Don't see much of a pattern in terms of predicting who will win

6-4 from the top ten, 9-11 from the top twenty, but all very interesting nonetheless.

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by: conspiracy @ Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 13:32:02 PM UTC

Go Michael Skelly!

I'd absolutely love to see this race appear on the Red-To-Blue program, as well as have to have the NRCC come to its defense... And i'd love it even more if we win this, and the best part is, it's possible!

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by: KainIIIC @ Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 15:31:01 PM UTC

There'd be a swell of Democrats if you showed

Open seats on here.  

NJ-03, AZ-01, NJ-07, VA-11, LA-06, MS-01, AL-02, OH-16, OH-15, NY-26, MN-03, IL-11, NY-25.  The chart didn't look as lopsided as the elections will be, and that's why.  

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by: JeremiahTheMessiah @ Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 16:13:52 PM UTC

We'll do a separate Open Seat chart later. (n/t)

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by: James L. @ Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 16:38:05 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I thought Trauner (WY-AL) had nice numbers as well.

Why didn't he show up?  Or is it because that's an open seat as well?

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

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by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 18:16:39 PM UTC

Never mind, it says "non-open" at the top.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

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by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 18:17:19 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Riles of thumb, NY+NJ

Last cycle, the rules of thumb were challengers who spent $1 million or more and managed at least 60% of the incumbent's expendidtures (including third party) had a chance.  It's way too early to draw the lines but Republicans are less likely to get massive cash infusions than in the recent past.  The Republican match ups top to bottom don't look as good astheir situations in 2006.  Loebsack trailed Jim Leach in cash while Miller-Meeks is at 16% for example.

Several interesting comparisons.  In New York State, Democrats took three seats from Republicans and the GOP is only really making an effort in one of the three seats (and being out cashed 2-1).  Two open seats are going pretty nuch unchallenged (NY-25,NY-26) and Eric Massa enjoys a cash edge in NY-29.  Even Ny-23 is wirhin reach with McHugh holdiong a 236,000 edge (261,698 to 15,415) vs. Oot.

Democrats also hold a huge open seat edge in NJ in the 3rd (Adler has $1,003,551 to Myers $288,100 or 28.71%) and the 7th (Linda Stender at $845,123 has a big edge over Kate Whitman at $307 K and Leonard Lance at $255 K;  Lance has the organizational edge and Whitman has the name).

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by: David Kowalski @ Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 22:12:56 PM UTC

WV-02: Barth did it in one quarter

What's really impressive about Barth's CoH competitiveness in WV-02 is she did all of that fund-raising in her very first quarter (not even a full quarter, more like two months).

She was an 11th hour recruitment for WV-02 when the original candidate (Unger) decided at the very last minute not to file. In fact, Barth came really close to out-raising the incumbent, ineffective Bush-McCain Republican Shelley Moore Capito, during her first quarter of fund-raising.

Even more impressive, Barth has never run for office before. How first time candidates could hit the ground running like that?

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by: WVaBlue @ Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 21:01:24 PM UTC

113 Free Passes

The FEC numbers for the first quarter show a whole lot of incumbent Democrats whose opponents have $0 totals for cash on hand.  This is a much larger total than unopposed and included token opponents who have not done enough yet to require an FEC filing.

Amazingly, 113 Democrats in the House currently have either no listed opponents or opponents with $0 cash on hand.That included 18 Democrats from California and 18 more from New York.

Dozens more have opponents who have a cash on hand balance of under $2,500.

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by: David Kowalski @ Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 04:52:38 AM UTC