woody's margin was cut from 3,800 to 1,500!  Looks like the African-American precincts are kicking in.

Still Coming in...
28,350 46.44% "Don" Cazayoux  -  
29,841 48.88% Louis "Woody" Jenkins  -  
290 .48% Peter J. Aranyosi  -  
2,323 3.81% Ashley Casey  -  
244 .40% Randall T. Hayes  -  

Only a 1,500 vote lead for Jenkins right now with only 307 of 512 precincts reporting.

KELL


After that last EBR update...
my linear projection has Cazayoux by 59 votes. He'd have to maintain his 48.7%-45.7% lead there though.

Outstanding W. Baton Rouge should net us ~500 votes.
Based on the primary runoff results.  All we need is 1000 from EBR.  We've won this.

Run-Off??
With Jenkins so far ahead, I have been nervous.  But with 279 precincts counted, both candidates are below 50% and it has gotten much tighter.  Well over 4% is going to other candidates, so it is starting to look like a run-off.  

No runoffs... a 1 vote win is a win


[ Parent ]
No run-off
Louisiana ended run-offs for general elections. It's win or lose.

[ Parent ]
I stand corrected
Good to learn something on a Saturday.

[ Parent ]
Please let there be...
all African American districts remaining. Cazayoux can definitely win. He's basically won or tied everything except Ascension and Livinston.

We are going to net quite a few votes...
Outside of E. Baton Rouge.  10 of the 12 precincts left outside of E. Baton are in Cazayoux areas.

I just had a thought
If I remember 1996 correctly, wasn't he really far ahead of Landrieu most of the night only to have her take the lead at the very end when New Orleans reported...even while many thought there weren't enough votes in New Orleans to help her?


Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

TURNOUT
on both sides looks BIG(just sayin)

318 of 512
48.40% Jenkins
46.95% Cazayoux

Margin is down near 900 votes... looking good


If this isn't Bi-Polar, I'm not sure what is!
Ascension, 26 of 26
East Baton Rouge, 121 of 314
East Feliciana, 23 of 23
Iberville, 23 of 23
Livingston, 62 of 63
Pointe Coupee, 12 of 12
St. Helena, 13 of 13
West Baton Rouge, 21 of 21
West Feliciana, 17 of 17

Jenkins best districts are in or almost all in: Ascension (all in) and Livingston (1 remaining). Only Parishes remaining are EBR (193) and Livingston (1).

It's UNDER 1000 votes!

KELL


Only 1 precinct left outside of East Baton Rouge
And it's a Jenkins precinct in Livingstone.

sigh
Its a good thing that my hair is already falling out... Or elections like this would have been enough to push me over the edge. lol

Election Abuse
Who needs drugs when you have elections?

You can experience the highest of highs when a candidate wins and the lowest of lows when a candidate loses.


[ Parent ]
bah
Its faster and cheaper just to get someone to kick you in the stomach. lol  

[ Parent ]
Should we really be surprised at the turnout...
on both sides?  I mean there was only what, 5 million bucks dropped into this district?

Crap... Jenkins lead doubled to 2,000


Precincts remaining
Anyone know if the remaining precinsts favor Cazayoux?

These have reported so far. Has the university reported yet?

http://electionresults.sos.lou...


Last non-E. Baton Rouge district is now in...


Now it all depends on where the last districts left are located.
If they are heavily African-American we have a good chance.  If not it's over.

[ Parent ]
354 of 512
49.23% Jenkins
46.11% Cazayoux

Exclusively EBR precincts remain


Which is why I am VERY CONFIDENT
We can overturn a 2000 vote margin.  We can still win this.  Don't s*** bricks yet anyone.  

[ Parent ]
Wow
This is crazyness! I have been assuming all this time Jenkins would lose, but there is a small chance he might win! That would be a nice upset, and hopefully expose that yes, maybe these anti-Obama ads can work.

A cat can have kittens in an oven but that doesn't make them biscuits.

Jenkins has better than a small chance at this point..


[ Parent ]
So
Did you enjoy that Jenkins loss? Looks like anti-Obama ads don't work!

[ Parent ]
Looks like you spoke too soon.
:)

[ Parent ]
EBR Precinct Comparison.
The news from EBR isn't so bad.

In 2007, there was a close race for Forestry/Ag Commissioner where the Democrat, Bob Odom, lost EBR 49.75% to 50.25%.

The precincts currently reporting, Odom lost by 18%. The fact that Cazayoux is only down a few percent given these precincts isn't so bad.

Translation: the precincts reporting so far are Republican-leaning compared to East Baton Rouge Parish as a whole. Cazayoux should improve his margin.


Thanks
Was hoping someone had access to that kind of data to do a comparison.

[ Parent ]
yikes.
i expected getting home at 10:30 we'd already be swearing cazayoux in...  i hope east baton rouge hasn't been taking its meds and we get a manic blue swing...

It is difficult to get the news from poems, but men die miserably every day for lack of what is found there. --William Carlos Williams

Looks like we've hit a wall, long time since an update in ballot count.


This is good news
... for Rudy!

In all seriousness, this is probably good news.  The last-counted districts are almost always in urban areas, which are Democratic strongholds.  Should be a fun evening.


[ Parent ]
Did the remaining 158 precincts in EBR fall asleep?
Imean for the love...polls have been closed for almost two hours now! This isn't the Presidency we're voting on here, count the ballots and post the results!

KELL

And save my fingernails from the
treacherous torturous biting?  No way.  If elections didn't come down to nailbiters, it wouldn't be fun.  Learn to enjoy the wait.  

[ Parent ]
My how the worm turns...


404 of 512
Cazayoux 48.94%
Jenkins 46,31%

http://dailykingfish.com/


And DC is back on Top!


where?
Where?

20 M MD-01

[ Parent ]
Never mind, just lost it
I can't remember the last time I saw the lead change hands so frequently.  

[ Parent ]
Like I was saying. . .


[ Parent ]
Cazayoux up by >2,000 votes now.
That had to be Southern University that just came in.

SoS shows Cazayouz ahead!
U. S. Representative, 6th Congressional District
404 of 512 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Parish
38,588 48.94% "Don" Cazayoux  -  
36,514 46.31% Louis "Woody" Jenkins  -  
362 .46% Peter J. Aranyosi  -  
3,066 3.89% Ashley Casey  -  
312 .40% Randall T. Hayes  -

Need I say more?


Who lead already lost...
this is getting crazy

Sorry for the re-post!
Slow computer loading time I guess, lol

Maybe a win?
U. S. Representative, 6th Congressional District
508 of 512 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Parish
49,312 49.24% "Don" Cazayoux  -  
46,282 46.22% Louis "Woody" Jenkins  -  
443 .44% Peter J. Aranyosi  -  
3,705 3.70% Ashley Casey  -  
397 .40% Randall T. Hayes  -  

Game over - good guys win! Margin of vistroy about 3%


Not So Fast
With 439 precincts in, Jenkins is back up by under 1,000.

KELL

Not now - only 4 precincts left and Caz up by 3,000 votes - we won.


[ Parent ]
DC WINS
All but four precincts counted and he is up by 3,000!!

And then it REALLY turns!!!
508 in, and DC up by 3,000!!!

KELL

We win
Pop those champagne corks ladies and gentlemen.  You earned this one.

With 4 precincts outstanding, our boy is up by 3k.  Game, set, match.


Yes!!!!!
Yesssss! Woohoo, it looks like a win!!! just 4 precincts left! Yes, baby, come on!

I guess Woody Jenkins can blame W's incompetence...
for his loss.  Without the exodus of African-Americans following Katrina from the 2nd to 6th district we may not have won tonight.

WOW
That was crazy. I'm glad he won, but it was too close for comfort. The final margin is what? 49%-46%? Not bad, but I expected a little better.

I'm glad the Obama/Pelosi ad didn't work...or if it did, it didn't work that well.

I'd love to hear someone from the district give a good explanation or analysis of what played out here tonight. I have my politico opinions, but I'm from New York, so.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens


Ya it's kinda crazy...
Cazayoux's internal pollster was closer to getting the margin right than the much vaunted SuerveyUSA!

[ Parent ]
wow.
that was exciting.

It is difficult to get the news from poems, but men die miserably every day for lack of what is found there. --William Carlos Williams

BOOYAH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
GREAT JOB ON THE GOTV BOYS!!!!!!!!!!!!!(LOOK AT THE TURNOUTS)

Psychological Importance ...
Everyone knows how psychologically important it is to win in bright red districts.  But now, in addition, if we can pull out MS-01 on the 13th we'll drop the Republicans below the 200 seat mark in the House, something that never happened to the Democrats during the 12 years of exile.  Somehow a party really feels like a minority party when that first digit is a 1!

Go Childers!


Actually you are incorrect...
Democrats only held 198 seats going into the 1996 elections thanks to party switchers and special elections gaining Republicans seats after the 1994 landslide.

[ Parent ]
re: correction
Thanks, I missed that.  Still would be great to drop the GOP under 200.

[ Parent ]
No worries...
200 seats will be a distant memory after this November.  They'll be lucky to hold 185 seats after that.

[ Parent ]
HAT TIP TO RYAN(DAILY KINGFISH)
thanks for telling us EARLY to be patient..........

Good news
Louisiana Secretary of State
Unofficial Election Results Inquiry
Results for Election Date: 5/03/08
05/03/2008 21.50.23

From the Sec of State site

05/03/2008 21.50.23

U. S. Representative, 1st Congressional District
480 of 505 precincts reporting

9,750  22.16% Gilda Reed  -  
33,222 75.49% "Steve" Scalise  -  
767     1.74% R. A. "Skip" Galan  -  
267      .61% Anthony "Tony G" Gentile  -  

U. S. Representative, 6th Congressional District
508 of 512 precincts reporting

49,312 49.24% "Don" Cazayoux  -  
46,282 46.22% Louis "Woody" Jenkins  -  
443      .44% Peter J. Aranyosi  -  
3,705   3.70% Ashley Casey  -  
397      .40% Randall T. Hayes  -  


Runoff?
With under 50% we don't have to worry about a runoff, do we?

Thanks to anyone who knows the rule!


No run-off, we won.


[ Parent ]
I think we're going to need
another Tom Cole Deathwatch thread! :D

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


Quick question...
What are the match-ups in November?  Is Woody on the ballot again or do Republicans get a new primary?

Repukes get a new primary.
So who knows if Woody will stick around for that.

[ Parent ]
Yeah
I doubt that Woody will go through 6 elections in 8 months.

Although Childers and Davis will have 5 elections in 8 months, along with 4 elections in 63 days.


[ Parent ]
In case you want to revel in republican misery..
check out redstate:
http://redstate.com/blogs/vlad...

Ummm... the rethug tears of misery are so sweet.


kewl

I can't get enough of that.

[ Parent ]
thank you; THANK YOU, THANK YOU
WOW; JUST WOW.......... the repukes are committing hari-kari(?)(not the baseball announcer)>>>>>>>>>>>>>>.........

[ Parent ]
Favorite quote
"GOP will lose 90 seats. You heard it here first."

I can dream.  Not likely though.  That would give the Dems a +200 advantage in the House.


[ Parent ]
"Jenkins has lost 4 races. He's the LA Oberweis."
comment #38 there

Actually that's an interesting observation


[ Parent ]
It's true, he is...
However republicans are running dipshits like Jenkins and Oberweis in MANY districts across the country this November.  Just take a look at their supposed frontrunner in the MO-09 open seat race.  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...


[ Parent ]
CORRECT ME IF I AM WRONG
but; when it's all said and done, there will be OVER 100,000 votes cast in this SPECIAL election; anyone know if that's a record for a special?

It would have to be
Though IL-14 did have 98,998 votes cast in the last special election we won.  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I...

However I'm almost positive IL-14 has more voters than LA-06, so turnout should be a good deal higher here than IL-14 had.


[ Parent ]
thanks
i think you are right

[ Parent ]
The good news and better news
The good news: Louisiana's congressional delegation is now just 4-3 republican.  Going into 2004 is was 6-1 republican.

The better news: We have an 5-star recruit running in the open LA-04 district this November, which could give us a 4-3 delegation edge come November.


All 512 Precincts are in...
Cazayoux has a 3% win (not the 9% in the last survey), and a little over 2900 votes. Hopefully incumbent status gives him a boost come November when the turn-out will favor the GOP more with the presidency and Senate on the line.

But for now, CHEERS to Cazayoux - welcome to Congress! That makes it 235-199 with 1 vacanies (given LA-01 victory for the GOP). As pointed out in a previous post, winning MS-01 would make it 236-199! Mon excellent!!!

KELL


GOP turnout was massive
a lot higher than anticipated...if Cazayoux was able to pull this off even with really high GOP turnout...he should be ok.

November will still be close though.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens


[ Parent ]
This is Louisiana...
Incumbancy means more here than probably any other state in the country.  This is at worst a lean dem race this November.  And assuming Obama is on the ballot black turnout will be higher than ever.

[ Parent ]
Ashley Casey
Just out of curiosity, what kind of Independent is Ashley Casey?  I see Casey listed as an (I-R), so I'm guessing somewhat of a Republican, but what kind?  The type who would appeal to Democrats in a purely D-R election?  Or is Casey even more conservative than your average Republican?

Well her only high profile endorser was Sue Kelly
And Kelly was a somewhat moderate New York republican rep until her defeat in 2006.  I'd assume that means Casey is a moderate republican.

[ Parent ]
Republicans brought this on themselves
1st Baker had to quit early to force his party to defend this seat
2nd Republicans chose and settled with the flawed and polarizing Woody Jenkins
and lastly Bobby Jindal had to stick his nose into leadership races in the legislature, kicking Cazayoux into the race that he just WON!

Male 21 Dem Ca's 1st  

Sweet irony.
I love it.

[ Parent ]
DC is going to DC
I was so freaking worried about this but we pulled it out.

Hooray!

And MS-01 is 4 points more Republican so we're going to need to put more effort in it to win.

Let's do this!


well...
I think that we have, haven't we? Hasn't just a TON more money been spent in MS-1 than was in LA-6? I know, I know, people are going to whip out some amazing numbers... lol But isn't that the general idea. I think we honestly have a decent shot on that seat too... As long as the GOTV works well there.

[ Parent ]
I'd give us a 75% chance of winning MS-01...
We won the last run-off a couple weeks ago by about a 49-46 margin.  Unlike LA-06, there will be no 3rd party candidates on the ballot for this run-off.  My current prediction is 52-48% Childers.  Just like tonight's election, be prepared for the MS-01 race to go late into the night.  Childers strongholds were the last returns to come in during the last run-off, so don't get discouraged if he falls behind big early on, he should pull it out.  

The odd thing about our candidates in both LA-06 and MS-01 is that they both have great strength in the rural parts of their districts and less strength in the more urban parts.  Typically it's the other way around for dems.  


[ Parent ]
Actually
Childers was AHEAD big early on, then Davis' strongholds came in and put Childers behind, but then some more Childers counties reported putting him ahead.

That one was a real rollercoaster!


[ Parent ]
Really? 75%?
LA-06 was the Hat Trick, the Perfect Storm if you will.  
-We outspent them overall by $500,000
-Woody Jenkins was a terrible candidate
-Don Cazayoux was a great candidate

MS-01
-We are currently sitting very tight in overall spending
-Greg Davis isn't a terrible candidate
-Childers is a good candidate

Going from 3/3 to 1/3 and into a tougher district.  


[ Parent ]
few things
MS-01

- Most of the NRCC spending is pre-runoff, and since Childers led the field in the all-candidate election 49-46, Democrats have significantly outspent repubs.
- I'd say Childers is just as good if not better candidate than Don
- Greg Davis may not be as bad as Woody Jenkins, but he's still a pretty bad candidate, considering his primary opponent hardly endorsed him, has ties to the CCC (the present day KKK), and has generally been considered divisive and nasty.
- Dems have completely and wholly rallied behind Childers, especially his opponent. Dems like Michael Jackson did NOT rally behind Cazayoux.


[ Parent ]
Only one way to find out
Which criteria way more?

1 week and change to go.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26


[ Parent ]
I'll be interested in seeing the vote breakdown...
Judging by how the votes came in I have a feeling that Jenkins did better with whites than expected and Cazayoux pulled in a massive % of the black vote.  The last 100 or so East Baton Rouge precincts counted caused MASSIVE swings towards Cazayoux, probably meaning the black vote came up huge for him.

Black Turnout
I suspect the anti-Obama ads significantly drove up black turnout.  The actual numbers would be interesting to have to see if this theory is correct.

[ Parent ]
Interesting...
Here is a link to the ballot for the MS-01 run-off.  Looks like good news for us.  Apparently they do not put party affiliation (probably a plus in this district) on the ballot and Childers has the top spot of the ballot (another plus).  

http://www.sos.state.ms.us/ele...


so whose running
for the GOP primary in september? i think this close race may actually be good for us because it will encourage jenkins to run again in the fall.  he can say that with a republican presidential candidate at the top of the ticket, he'll be in good shape and he'll still be hard to beat in a primary.

the talk about jackson running as an "independent"  seems crazy.  he wasn't able to raise enough money to be competitive in a democratic primary, how could he raise enough to be competitive in a general?

cazayoux's big advantages for november are these:
1) he's a great fundraiser and will be way ahead of jenkins or any republican by the end of the republican primary - and being the incumbent won't hurt at all.
2) NRCC will not invest much in this race as it will be focused on defense across the country
3) he's congressman cazayoux and incumbency has all kinds of benefits
4) obama will be on top of the ticket and the D next to his name will be the same as the D next to cazayoux.

 



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