Google Ads


Site Stats

SSP Cash Power Rankings: 1Q House Edition

by: James L.

Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 9:00 AM EDT


Back in 2006, DavidNYC posted a chart tracking the top 50 House challengers in terms of their cash-on-hand competitiveness. In other words, he divided challenger CoH by incumbent CoH to arrive at a "competitiveness" percentage for each race. It's a useful measure because, as David said at the time:

If you've got $500K, that's all well-and-good - but your opponent has $2M, then you've got a lot of ground to make up.

So let's take a look at the top 75 non-open seat House races this cycle in terms of each challenger's cash-on-hand competitiveness, listed on the far right. You'll notice that of the top ten challengers, eight of them are Democrats. Only 26 of the top 75 challengers are Republicans.

Rank District Challenger Party CoH Incumbent Party CoH Chal. %age
1 ID-01 Minnick D 327,909 Sali R 124,191 264%
2 TX-07 Skelly D 666,506 Culberson R 270,726 246%
3 NY-29 Massa D 565,320 Kuhl R 365,722 155%
4 WA-08 Burner D 921,615 Reichert R 698,035 132%
5 NY-13 Recchia D 325,175 Fossella R 248,496 131%
6 MI-07 Schauer D 751,359 Walberg R 604,466 124%
7 OH-02 Wulsin D 212,410 Schmidt R 176,670 120%
8 FL-24 Kosmas D 580,940 Feeney R 549,237 106%
9 GA-13 Honeycutt R 206,033 Scott D 195,432 105%
10 TN-04 Lankford R 201,117 Davis D 199,306 101%
11 VA-10 Feder D 700,046 Wolf R 715,954 98%
12 CT-04 Himes D 1,105,211 Shays R 1,137,726 97%
13 NH-01 Bradley R 516,105 Shea-Porter D 545,837 95%
14 IN-03 Montagano D 267,771 Souder R 293,000 91%
15 VA-05 Perriello D 500,274 Goode R 593,133 84%
16 MO-06 Barnes D 954,363 Graves R 1,132,310 84%
17 SC-02 Miller D 203,475 Wilson R 255,765 80%
18 AZ-03 Lord D 632,485 Shadegg R 937,672 67%
19 KS-02 Jenkins R 486,228 Boyda D 811,225 60%
20 FL-09 Dicks D 312,402 Bilirakis R 521,511 60%
21 FL-16 Valeche R 589,380 Mahoney D 1,032,397 57%
22 KS-02 Ryun R 459,048 Boyda D 811,225 57%
23 WI-08 Gard R 427,903 Kagen D 760,112 56%
24 NJ-05 Shulman D 245,549 Garrett R 457,521 54%
25 CA-50 Leibham D 239,584 Bilbray R 449,284 53%
26 KY-03 Northup R 428,205 Yarmuth D 811,722 53%
27 NC-10 Johnson D 166,188 McHenry R 325,663 51%
28 IL-14 Oberweis R 132,717 Foster D 262,939 50%
29 OH-01 Driehaus D 567,302 Chabot R 1,132,939 50%
30 MI-09 Peters D 644,931 Knollenberg R 1,336,212 48%
31 AK-AL Berkowitz D 287,306 Young R 604,268 48%
32 NH-01 Stephen R 257,871 Shea-Porter D 545,837 47%
33 CA-11 Andal R 531,817 McNerney D 1,153,586 46%
34 AZ-05 Schweikert R 514,092 Mitchell D 1,121,680 46%
35 NV-03 Daskas D 453,213 Porter R 1,033,693 44%
36 FL-08 Stuart D 316,211 Keller R 735,113 43%
37 FL-16 Rooney R 442,345 Mahoney D 1,032,397 43%
38 FL-25 Garcia D 316,069 M. Diaz-Balart R 747,694 42%
39 FL-21 Martinez D 592,605 L. Diaz-Balart R 1,451,793 41%
40 FL-08 Smith D 295,667 Keller R 735,113 40%
41 FL-13 Jennings D 446,436 Buchanan R 1,123,318 40%
42 TX-10 Doherty D 122,453 McCaul R 318,097 38%
43 TN-09 Tinker D 227,629 Cohen D 605,292 38%
44 VA-02 Nye D 222,936 Drake R 593,620 38%
45 NY-20 Treadwell R 928,931 Gillibrand D 2,474,445 38%
46 CO-04 Markey D 376,372 Musgrave R 1,014,007 37%
47 NY-13 Harrison D 91,131 Fossella R 248,496 37%
48 KS-03 Jordan R 307,599 Moore D 889,584 35%
49 GA-08 Goddard R 403,825 Marshall D 1,186,917 34%
50 IL-10 Seals D 745,275 Kirk R 2,252,039 33%
51 WV-02 Barth D 305,388 Capito R 926,562 33%
52 AZ-05 Ogsbury R 353,094 Mitchell D 1,121,680 31%
53 AZ-08 Bee R 525,439 Giffords D 1,672,821 31%
54 IN-09 Sodrel R 308,643 Hill D 991,212 31%
55 IN-04 Ackerson D 149,899 Buyer R 492,373 30%
56 CA-45 Bornstein D 104,267 Bono Mack R 344,124 30%
57 PA-04 Hart R 393,396 Altmire D 1,305,875 30%
58 PA-15 Bennett D 182,829 Dent R 615,534 30%
59 CT-05 Cappiello R 420,316 Murphy D 1,544,639 27%
60 NJ-05 Abate D 116,215 Garrett R 457,521 25%
61 PA-08 Manion R 416,736 Murphy D 1,659,350 25%
62 FL-16 Harrell R 256,151 Mahoney D 1,032,397 25%
63 PA-06 Roggio D 168,258 Gerlach R 714,579 24%
64 AL-03 Segall D 223,616 Rogers R 957,067 23%
65 PA-18 O'Donnell D 200,485 Murphy R 876,171 23%
66 IN-02 Puckett R 155,266 Donnelly D 715,526 22%
67 OH-03 Mitakides D 100,888 Turner R 496,409 20%
68 IL-13 Harper D 103,463 Biggert R 511,741 20%
69 NJ-04 Zeitz D 90,770 Smith R 468,385 19%
70 PA-10 Hackett R 174,569 Carney D 966,458 18%
71 FL-18 Taddeo D 300,532 Ros-Lehtinen R 1,722,168 17%
72 IL-06 Morgenthaler D 163,458 Roskam R 967,286 17%
73 NV-02 Derby D 133,763 Heller R 808,384 17%
74 IA-02 Miller-Meeks R 68,619 Loebsack D 425,501 16%
75 IA-04 Meyer D 108,605 Latham R 677,601 16%
James L. :: SSP Cash Power Rankings: 1Q House Edition
Tags: , , , , (All Tags)
Print Friendly View Send As Email

Don't see much of a pattern in terms of predicting who will win
6-4 from the top ten, 9-11 from the top twenty, but all very interesting nonetheless.

Go Michael Skelly!
I'd absolutely love to see this race appear on the Red-To-Blue program, as well as have to have the NRCC come to its defense... And i'd love it even more if we win this, and the best part is, it's possible!

There'd be a swell of Democrats if you showed
Open seats on here.  

NJ-03, AZ-01, NJ-07, VA-11, LA-06, MS-01, AL-02, OH-16, OH-15, NY-26, MN-03, IL-11, NY-25.  The chart didn't look as lopsided as the elections will be, and that's why.  


We'll do a separate Open Seat chart later. (n/t)


[ Parent ]
I thought Trauner (WY-AL) had nice numbers as well.
Why didn't he show up?  Or is it because that's an open seat as well?

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

Never mind, it says "non-open" at the top.


party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
Riles of thumb, NY+NJ
Last cycle, the rules of thumb were challengers who spent $1 million or more and managed at least 60% of the incumbent's expendidtures (including third party) had a chance.  It's way too early to draw the lines but Republicans are less likely to get massive cash infusions than in the recent past.  The Republican match ups top to bottom don't look as good astheir situations in 2006.  Loebsack trailed Jim Leach in cash while Miller-Meeks is at 16% for example.

Several interesting comparisons.  In New York State, Democrats took three seats from Republicans and the GOP is only really making an effort in one of the three seats (and being out cashed 2-1).  Two open seats are going pretty nuch unchallenged (NY-25,NY-26) and Eric Massa enjoys a cash edge in NY-29.  Even Ny-23 is wirhin reach with McHugh holdiong a 236,000 edge (261,698 to 15,415) vs. Oot.

Democrats also hold a huge open seat edge in NJ in the 3rd (Adler has $1,003,551 to Myers $288,100 or 28.71%) and the 7th (Linda Stender at $845,123 has a big edge over Kate Whitman at $307 K and Leonard Lance at $255 K;  Lance has the organizational edge and Whitman has the name).


WV-02: Barth did it in one quarter
What's really impressive about Barth's CoH competitiveness in WV-02 is she did all of that fund-raising in her very first quarter (not even a full quarter, more like two months).

She was an 11th hour recruitment for WV-02 when the original candidate (Unger) decided at the very last minute not to file. In fact, Barth came really close to out-raising the incumbent, ineffective Bush-McCain Republican Shelley Moore Capito, during her first quarter of fund-raising.

Even more impressive, Barth has never run for office before. How first time candidates could hit the ground running like that?


113 Free Passes
The FEC numbers for the first quarter show a whole lot of incumbent Democrats whose opponents have $0 totals for cash on hand.  This is a much larger total than unopposed and included token opponents who have not done enough yet to require an FEC filing.

Amazingly, 113 Democrats in the House currently have either no listed opponents or opponents with $0 cash on hand.That included 18 Democrats from California and 18 more from New York.

Dozens more have opponents who have a cash on hand balance of under $2,500.



Copyright 2003-2010 Swing State Project LLC

Primary Sponsor

You're not running for second place. Is your website? See why Campaign Engine is ranked #1 in software and support among Progressive-only Internet firms. http://www.mediamezcla.com/

Menu

Make a New Account

Username:

Password:



Forget your username or password?


About the Site

SSP Resources

Blogroll

Powered by: SoapBlox