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LA-06: New Poll Shows Cazayoux Leading Jenkins By 9 Points

by: James L.

Thu May 01, 2008 at 12:47 AM EDT

From a new SurveyUSA poll obtained by Roll Call (likely special election voters, 4/27-29):

Don Cazayoux (D): 50
Woody Jenkins (R): 41
(MoE: ±4.5%)

Those are some very encouraging numbers, considering that voters are heading to the polls to decide this race on Saturday.  But here's the really amazing thing:

Despite enduring two weeks of constant attacks on the air from Republicans and independent conservative groups, Cazayoux had a net favorability rating of plus-15 (43 percent favorable, 28 percent unfavorable and 28 percent neutral or unfamiliar), according to the poll.

Jenkins, who came into the race with much higher name identification but who was known as a controversial figure, had a minus-13 favorability rating (36 percent favorable, 49 percent unfavorable and 14 percent neutral or unfamiliar).

So let's get this straight: despite $436K spent by the NRCC, $100K by the Club For Growth, $500K by Freedom's Watch, and another $150K or so by Leonard Grisby on an effort to re-brand Cazayoux as a serial tax raiser and lover of Barack Obama, Cazayoux still has higher favorability ratings than Woody Jenkins.  Remarkable.

Special election: 5/3.

James L. :: LA-06: New Poll Shows Cazayoux Leading Jenkins By 9 Points
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If I were going to edit my list, I would bump this
from Toss Up to Lean Dem now after seeing this.  Glad to see Cazayoux in the lead, especially from a polling firm that isn't doing it for the sake of an internal poll.  

I'm too lazy.  I'm just going to wait till Cazayoux wins it and then adjust all the numbers and pull LA-06 off the list.  Interesting thing here.  I put all the fundraising numbers together...

Travis Childers - $276,051
DCCC - $1,104,006
Democrats MS-01 Total - $1,380,057

Greg Davis - $577,781
NRCC - $594,518  
Republicans MS-01 Total - $1,172,299

Don Cazayoux - $809,806
DCCC - $912,000
Democrats LA-06 Total - $1,721,806

Woody Jenkins - $462,038
NRCC - $436,000
Third Party Total: $755,000
Republicans LA-06 Total - $1,653,038

House seats sure are getting expensive!
It's a good thing the DCCC has a big bank, that should fund about 40 candidates with a $1 million right now and probably much more than 40 by the time the elections roll around.

[ Parent ]
I was getting a little worried about this one with all that money being spent calling Cazayoux a radical liberal. If that's not working in this heavily Repub district, then they're really doomed this year.

one race at a time; one race a time AND we are DOWN in ALL races by 20 points..............

[ Parent ]
I was never worried. Liberal is losing its effect as an insult after seven years under conservative 'leadership.' Now all we need is a strong GOTV effect to bring this one home.  

[ Parent ]
I wish someone would make a concerted effort to make "conservative" a dirty word.  Afterall, conservatism has failed America.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
Reminds me of the last SUSA poll in IL-14.
Foster was up by a slightly smaller margin, and that ended up being pretty accurate...

WE ARE 20 POINTS DOWN; this is crunch time, the wind is in our favor; let's not blow it now; GOTV, GOTV, GOTV, GOTV, GOTV and, did i say GOTV............

GOTV, GOTV definitely.  No qualms with that.

But, seeking motivation in believing that the race is 30 points worse than a trusted pollster reports - that just rubs me the wrong way.  I don't have to set my clocks ahead 15 minutes in order to be on time.

[ Parent ]
" I don't have to set my clocks ahead 15 minutes in order to be on time. "
HAHAHAHA oh my God.  That's the best line I've read in a while.  I know exactly what you mean though.  My mom would do that, and then I'd just be confused as hell.  It was annoying and ridiculous.  

But I think it's justifiable in some cases, like, some of Obama's supporters are die-hard, work till the end, kind of guys.  They really like to throw that around on the facebook group.  I still hate when they do it though.  

[ Parent ]
i don't actually believe cazayoux
is down at all; but rest assured the repukes will be working like trojans for the next 80 hours(or so); thus, the old maxim in politics is still true(always campaign like you are 20 points down); basically meaning that complacency loses races AND trust me,our party has lost many a race in the last 72 hours by being complacent

[ Parent ]
Like NM-01
I talked to an Emily's List person who said that despite that debate gaffe by Patricia Madrid, had her campaign simply started doing field work at 6am instead of 8am on election day, they WOULD have pulled in enough votes to beat Heather Wilson.  2 hours more, and we would've won this thing, even with all the other distractions in the race.

[ Parent ]
don't need a weatherman to tell which way the wind blows
god, i hope cazayoux wins.  then we can hear the republicans trash jenkins the way they trashed oberweis.

i do love that line, too.  thanks.

What's the date range on the poll?
Note to self: get Roll Call subscription.

Delaware Liberal - biggest and best blog in Delaware.

You don't need Roll Call...
Survey USA has the crosstabs free on their website.

Poll was taken on 4/30 (Wednesday).  Margin of error 4.5%.  If Survey USA has us ahead by double the margin of error this late in the game you can take it to the bank.  At this point I HOPE Republicans waste a million more dollars on this lost cause.

[ Parent ]
About what I predicted earlier this week...
A Cazayoux win by mid to high single digits (probably high).

Also the poll shows only 18% black voter makeup.  According to the 2000 census the district was 33.3% black and that's not counting all of the new Katrina evacuees.  I know they have lower turnout... but it it really THAT much lower?  And I'm not buying Jenkins getting 15% of their vote either.  

Maybe those Katrina evacuees...
don't realize Woody Jenkins' ties to David Duke.  Someone needs to fill them in about his past.

[ Parent ]

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