|1. Larrry Kissell NC 8
The fact that Larry Kissell has already committed to another run makes this choice relatively simple. Still when use lose by around 4,00 votes against a long term incumbent with that large a spending gap something is happening. Kissell was supposed to be a third tier nobody and now he is a clear netroots hero. Congressman Robin Hayes will also find life more difficult with no one there who can tell him exactly how to vote. The district is winnable by the numbers also. Larry Kissell for congress.
2. Nancy Skinner MI 9
This is probably the greatest under-target in the nation and for that very reason Nancy Skinner should be given another shot in this district should she want it. One huge accomplishment of hers was to run through the considerable about of money Congressman Knollenberg had stored up over years and years. She ran a very good race and needs another chance. It also be noted this race was missed almost completely by the mainstream blog's that could have pushed it higher up. We might have missed a win here, as surely as the DCCC did.
3. Charlie Brown CA 4
This is a somewhat no brainier as the cloud of doubt of Congressman Doolittle continues to grow. Charlie Brown was able to run an extremely competitive race and He makes a great contrast to John Doolittle. I am excited for round 2
4. Linda Stender NJ 7
This was a very close race that and I believe Linda Stender to be the best possible candidate. Mike Ferguson is the type of member who gets weaker in the minority. Linda Stender could very well knock him off.
5. Darcy Burner WA 8
This race is extremely similar to the race just above. Relatively junior members just hold on and with a change in climate after the midterm, Congressman Reichert doesn't have all his friends to get his back. He seems more suitable for the transition than Mike Ferguson, but the district is more democratic. Darcy Burner proved herself as a candidate this cycle.
6. Dan Seals IL 10
This was a slight under target and the 53% for Mark Kirk shows that might well have been a mistake. Dan Seals ran a very good campaign with a positive results and there are already rumblings that Mark Kirk is going to try and move up or out. Dan Seals should go right back to putting pressure on Congressman Kirk
7. Tessa Hafen NV 3
Probably one of the more heart-breaking loses in the country as Jon Porter won with only 47% of the Vote. Tessa Hafen got 46% if she can just find a way to consolidate the Anti-Porter vote. I think she could very well. She certainly earned the right by taking a race others has given up on.
8. Gary Truaner WY AL
Barbara Cubin is one of the worst members of Congress by fire. She ran under 50% last time and is generally not liked. This will potentially make her vulnerable to a Republican primary challenger who would then be more likely to win the general. Gary Truaner did run a great campaign but Wyoming is just an extremely difficult place to pull off.
9. Larry Grant ID 1
This is probably the greatest shame because it is hard to beat a Republican incumbent in Idaho. No matter who it is. That Bill Sali won means he is going to be extremely difficult to beat now that he is a Congressman. Still Larry Grant's tough fight in the state would be a great value too it.
10. Charles Dertinger PA 15
This is probably my most difficult call. Charlie Dent needs a really good challenger. Charles Dertinger did everything right, except he raised no money. He could very well be the next cycle's Paul Hodes but he also might simply be someone who can't raise money at all. He would benefit from a primary challenger who will force him to raise some money, but he should probably be given another shot. No matter what happens this district needs to have a giant bulls-eye on it.
Erica Massa NY 29, Dan Maffei NY 25 John Pavich IL 11 NC 5 Roger Sharpe Mary Jo Kilroy OH 15